China’s space program has advanced considerably since the turn of the century. In addition to developing heavy-launch vehicles like the Long March 5 and building a modular space station in orbit, China has also embarked on an ambitious program of lunar exploration (Chang’e) – which has launched six robotic missions to explore the Moon’s surface since 2007. These missions are paving the way for crewed missions to the Moon by 2030 and creating a permanent habitat around the Moon’s southern polar region – the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS).
They also plan to send crewed missions to Mars by 2033, which will culminate in the creation of a permanent base there too. Earlier today, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the China National Space Administration (CNSA), and the China Manned Space Agency (CMSE) jointly released the country’s first long-term scheme for space science and exploration. Titled “National Medium—and Long-Term Development Plan for Space Science (2024-2050),” this plan elaborated on the basic principles, development goals, and roadmap for the country’s space science and exploration through 2050.
The plan revealed five major scientific themes it hopes to accomplish in three developmental stages between now and mid-century. These five themes contain 17 priority areas for future breakthroughs, outlined by CAS Vice President Ding Chibiao at a press conference earlier today. According to statements released by The State Council of the People’s Republic of China and shared via the China Global Television Network (CGTN), they include:
- Extreme Universe: Exploring the origin and evolution of the Universe and revealing the physical laws under extreme cosmic conditions. Key areas under this theme include dark matter and extreme Universes, the origin and evolution of the Universe, and the detection of baryonic matter.
- Space-time Ripples: Detecting low-frequency and primordial gravitational waves and uncovering the nature of gravity and space-time. The priority is space-based gravitational wave detection.
- Panorama of the Earth and Sun: The exploration of the Sun, the Earth, and the heliosphere to unravel the physical processes and laws governing the complex interactions within the Sun-Earth system. Priority areas include Earth’s cycle systems, comprehensive observations of the Earth-Moon system, space weather observations, three-dimensional solar exploration, and heliosphere exploration.
- Habitable Planets: Exploring the habitability of celestial bodies in the Solar System and exoplanets. Key priorities include sustainable development, the origin and evolution of the Solar System, characterization of planetary atmospheres, the search for extraterrestrial life, and exoplanet detection.
- Biological and Physical Space Science: Revealing the laws of matter movement and life activities under space conditions to deepen our understanding of fundamental physics. Key areas include microgravity science, quantum mechanics, general relativity, and space life sciences.
The plan also outlined a three-stage development roadmap between 2024 and 2050. For the first stage (2024-2027), China will focus on maintaining the operation of the Tiangong space station, carrying out crewed missions to the Moon, and commencing the fourth phase of its Chang’e program – which includes the launch of the Chang’e-7 and -8 missions in 2026 and 2028, respectively – as well as its planned missions to Mars. According to the program, five to eight space science satellite missions will also be approved during the period.
The second stage (2028 to 2035) will consist of the continued operation of the Tiangong space station (and expanding it to twice its current size), crewed missions to the Moon, and the construction of the ILRS. China is also expected to deploy about 15 space satellite missions during this phase. The third and final stage (2036 to 2050) calls for more than 30 space science missions to be implemented, with the intention of achieving “significant advancements in key areas reaching a world-leading level.”
Through this program, China hopes to address some of the most challenging fundamental questions and scientific issues of our time. This includes the nature of Dark Matter and Dark Energy, the origins of the Universe, extraterrestrial life (aka astrobiology), the evolution of the Solar System and its Planets, and the connections of the Sun-Earth system. Given the ambitious nature of the program and some of the wording used (“reaching a world-leading level”), it could also be seen as a declaration of intent.
For years, China has indicated its intentions to rival NASA as a major power in space. With this first-ever roadmap, it is clear that China’s long-term intentions are to replace NASA as a leader in space exploration and science.
Further Reading: CGTN, The State Council of the People’s Republic of China
China can spend tons of money on its space program as it is a communist society and the government is able to allocate funding easier than in democracies.
The larger context is that these plans have been coalescent for years, while recent economical and military upheavals have happened. China is no longer estimated to be able to dethrone US as the leading economical global power, and it has also been remiss in supporting Russia, Iran and now latest North Korea in invading Ukraine on European soil. (In addition to having provided Russia with inferior but massive amounts of munitions, now an estimated 10,000 North Korean troops are in transit to support the invasion according to South Korean sources.)
As it stands now, the ILRS with potential Russian cooperation is abrasive.