I'm a long-time amateur astronomer and member of the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO). My observing passions include everything from auroras to Z Cam stars. I also write a daily astronomy blog called Astro Bob. My new book, "Wonders of the Night Sky You Must See Before You Die", a bucket list of essential sky sights, will publish in April. It's currently available for pre-order at Amazon and BN.
Astrophotographer Damian Peach shares this spectacular image of comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring approaching Mars taken just hours ago. The faint comet shows a small, condensed coma and bent tail against the glaring orange glow of the brilliant planet. Most photos of comets passing by a planet or deep sky object are lucky line-of-sight pairings with the comet in the foreground and object light years away in the background. Not this one. Both Siding Spring and Mars lie at nearly the identical distance from Earth of 151 million miles (243 million km).
When closest to Mars this afternoon, Siding Spring is expected to shine at around magnitude -5 or about twice as bright as Venus. Mind you, that estimate considers the entire comet crunched down into a dot. But for those who remember, Comet Hale-Bopp remained at zero magnitude, 100 times fainter than Siding Spring, and made for one of the most impressive naked eye sights on spring evenings in 1997.
More recently, Comet McNaught climaxed at magnitude -5 in the daytime sky near the Sun in January 2007. It was plainly visible in binoculars and telescopes in a blue sky if you knew exactly where to look and took care to avoid the Sun. Would-be Martians are far more fortunate, with Siding Spring appearing high overhead in a dark sky from some locations, including that of NASA’s Curiosity Rover.
Comet C/2013 Siding Spring as it rises and sets over the Curiosity Rover this weekend October 18-19. Credit: Solarsystemscope.com
Right on time for today’s encounter, the folks at Solarsystemscope.com have rolled out an interactive simulation of Comet Siding Spring’s appearance in the sky above Curiosity. Just click the play button on the control panel above to run it live. Seen from Mars, the comet bobs along Eridanus the River southwest of Orion, passing high in the southern sky overnight. What a sight!
The comet nucleus is only about 0.4 miles (700 meters) across, but the coma or atmosphere fluffs out to around 12,000 miles (19,300 km). Seen from the ground, Siding Spring would span about 8°of sky or 16 full Moons from head to tail. Moving at 1.5° per minute, we could watch crawl across the heavens in real time with the naked eye. Wish I zoom to Mars for a look, but the rovers and orbiters will be our eyes as they study and photograph the comet during its brief flyby. As soon as those pictures become available, we’ll publish them here. Can’t wait!
Come Siding Spring comes out the other side!
While we’re waiting, amateur astronomers have been busy shooting additional photos and creating videos from their images. Fritz Helmut Hemmerich made this video from 1200-meters at Tenerife in the Canary Islands showing Comet Siding Spring immediately after its Mars encounter. One thing we know for certain is that the comet is intact after its close brush.
And find our more amazing photos and information at Sen TV, and you can follow them on Twitter at @sen.
The Moon’s a very dusty museum where the exhibits haven’t changed much over the last 4 billion years. Or so we thought. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has provided researchers strong evidence the Moon’s volcanic activity slowed gradually instead of stopping abruptly a billion years ago.
Some volcanic deposits are estimated to be 100 million years old, meaning the moon was spouting lava when dinosaurs of the Cretaceous era were busy swatting giant dragonflies. There are even hints of 50-million-year-old volcanism, practically yesterday by lunar standards.
The deposits are scattered across the Moon’s dark volcanic plains (lunar “seas”) and are characterized by a mixture of smooth, rounded, shallow mounds next to patches of rough, blocky terrain. Because of this combination of textures, the researchers refer to these unusual areas as “irregular mare patches.”
Measuring less than one-third mile (1/2 km) across, almost all are too small to see from Earth with the exception of Ina Caldera, a 2-mile-long D-shaped patch where blobs of older, crater-pitted lunar crust (darker blobs) rise some 250 feet above the younger, rubbly surface like melted cheese on pizza.
Ina was thought to be a one-of-a-kind until researchers from Arizona State University in Tempe and Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster in Germany spotted 70 more patches in close-up photos taken by the LRO. The large number and the fact that the patches are scattered all over the nearside of the Moon means that volcanic activity was not only recent but widespread.
Astronomers estimate ages for features on the moon by counting crater numbers and sizes (the fewer seen, the younger the surface) and the steepness of the slopes running from the tops of the smoother domes to the rough terrain below (the steeper, the younger).
“Based on a technique that links such crater measurements to the ages of Apollo and Luna samples, three of the irregular mare patches are thought to be less than 100 million years old, and perhaps less than 50 million years old in the case of Ina,” according to the NASA press release.
The young mare patches stand in stark contrast to the ancient volcanic terrain surrounding them that dates from 3.5 to 1 billion years ago.
For lava to flow you need a hot mantle, the deep layer of rock beneath the crust that extends to the Moon’s metal core. And a hot mantle means a core that’s still cranking out a lot of heat.
Scientists thought the Moon had cooled off a billion or more years ago, making recent flows all but impossible. Apparently the moon’s interior remained piping hot far longer than anyone had supposed.
“The existence and age of the irregular mare patches tell us that the lunar mantle had to remain hot enough to provide magma for the small-volume eruptions that created these unusual young features,” said Sarah Braden, a recent Arizona State University graduate and the lead author of the study.
One way to keep the Moon warm is through tidal interaction with the Earth. A recent study points out that strains caused by Earth’s gravitational tug on the Moon (nearside vs. farside) heats up its interior. Could this be the source of the relatively recent lava flows?
So the pendulum swings. Prior to 1950 it was thought that lunar craters and landforms were all produced by volcanic activity. But the size and global distribution of craters – and the volcanoes required to produce them – would be impossible on a small body like the Moon. In the 1950s and beyond, astronomers came to realize through the study of nuclear bomb tests and high-velocity impact experiments that explosive impacts from asteroids large and small were responsible for the Moon’s craters.
This latest revelation gives us a more nuanced view of how volcanism may continue to play a role in the formation of lunar features.
With excitement building as Comet Siding Spring rapidly approaches the Red Planet, we’ll soon have the opportunity to spot it through our own telescopes. Dark skies return this week with the moon now past full and rising later each night. Until recently, the comet could only be seen by skywatchers living in southern latitudes. Now it’s popped high enough above the southern horizon to see from mid-northern latitudes, albeit low in the sky. Observers with 8-inch (20 cm) or larger telescopes can follow the comet as it travels from Scorpius north to Ophiuchus and its encounter with Mars on October 19.
Until late September, the comet had been brightening as forecast based on the simple principle that the closer an object is to Earth the brighter it appears in the sky. Siding Spring came just shy of 1 A.U. of Earth in early September and has since been slip-sliding away. All through the first weeks of September it glowed at magnitude +9-10 and could be spotted in small telescopes trekking across the south polar constellations. Now on the cusp of its big moment with Mars, Siding Spring has been fading faster than expected.
It could be running low on exposed ice or concluding a long, slow outburst. Maybe it’s as simple as our changing perspective on the comet’s tail – we see it from the side now instead of looking down the tail where reflective dust piles up along our line of sight. No one knows exactly why, but given that comets are famous for their unpredictability due to their fragile nature and the varying rates at which they sputter away ice and dust, we shouldn’t be too surprised.
So what does that mean for observers? The most recent observations put the comet at about magnitude +11 with a loosely condensed coma and diameter of about one arc minute or a little larger than Jupiter appears in a telescope. It’s a small, relatively faint object now but should be visible in 8-inch and larger telescopes from a dark sky assuming it doesn’t “drop off the deep end” and fade even faster. With Mars nearby, finding the general location of Siding Spring is easy. The maps will help you pinpoint it.
The good news is that the comet is heading straight north and getting higher in the sky every night. The bad news is that it’s also dropping westward each evening mostly negating its northerly altitude gains. Those in the southern U.S. will have the best viewing window with Siding Spring 20º high at nightfall (14º in the central states and 6º in the north). To ensure success, find a spot with a wide open view as far down to the southwestern horizon as possible. You’ll make best use of your time and see the comet highest if you set up during evening twilight and begin searching as soon as the sky is dark. Given that Mars is 1st magnitude and the comet has faded more than expected, it may be difficult to see against the planet’s glare on the 19th. Not that I want to dissuade you from trying, but the nights leading up to and after the encounter will prove better for comet spotting.
The fluffball passed the glittery Butterfly Cluster (M6) in Scorpius on October 9 displaying an attractive curved tail pointing southeast. Tim Reyes of Universe Today calculated the current tail length at ~621,000 miles (1 million km) with a coma ~19,900 miles across (32,000 km). Closest approach occurs around 1:28 p.m. Central Daylight Time (18:28 UT) October 19 when the comet will miss Mars by only 88,000 miles (141,600 km). Dust particles leaving the coma will rip by the planet at ~125,000 mph (56 km/sec). Will they pass close enough to set the Martian sky a-sparkle with meteors?
According to a recent NASA press release, the period of greatest risk to orbiting spacecraft will start about 90 minutes after the closest approach of the comet’s nucleus and will last about 20 minutes, when Mars will come closest to the center of the widening trail of dust flying from the comet’s nucleus. Since the comet will barely graze the planet, dust impacts on orbiting spacecraft may or may not happen.
Back on Earth we can watch the daredevil pass by telescope or catch it live on the Web here:
Ready for Wednesday’s morning lunar eclipse? Some people – and I envy them at times – treat an eclipse more casually. They enjoy the show with no desire to set up a telescope or take a photo. For those of us can’t part with our cameras, here’s a little guide to help you get better pictures.
If you’re also into photography and would like to grab a few shots, here are a few tips on what equipment you’ll need and camera settings. This eclipse offers unique opportunities especially for the eastern half of the country because the eclipsed moon will be low in the western sky near the start of and during morning twilight.
In the Midwest at the start of the hour-long totality, the red moon will be about 20º (two fists) above the western horizon. From the East Coast the moon slips into total eclipse only a half hour before sunrise 6-7º high. So if you live in the eastern half of the country, find a site with a good view to the west.
A low moon means easier framing with a pleasing foreground like a grove of fall trees, a church or distant line of mountain peaks. And the lower it drops, the longer the telephoto lens you can use to enlarge the moon relative to the foreground. When the moon is high in the sky it’s more difficult to find a suitable foreground.
As the scene brightens during twilight, balancing the light of the dim moon, your photos will get even more interesting. Textures and details in foreground objects will stand out instead of appearing as silhouettes.
Use the table below to plan when to watch depending on your time zone. The blanks mean the moon will have set by the time of the event.
Eclipse Events EDT CDT MDT PDT
Penumbra first visible
4:45 a.m.
3:45 a.m.
2:45 a.m.
1:45 a.m.
Partial eclipse begins
5:15 a.m.
4:15 a.m.
3:15 a.m.
2:15 a.m.
Total eclipse begins
6:25 a.m.
5:25 a.m.
4:25 a.m.
3:25 a.m.
Mid-eclipse
6:55 a.m.
5:55 a.m.
4:55 a.m.
3:55 a.m.
Total eclipse ends
7:24 a.m.
6:24 a.m.
5:24 a.m.
4:24 a.m.
Partial eclipse ends
———
7:34 a.m.
6:34 a.m.
5:34 a.m.
Penumbra last visible
———
———
7:05 a.m.
6:05 a.m.
Exposures and lens settings
The full moon and even the partially eclipsed moon (up to about half) are so bright you can shoot a handheld photo without resorting to a tripod. Exposures at ISO 400 are in the neighborhood of f/8 at 1/250-1/500 second. Only thing is, all you’ll get is the moon surrounded by blackness. These exposures are so brief almost nothing will show in your foreground except for possibly moonlit clouds. That’s usually fine for the early partial phases.
Once the moon is more than half smothered by shadow, open up your lens to a wider setting – f/2.8 to f/4 – or increase the exposure. Let the back of the camera be your guide. If the images look too bright, dial back. If too dim, increase exposure or open the lens to a wider aperture.
While you can continue to shoot the partially eclipsed moon at f/8 from 1/30-1/125 second, you’ll miss the best part – the portion filling up with Earth’s red shadow. To capture that, break out the tripod, open the lens all the way up – f/2.8-f/4 – and expose at ISO 400 between 1/4 and 1 second.
You can also shoot at ISO 800 and cut those times in half, important if you’re using a longish telephoto lens. Remember, Earth’s rotation means the moon’s on the move and will show trailing if you expose longer than a few seconds. On the other hand, this won’t be a problem if you’re shooting with a wide angle lens though they have their limits, too.
During totality, expose anywhere from 1/2 to 5 seconds at f/2.8-4.5 at ISO 400. Let’s say you want to include both scenic foreground and stars in the picture using a wide angle or standard lens. Dial up the ISO to 800, open your lens wide and expose between 6-10 seconds. On the 6-second end you’ll catch only the brightest stars, but the moon won’t show trailing; on the longer end you’ll get lots more stars with some overexposure of the eclipsed moon.
Of course, you can go to even higher ISOs and shorten exposure times considerably. But in all but the newest, high-end cameras that comes at the price of increased graininess and less color saturation.
Where parts of the eclipse happen in twilight, even mobile phones may suffice. There should be enough light to capture a pretty scene with the moon just emerging from total eclipse and during the ensuing partial phases.
If you’re clouded out or on the wrong side of the planet for the eclipse, you can catch live webcasts from the following sites:
She’s gonna blow! Rosetta’s navigation camera recently grabbed our best view yet of the geyser-like jets spraying from the nucleus of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. They were taken on September 26 as the spacecraft orbited the comet at a distance of just 16 miles (26 km) and show jets of water vapor and dust erupting from several discrete locations beneath the surface along the neck region of the comet’s nucleus. Mattias Malmer, a 3D technical director, created the spectacular 3D views by draping the navigation camera images over a 3D model of the comet and then photographing it from two slightly different perspectives.
Jets form when the sun warms the comet’s coal-black surface, causing ices beneath to sublimate or change directly from solid to gas without becoming liquid. This is possible because of the near-zero atmospheric pressure at the comet. Pressure builds in the pockets of gas until they find escape through cracks or pores as plume-like jets. Comet dust along with the gas fashions the coma and tail over time. Something similar happens when you shake up a bottle of champagne and then loosen the cork. Trapped carbon dioxide (what makes the “fizz”) blasts the cork across the room.
Comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko rotating from darkness into light. (Mattias Malmer)
If you liked the still images, check out these videos by Malmer. He used the same draping technique and then animated the stills. Be sure to stop by his Cascade of Light blog for more images and videos when you get a chance.
Comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko rotating in 3D (Mattias Malmer)
I saved the best for last. What majesty!
3D rotation of Comet 67P/C-G with jets (Mattias Malmer)
Thank you K1 PanSTARRS for hanging in there! Some comets crumble and fade away. Others linger a few months and move on. But after looping across the night sky for more than a year, this one is nowhere near quitting. Matter of fact, the best is yet to come.
This new visitor from the Oort Cloud making its first passage through the inner solar system, C/2012 K1 was discovered in May 2012 by the Pan-STARRS 1 survey telescope atop Mt. Haleakala in Hawaii at magnitude 19.7. Faint! On its the inbound journey from the Oort Cloud, C/2012 K1 approached with an orbit estimated in the millions of years. Perturbed by its interactions with the planets, its new orbit has been reduced to a mere ~400,000 years. That makes the many observing opportunities PanSTARRS K1 has provided that much more appreciated. No one alive now will ever see the comet again once this performance is over.
Many amateur astronomers first picked up the comet’s trail in the spring of 2013 when it had brightened to around magnitude 13.5. My observing notes from June 2, 2013, read:
“Very small, about 20 arc seconds in diameter. Pretty faint at ~13.5 and moderately condensed but not too difficult at 142x . Well placed in Hercules.” Let’s just say it was a faint, fuzzy blob.
K1 PanSTARRS slowly brightened in Serpens last fall until it was lost in evening twilight. Come January this year it returned to the morning sky a little closer to Earth and Sun and a magnitude brighter. As winter snow gave way to frogs and flowers, the comet rocketedacross Corona Borealis, Bootes and Ursa Major. Its fat, well-condensed coma towed a pair of tails and grew bright enough to spot in binoculars at magnitude 8.5 in late May.
By July, it hid away in the solar glare a second time only to come back swinging in September’s pre-dawn sky. Now in the constellation Hydra and even closer to Earth, C/2012 K1 has further brightened to magnitude 7.5. Though low in the southeast at dawn, I was pleasantly surprised to see it several mornings ago. Through my 15-inch (37-cm) reflector at 64x I saw a fluffy, bright coma punctuated by a brighter, not-quite-stellar nucleus and a faint tail extending 1/4º to the northeast.
Mid-northern observers can watch the comet’s antics through mid-October. From then on, K1 will only be accessible from the far southern U.S. and points south as it makes the rounds of Pictor, Dorado and Horologium. After all this time you might think the comet is ready to depart Earth’s vicinity. Not even. C/2012 K1 will finally make its closest approach to our planet on Halloween (88.6 million miles – 143 million km) when it could easily shine at magnitude 6.5, making it very nearly a naked-eye comet.
PanSTARRS K1’s not giving up anytime soon. Southern skywatchers will keep it in view through the spring of 2015 before it returns to the deep chill from whence it came. After delighting skywatchers for nearly two years, it’ll be hard to let this one go.
138 million miles and 10 months journey from planet Earth, MAVEN moved into its new home around the planet Mars this evening. Flight controllers at Lockheed Martin Space Systems in Littleton, Colorado anxiously monitored the spacecraft’s progress as onboard computers successfully eased the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft into Mars orbit at 10:24 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time.
Shortly before orbital insertion, six small thrusters were fired to steady the spacecraft so it would enter orbit in the correct orientation. This was followed by a 33-minute burn to slow it down enough for Mars’ gravity to capture the craft into an elliptical orbit with a period of 35 hours. Because it takes radio signals traveling at the speed of light 12 minutes to cross the gap between Mars and Earth, the entire orbital sequence was executed by onboard computers. There’s no chance to change course or make corrections, so the software has to work flawlessly. It did. The burn, as they said was “nominal”, science-speak for came off without a hitch.
“This was a very big day for MAVEN,” said David Mitchell, MAVEN project manager from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. “We’re very excited to join the constellation of spacecraft in orbit at Mars and on the surface of the Red Planet. Congratulations to the team for a job well done today.”
Over the next six weeks, controllers will test MAVEN’s instruments and shape its orbit into a long ellipse with a period of 4.5 hours and a low point of just 93 miles (150 km), close enough to get a taste of the planet’s upper atmosphere. MAVEN’s one-Earth-year long primary mission will study the composition and structure of Mars’ atmosphere and how it’s affected by the sun and solar wind. At least 2,000 Astronomers want to determine how the planet evolved from a more temperate climate to the current dry, frigid desert.
Vast quantities of water once flowed over the dusty red rocks of Mars as evidenced by ancient riverbeds, outflow channels carved by powerful floods, and rocks rounded by the action of water. For liquid water to flow on its surface without vaporizing straight into space, the planet must have had a much denser atmosphere at one time.
Mars’ atmospheric pressure is now less than 1% that of Earth’s. As for the water, what’s left today appears locked up as ice in the polar caps and subsurface ice. So where did it go all the air go? Not into making rocks apparently. On Earth, much of the carbon dioxide from volcanic outgassing in the planet’s youth dissolved in water and combined with rocks to form carbon-bearing rocks called carbonates. So far, carbonates appear to be rare on Mars. Little has been seen from orbit and in situ with the rovers.
During the year-long mission, MAVEN will dip in and out of the atmosphere some 2,000 times or more to measure what and how much Mars is losing to space. Without the protection of a global magnetic field like the Earth’s, it’s thought that the solar wind eats away at the Martian atmosphere by ionizing (knocking off electrons) its atoms and molecules. Once ionized, the atoms swirl up the magnetic field embedded in the wind and are carried away from the planet.
Scientists will coordinate with the Curiosity rover, which can determine the atmospheric makeup at ground level. Although MAVEN won’t be taking pictures, its three packages of instruments will be working daily to fill gaps in the story of how Mars became the Red Planet and we the Blue.
For more on the ongoing progress of MAVEN later tonight and tomorrow, stop by NASA TV online. You can also stay in touch by following the hashtags #MAVEN and #JourneytoMars on social media channels including Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Twitter updates will be posted throughout on the agency’s official accounts @NASA, @MAVEN2Mars and @NASASocial.
Everybody loves pictures of the northern lights! If you’ve never tried to shoot the aurora yourself but always wanted to, here are a few tips to get you started.
The strong G3 geomagnetic storm expected tonight should kick out a reasonably bright display, perfect for budding astrophotographers. Assuming the forecasters are correct, you’ll need a few things. A location with a nice open view to the north is a good start. The aurora has several different active zones. There are bright, greenish arcs, which loll about the northern horizon, parallel rays midway up in the northern sky and towering rays and diffuse aurora that can surge past the zenith. Often the aurora hovers low and remains covered by trees or buildings, so find a road or field with good exposure.
Second, a tripod. You can do so much with this three-legged beast. No better astro tool in the universe. Even the brightest auroras will require a time exposure of at least 5 seconds. Since no human can be expected to hold a camera steady that long, a tripod is a necessity. After that, it comes down to a camera. Most “point-and-shoot” models have limited time exposure ability, often just 15 seconds. That may be long enough for brighter auroras, but to compensate, you’ll have to increase your camera’s sensitivity to light by increasing the “speed” or ISO. The higher you push the ISO, the grainier the images appear especially with smaller cameras. But you’ll be able to get an image, and that may be satisfaction enough.
I use a Canon EOS-1 Mark III camera to shoot day and night. While not the latest model, it does a nice job on auroras. The 16-35mm zoom wide-angle lens is my workhorse as the aurora often covers a substantial amount of sky. My usual routine is to monitor the sky. If I see aurora padding across the sky, I toss the my equipment in the car and drive out to one of several sites with a clear exposure to the north. Once the camera meets tripod, here’s what to do:
* Focus: Put the camera in manual mode and make sure my focus is set to infinity. Focusing is critical or the stars will look like blobs and the aurora green mush. There are a couple options. Use autofocus on a cloud or clouds in the daytime or the moon at night. Both are at “infinity” in the camera’s eye. Once focused at infinity, set the camera to manual and leave it there the rest of the evening to shoot the aurora. OR … note where the little infinity symbol (sideways 8) is on your lens barrel and mark it with a thin sharpie so you can return to it anytime. You can also use your camera in Live View mode, the default viewing option for most point-and-shoot cameras where you compose and frame live. Higher-end cameras use a viewfinder but have a Live View option in their menus. Once in Live View, manually focus on a bright star using the back of the camera. On higher-end cameras you can magnify the view by pressing on the “plus” sign. This allows for more precision focus.
* Aperture: Set the lens to its widest open setting, which for my camera is f/2.8. The lower the f-stop number, the more light allowed in and the shorter the exposure. Like having really big pupils! You want to expose the aurora in as short a time as possible because it moves. Longer exposures soften its appearance and blur exciting details like the crispness of the rays.
* ISO speed: Set the ISO to 800 for brighter auroras or 1600 for fainter ones and set the time to 30-seconds. If the aurora is bright and moving quickly, I’ll decrease exposure times to 10-15 seconds. The current crop of high end cameras now have the capacity to shoot at ISOs of 25,000. While those speeds may not give the smoothest images, dialing back to ISO 3200 and 6400 will make for photos that look like they were shot at ISO 400 on older generation cameras. A bright aurora at ISO 3200 can be captured in 5 seconds or less.
* Framing: Compose the scene in the viewfinder or monitor. If you’re lucky or plan well, you can include something interesting in the foreground like a building, a picturesque tree or lake reflection.
* Press!: OK, ready? Now press the button. When the image pops up on the viewing screen, does the image seem faint, too bright or just right. Make exposure adjustments as needed. If you need to expose beyond the typical maximum of 30 seconds, you can hold the shutter button down manually or purchase a cable release to hold it down for you.
It’s easy, right? Well then, why did it take me 400 words to explain it??? Of course the magic happens when you look at the monitor. You’ll see these fantastic colorful forms and ask yourself “did I do that?”
Auroras showed up as forecast last night beginning around nightfall and lasting until about 1 a.m. CDT this morning. Then the action stopped. At peak, the Kp indexdinged the bell at “5” (minor geogmagnetic storm) for about 6 hours as the incoming shock from the arrival of the solar blast rattled Earth’s magnetosphere. It wasn’t a particularly bright aurora and had to compete with moonlight, so many of you may not have seen it. You needn’t worry. A much stronger G3 geomagnetic storm from the second Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) remains in the forecast for tonight.
Activity should begin right at nightfall and peak between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. Central Daylight Time. The best place to observe the show is from a location well away from city lights with a good view of the northern sky. Auroras are notoriously fickle, but if the NOAA space forecasting crew is on the money, flickering lights should be visible as far south as Illinois and Kansas. The storm also has the potential to heat and expand the outer limits of Earth’s atmosphere enough to cause additional drag on low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites. High-frequency radio transmissions like shortwave radio may be reduced to static particularly on paths crossing through the polar regions.
If you study the inset box in the illustration above, you can see that from 21-00UT (4 -7 p.m. Central time) the index jumps quickly form “3” to “6” as the blast from that second, stronger X-class flare (September 10) slams into our magnetosphere. Assuming the magnetic field it carries points southward, it should link into our planet’s northward-pointing field and wreak beautiful havoc. A G2 storm continues through 10 p.m. and then elevates to Kp 7 or G3 storm between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. before subsiding slightly in the wee hours before dawn. The Kp index measures how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is on a 9-point scale and is compiled every 3 hours by a network of magnetic observatories on the planet.
All the numbers are lined up. Now, will the weather and solar wind cooperate? Stop back this evening as I’ll be updating with news as the storm happens. For tips on taking pictures of the aurora, please see this related story “How to Take Great Pictures of the Northern Lights”.
* UPDATE 8:15 a.m. Saturday September 13: Well, well, well. Yes, the effects of the solar blast did arrive and we did experience a G3 storm, only the best part happened before nightfall had settled over the U.S. and southern Canada. The peak was also fairly brief. All those arriving protons and electrons connected for a time with Earth’s magnetic field but then disconnected, leaving us with a weak storm for much of the rest of the night. More activity is expected tonight, but the forecast calls for a lesser G1 level geomagnetic storm.
* UPDATE 11 p.m. CDT: After a big surge late this afternoon and early evening, activity has temporarily dropped off. The ACE plot has “gone north” (see below). Though we’re in a lull, the latest NOAA forecast still calls for strong storms overnight.
* UPDATE 9 p.m. CDT: Aurora a bright greenish glow low in the northern sky from Duluth, Minn.
* UPDATE 7:45 p.m. CDT September 12: Wow! Kp=7 (G3 storm) at the moment. Auroras should be visible now over the far eastern seaboard of Canada including New Brunswick and the Gaspe Peninsula. I suspect that skywatchers in Maine and upstate New York should be seeing something as well. Still dusk here in the Midwest.
Talk of aurora is in the air. Our earlier storytoday by Elizabeth Howell alerted you to the possibility of northern lights. Well, it’s showtime! As of 9:30 p.m. Central Daylight Time, the aurora has been active low in the northern sky.
From Duluth, Minn. U.S., a classic green arc low in the northern sky competed with the light of the rising gibbous moon. Once my eyes were dark-adapted, faint parallel rays stood streaked the sky above the arc. NOAA space weather forecasters expect this storm to peak between 1 a.m. CDT and sunrise Friday morning September 12 at a G2or moderate level. Skywatchers across the northern tier of states and southern Canada should see activity across the northern sky. Moonlight will compromise the show, but it rises later each night and dims through the weekend.
This is only the start. Things really kick into gear Friday night and Saturday morning when a G3 strong geomagnetic storm is expected from the more direct blast sent our way by the September 10 X1.6 flare. Auroras might be visible as far south as Illinois and Kansas.
We’ll keep you in touch with storm activity by posting regular updates over the next couple days. Including odd hours. Here are some links to check during the night as you wait for the aurora to put in an appearance at your house:
* Ovation oval – shows the approximate extent of the auroral oval that looks like a cap centered on Earth’s geomagnetic pole. During storms, the oval extends south into the northern U.S. and farther.
* Kp index – indicator of magnetic activity high overhead and updated every three hours. A Kp index of “5” means the onset of a minor storm; a Kp of “6”, a moderate storm.
* NOAA space weather forecast
* Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite plots – The magnetic field direction of the arriving wind from the sun. The topmost graph, plotting Bz, is your friend. When the curve drops into the negative zone that’s good! A prolonged stay at -10 or lower increases the chance of seeing the aurora. Negative numbers indicate a south-pointing magnetic field, which has a greater chance of linking into Earth’s northward-pointing field and wriggling its way past our magnetic defenses and sparking auroras.