Tales (Tails?) of Two Comets: Prospects for Q1 PanSTARRS & G2 MASTER

Comet G2 MASTER passes near the Helix Nebula in Aquarius on the night of April 21st.

Did you catch the performance of Comet C/2014 Q2 Lovejoy earlier this year? Every year provides a few sure bets and surprises when it comes to binocular comets, and while we may still be long overdue for the next truly ‘Great Comet,’ 2015 has been no exception.

This week, we’d like to turn your attention to two icy visitors to the inner solar system which may present the best bets comet-wise over the next few weeks: Comets C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS and C/2015 G2 MASTER.

First up is Comet C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS. Discovered on August 16, 2014 by the Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System (PanSTARRS) based atop Mount Haleakala in Hawaii, we’ve known of the potential for Q1 PanSTARRS to put on a decent show this summer for a while. In fact, it made our roundup of comets to watch for in our 101 Astronomical Events for 2015. Q1 PanSTARRS currently sits at +11th magnitude as a morning sky object in the constellation Pisces. On a 39,000 year long parabolic orbit inclined 45 degrees relative to the Earth’s orbit, Q1 PanSTARRS will leap up across the ecliptic on May 17th and perhaps reach +3rd magnitude as it nears perihelion in early July and transitions to the evening sky.

An image of Comet C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS shortly after discovery. Credit and copyright: Efrain Morales Rivera.
An image of Comet C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS shortly after discovery. Credit and copyright: Efrain Morales Rivera.

Though it may put on its best show in July and August, a few caveats are in order. First, we’ll be looking at Q1 PanSTARRS beyond the summer Sun, and like C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS a few years back, it’ll never leave the dusk twilight, and will always appear against a low contrast backdrop.

May June (AM) Starry Night Education software.
The May-June path of Comet Q1 PanSTARRS through the dawn sky as seen from latitude 30 degrees north. Credit: Starry Night Education software.

Here are some notable upcoming events for Comet C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS:

(Unless otherwise noted, a ‘close pass’ is here considered to be less than one degree of arc, about twice the diameter of a Full Moon.)

May 16: Passes into the constellation Aries.

May 16: The waning crescent Moon passes 2 degrees distant.

May 17: Crosses northward through the ecliptic.

May 20: May break +10th magnitude.

June 11: Passes in to the constellation Taurus.

June 12: Passes 2 degrees from M45 (The Pleiades).

June 15: May break 6th magnitude.

June 20: Passes into Perseus.

June 21: Passes into Auriga.

June 23: Passes +2.7 magnitude star Hassaleh (Iota Aurigae).

June 25: Passes the +7.5 magnitude open cluster IC 410.

June 26: Passes +6 magnitude Pinwheel Open Cluster (M36).

Evening path. Starry Night Education software.
The July-August evening path of Q1 PanSTARRS as seen from latitude 30 degrees north. Credit: Starry Night Education software.

July 2: Crosses into Gemini.

July 3: Passes the +3.6 magnitude star Theta Geminorum.

July 5: Passes 10 degrees north of the Sun and into the evening sky.

July 6: Passes midway between Castor and Pollux.

July 6: Reaches perihelion at 0.315 astronomical units (AU) from the Sun.

July 7: May top out at +3rd magnitude.

July 8: Crosses into Cancer.

July 12: Photo Op: passes M44, the Beehive Cluster.

July 13: Sits 30 degrees from Comet C/2015 G2 MASTER (see below).

July 15: May drop below +6th magnitude.

July 15: Crosses the ecliptic southward.

July 17: The waxing crescent Moon passes 1.5 degrees south.

July 19: Crosses into Leo.

July 20: Closest to Earth, at 1.18 AU distant.

July 21: Less than 10 degrees from Jupiter and Venus.

July 22: Crosses into Sextans.

July 26: Crosses the celestial equator southward.

August 4: Crosses into Hydra.

August 5: Crosses into Crater.

August 18: Crosses back into Hydra.

August 30: Crosses into Centaurus.

September 1: Drops below +10th magnitude.

Light curve.
The projected light curve of Q1 PanSTARRS over time. The black dots represent observations. Credit: Weekly Information about Bright Comets.

The next comet on deck is the recently discovered C/2015 G2 MASTER. If you live in the southern hemisphere, G2 MASTER is the comet that perhaps you haven’t heard of, but should be watching in the dawn sky. Discovered last month on April 7 as by MASTER-SAAO (The Russian built Mobile Astronomical System of Telescope-Robots at the South African Astronomical Observatory), this is not only the first comet bagged by MASTER, but the first comet discovery from South Africa since 1978. G2 MASTER has already reached magnitude +7 and is currently crossing the constellation Sculptor. It is also currently only visible in the dawn sky south of 15 degrees north latitude, but images already show a short spiky tail jutting out from G2 MASTER, and the comet may rival Q2 Lovejoy’s performance from earlier this year. Expect G2 MASTER to top out at magnitude +6 as it nears perihelion in mid-May. Observers around 30 degrees north latitude in the southern U.S. should get their first good looks at G2 MASTER in late May, as it vaults up past Sirius and breaks 10 degrees elevation in the evening sky after sunset.  Again, as with Q1 PanSTARRS, cometary performance versus twilight will be key!

Credit: Ernesto Guido & Nick Howes/Remanzacco Observatory
An April 10th image of Comet C/2015 G2 MASTER, plus an initial projected light curve versus solar elongation over time.  Credit: Ernesto Guido & Nick Howes/Remanzacco Observatory

Here are some key dates with astronomical destiny for Comet G2 MASTER over the coming weeks:

May 9: Crosses into Fornax.

May 15: May top out at +6th magnitude.

May 13: Closest to Earth at 0.47 AU.

May 14: Crosses into Eridanus.

May 16: Crosses into Caelum.

May 17: Crosses into Lepus.

May 20: Passes the +3.8 magnitude star Delta Leporis.

May 23: Crosses into Canis Major.

May 23: Reaches perihelion at 0.8 AU from the Sun.

May 27: Crosses into Monoceros.

May 28: Passes the +5.9 magnitude Open Cluster M50.

Credit and copyright: Adriano Valvasori
Comet G2 MASTER imaged on May 7th. Credit and copyright: Adriano Valvasori

June 8: Crosses northward over the celestial equator and into the constellation Canis Minor.

July 1: May drop below 10th magnitude.

G2 MASTER also crosses SOHO’s field of view on July 24th through August 4th, though it may be too faint to see at this point.

Here are the Moon phases for the coming weeks to aid you in your comet quest:

Full Moons: June 2nd, July 2nd, July 31st, August 29th.

New Moons: May 18th, June 16th, July 16th, August 14th.

Binoculars are our favorite ‘weapon of choice’ for comet hunting. Online, Heavens-Above is a great resource for quickly and simply generating a given comet’s sky position in right ascension and declination; we always check out the Comet Observers Database and Seiichi Yoshida’s Weekly Information about Bright Comets to see what these denizens of the outer solar system are currently up to.

Good luck, and be sure to regale us with your comet-hunting tales of tragedy and triumph!

Crossing Quarters: Would the Real Astronomical Midway Point Please Stand Up?

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Happy May Day Eve!

Maybe May 1st is a major holiday in your world scheme, or perhaps you see it as the release date of Avengers: Age of Ultron.

We’re approximately mid-way between the March equinox and the June solstice this week, as followers of the Gregorian calendar flip the page tomorrow from April to May. Though astronomical spring began back on March 20th for the northern hemisphere, May 1st is right around the time it starts to feel like spring weather for most of the residents of mid- northern latitudes.

Blame solar insolation, as the Sun transits ever higher in its daily trek towards the June solstice. Sure, the 23 degree 26’ 21” axial tilt of our fair planet is the reason for the season, and the pair of equinoxes and solstices are easily marked… but did you know that there are four other astronomical waypoints along the ecliptic that aren’t so readily defined?

Credit and copyright: Dave Dickinson
A ‘sidewalk sundial’ in front of the Flandrau observatory in Tucson, Arizona. Credit and copyright: Dave Dickinson

Welcome to the curious world of cross-quarter days. Tomorrow, May 1st is also known as May Day, which is one such holiday. Perhaps, if you’re reading this in the remaining socialist states of China, Cuba or North Korea, you observe May Day as a major communist holiday. True story: back in our Cold Warrior days, May Day usually meant deployment to a forward location to chase Soviet Bear bombers out of friendly air space.

The cycle of four cross quarter days and four quarter (two solstices and two equinoxes) comprise the modern ‘Wheel of the Year’ on the Pagan calendar. The Christian holidays of Easter and Christmas also have their equinoctial and solstice roots.

The other three cross quarter holidays on our modern calendar are: Groundhog Day (February 2nd), Lammas Day (August 1st) and Halloween on October 31st. It’s great to see suburbanites don garb and request treats in a yearly re-enactment of ancient ritual.

But the solstice and equinoctial points aren’t fixed on the Gregorian calendar, but instead drift as we attempt to keep measured time in sync with astronomical time. These midway dates should actually be referred to as ‘cross-quarter tie-in holidays,’ as the actual midpoint between solstice and equinox can be determined in several different ways.

Here are the technical mid-points for 2015:

Chart

*Note that Easter in the Catholic Church is defined by the First Council of Nicaea in 325 A.D. as the first Sunday after the First Full Moon after March 21st. It can, therefore, fall anywhere from March 22nd to April 25th. The Eastern Orthodox Church uses the older Julian calendar, meaning the dates of Easter for the two sects of Christianity do not always coincide. Keep in mind, however, that March 21st is only an approximation for the northward equinox, which, in the 20th through 21st century, can fall anywhere from March 19th to March 21st.

Marking the technical midway point in declination simply means noting when the Sun crosses 11 degrees 43’ 10” north or south. Note that these always cluster with a bias towards the equinoxes, as the apparent motion of the Sun is faster in declination as it moves at a steeper angle around these dates. Sol’s motion in declination is shallowest near the solstices, which is why the gain and loss of daylight is least noticeable around these dates.

Credit: Stellarium
The true position of the Sun on May 1st. Credit: Stellarium

And the second way we can mark the technical midpoints is strictly in time… but keep in mind, the seasons are not precisely equal in length due to the elliptical orbit of the Earth. Though it may not seem like it, Earth actually reaches perihelion and moves slightly faster around the Sun in early January during the depths of northern hemisphere winter!

And our friend the precession of the equinoxes plays a role as well, moving the two equinoctial points where the ecliptic and the celestial equator intersect once all the way around the sky as the Earth completes one ‘wobble’ every 26,000 years… live out a typical 72 year life span, and the equinoctial points will have moved about one degree, or twice the diameter of a Full Moon.

Credit: Starry Night Education Software
An Earthbound analemma simulation. Credit: Starry Night Education Software

And you can ‘observe’ the motion of the Sun and trace out the figure 8 shape of the analemma noting the quarter and cross-quarter points by imaging the Sun at the same time of the day once every week or so for a year:

Credit and copyright:
An analemma over Transylvania. Credit and copyright: Pal Varadi Nagy

Note: make sure you stay on local solar time in your yearlong analemma quest…  don’t let the archaic vagaries of Daylight Saving Time throw you off by an hour!

Mars analemma. Credit:
A Mars analemma as seen from Opportunity. Credit: NASA/JPL/Cornell/ASU/TAMU

And other planets have extraterrestrial analemmas as well. In the case of Mars, the path of the Sun over the Martian year is actually teardrop-shaped:

However you reckon the springtime mid-point, don’t miss any local ‘May Day-henge’ alignments coming to a horizon near you.

 

The 2015 Lyrid Meteors Peak Tomorrow Night!

A lucky capture of a 2013 Lyrid meteor. Image credit and copyright: John Chumack

April showers bring May flowers, and this month also brings a shower of the celestial variety, as the Lyrid meteors peak this week.

And the good news is, 2015 should be a favorable year for the first major meteor shower of the Spring season for the northern hemisphere.  The peak for the shower in 2015 is predicted to arrive just after midnight Universal Time on Thursday April 23rd, which is 8:00 PM EDT on the evening of Wednesday April 22nd. This favors European longitudes right around the key time, though North America could be in for a decent show as well. Remember, meteor showers don’t read forecasts, and the actual peak can always arrive early or late. We plan to start watching tonight and into Wednesday and Thursday morning as well. April also sees a extremely variable level of cloud cover over the northern hemisphere, another reason to start your meteor vigil early on if skies are clear.

The radiant for the 2015 Lyrids as seen from 40 degrees north latitude at local midnight. Credit: Stellarium.
The radiant for the 2015 Lyrids as seen from 40 degrees north latitude at local midnight. Credit: Stellarium.

Another favorable factor this year is the phase of the Moon, which is only a slender 20% illuminated waxing crescent on Wednesday night. This means that it will have set well before local midnight when the action begins.

The source of the Lyrid meteors is Comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher, which is on a 415 year orbit and is expected to come back around again in 2276 A.D. 1861 actually sported two great comets, the other being C/1861 J1, also known as the Great Comet of 1861.

The orientation of the Sun, Moon, and the Lyrid radiant at the expected peak of the shower at 24UT/20EDT April 22nd. credit: Stellarium
The orientation of the Sun, Moon, and the Lyrid radiant at the expected peak of the shower at 24UT/20EDT April 22nd. credit: Stellarium

The Lyrids typically exhibit an ideal Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 15-20 per hour, though this shower has been known to produce moderate outbursts from time to time. In 1803 and 1922, the Lyrids produced a ZHR of 100 per hour, and in recent times, we had an outburst of 250 per hour back in 1982. Researchers have tried over the years to tease out a periodicity for Lyrid outbursts, which seem erratic at best. In recent years, the Lyrids hit a ZHR of 20 (2011), 25 (2012), 22 (2013), and 16 last year in 2014.

Keep in mind, we say that the ZHR is an ideal rate, or what you could expect from the meteor shower with the radiant directly overhead under dark skies: expect the actual number of meteors observed during any shower to be significantly less.

A 2014 Lyrid fireball. Credit: The UK Meteor Network
A 2014 Lyrid fireball. Credit: The UK Meteor Network

The radiant for the Lyrids actually sits a few degrees east of the bright star Vega across the Lyra border in the constellation Hercules. They should, in fact, be named the Herculids! In mid-April, the radiant for the April Lyrids has already risen well above the northeastern horizon as seen from latitude 40 degrees north at 10 PM local, and is roughly overhead by 4 AM local. Several other minor showers are also active around late April, including the Pi Puppids (April 24th), the Eta Aquarids (May 6th), and the Eta Lyrids (May 9th). The constellation of the Lyre also lends its name to the June Lyrids peaking around June 6th.

The April Lyrids are intersecting the Earth’s orbit at a high 80 degree angle at a swift velocity of 49 kilometres per second. About a quarter of the Lyrid meteors are fireballs, leaving bright, persistent smoke trains. It’s a good idea to keep a set of binoculars handy to study these lingering smoke trails post-passage.

The Lyrids also have the distinction of having the longest recorded history of any known meteor shower.  Chinese chronicles indicate that “stars dropped down like rain,” on a late Spring night in 687 BC.

Observing a meteor shower requires nothing more than a set of working ‘Mark-1 eyeballs’ and patience. The International Meteor Organization always welcomes reports of meteor counts from observers worldwide to build an accurate picture of evolving meteor debris streams. You can even hear meteor ‘pings’ via FM radio.

Expect the rate to pick up past local midnight, as the Earth plows headlong into the oncoming meteor stream. Remember, the front of the car gets the love bugs, an apt analogy for any Florida resident in mid-April.

A composite view of the 2012 Lyrids plus sporadic meteors. Credit: NASA/MSFC/Danielle Moser
A composite view of the 2012 Lyrids plus sporadic meteors. Credit: NASA/MSFC/Danielle Moser

Catching a photograph of a Lyrid or any meteor is as simple as plopping a DSLR down on a tripod and doing a series of 30 second to several minute long time exposures. Use the widest field of view possible, and aim the camera off at about a 45 degree angle from the radiant to catch the meteors sidelong in profile. Be sure to take a series of test shots to get the ISO/f-stop combination set for the local sky conditions.

Don’t miss the 2015 Lyrids, possibly the first good meteor shower of the year!

Help Researchers Track Comet 67/P Through Perihelion

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Calling all light-bucket scope owners: the folks at the European Space Agency want to enlist you in the quest to monitor Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from our Earthbound perspective through perihelion later this summer.

“We are looking to bring an entire community of professional and amateur observers together,” said Rosetta Coordinator of Amateur Observations for Comet 67/P C-G Padma A. Yanamandra-Fisher in a recent press release. “When else can you observe a comet at the same time a spacecraft is viewing it at close proximity and escorting it to perihelion, and be able to correlate both sets of findings?

The Rosetta story thus far has been an amazing tale of discovery. We’ve extensively chronicled the historic approach of the Rosetta spacecraft as the rubber-duck-shaped comet grew in its view here at Universe Today. The world also held its collective breath as the Philae lander, the little washing Euro- washing machine-sized spacecraft that could, descended on to the alien surface. Heck, Philae even knocked a Kardashian out of the top trending spot worldwide, a feat in and of itself.

We also documented the Spinal Tap-esque “None more black” nature of the comet.

Image credit:
The orbit of comet 67/P Image credit: JPL/NASA

Prospects in 2015: As of this writing, Comet 67P/C-G is 1.9 AU from the Sun and closing. The ‘P’ in ‘67/P’  stands for ‘short term (less than 200 years) periodic,’ and the comet orbits the Sun once every 6.44 years. Perihelion for 67/P occurs on August 13th, 2015 when the comet reaches a distance of 1.24 AU ( 191 million kilometres) from the Sun.

Discovered in 1969 by the Kiev University’s Klim Ivanovych Churyumov while examining a photograph taken by Svetlana Gerasimenko, this is the comet’s seventh apparition. Currently shining at +18th magnitude in the constellation Aquarius, Comet 67P C-G will vault up in the early morning sky for northern hemisphere observers and cross the ecliptic plane in the last week of July, at 43 degrees elongation west of the Sun.

Image credit:
Light curve for Comet 67/P. Image credit: Seiichi Yoshida ([email protected])

The comet is expected to reach a maximum brightness of +11th magnitude near perihelion. Historically, 67P – like most comets – tend to under-perform before perihelion, only to have an energetic lingering outburst phase post-perihelion.

“With each apparition we see it (67P) behave differently.” Yanamandra-Fisher said. “These legacy data sets will aid in our knowledge of this comet, especially when used in combination with the data gathered by the Rosetta spacecraft and the new ground observations made this year.”

Image credit: Starry Night Education software
The path of 67/P through the morning sky as seen from latitude 30 degrees north. Image credit: Starry Night Education software

Time on professional scopes is always chronically in short supply, with more astronomers and targets to observe than there are telescopes available. That’s where amateur observers come in. Many private backyard observatories have instruments that would be the envy of many a major institution.  Though the press release suggests that the minimum aperture size needed to observe 67P this summer is 14-inches (35 cm), we urge 10” or 12” inch scope owners – especially those who have the latest generation of Mallincam and faint object CCD  imagers – to give it a try. We’ve seen some amazing results with these, even during quick casual observing sessions such as public star parties! The Rosetta team is looking for everything from professional grade images, to sketches and visual observations with magnitude estimations.

Of course, hunting faint comets is a daunting task at best. +10th magnitude is generally our cut-off for  ‘is interesting enough to alert the public’ in terms of novae or comets, though we’ll let 67/P ‘into the club’ due to its celebrity status.

Image credit and copyright:
Comet 67/P from June 23rd, 2014. Image credit and copyright: Efrain Morales

To add to the challenge, the comet is only visible against a dark sky during a brief pre-dawn window. You’ll need a planetarium program (we use Starry Night Pro) to generate good finder charts down to 15th magnitude or so. Keep in mind, comets also typically appear a bit fainter visually than stars of the same magnitude due to the fact that said brightness is spread out over a broad surface area.

ESA also has a great page with an ephemeris generator to help you in your 67/P quest.

“This is truly interactive science that people of all observing levels can participate in- from amateurs to professionals.” Yanamandra-Fischer said in closing.

Image credit
The orbit of comet 67/P. Image credit: NASA/JPL

Other comets to watch for in 2015 include still bright 2014 Q2 Lovejoy, C/2013 US10 Catalina, C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS, and 19P/Borrelly.

What’ll happen as 67P approaches perihelion? Will those two gigantic lobes crack and separate as Rosetta and the world looks on? Now, I’d pay to see that!

Image credit: David Dickinson
A light bucket scope at the Bruneau Dunes observatory suitable for a faint comet quest. Image credit: David Dickinson

-Register for the Rosetta observation campaign here.

Firefly Astronomy

Image credit and copyright:

Light makes life, and sometimes, life returns the favor. There’s nothing more magical than watching fireflies flit across a starlit field on a summer’s night. Growing up in Northern Maine, summer was an all-too swiftly passing season, and fireflies had to put on their displays in a brief profusion of frenzied activity around late July and early August before the weather turned once again towards another long harsh winter.

Fireflies remind us of the ephemeral nature of existence, that’s for sure. And they’re much more welcome by summertime campers on vigil for the August Perseids than oh, say the ubiquitous mosquito or vicious black flies

A recent amazing capture (see the intro image) came to us courtesy of Steed Yu. Shooting from the shores of Lake Natron in Tanzania, he managed to capture an amazing composition of fireflies and those ‘fireflies of the cosmos,’ in the form of a star-dappled southern hemisphere sky.

Taken on February 24th 2015 just south of the equator, this is simply an amazing image. Don’t forget, though it’s towards the end winter time up here in the northern hemisphere in late February, it’s the tail end of the summer south of the equator.

The photographer had this to say about his ‘Carnival of Fireflies’:

The Night of Lake Natron belongs to the stars. Without any artificial light disturbing the pure sky, one can easily see the Southern Milky Way, as well as sparkling starlights scattered in it, such as the most distinctive constellation Southern Cross and our nearest stellar neighbours Alpha Centauri. The Night of Lake Natron belongs to the firefly too. These glowing elves were flying up and down among the lush grass on both sides of a ravine stream, like a flowing “Firefly Way”, as if to contest with the Milky Way. On the quiet starry night, the fireflies held a grand carnival.

Fireflies shine through a method known as bioluminescence, producing a cold light via a chemical process using the chemical luciferin that causes their abdomen to glow. This aids mating and mate selection, and even firefly larvae have been known to glow. Other deep sea and cave-dwelling species of fish and insects have been known to use a similar signaling method in the absence of ambient light.

You can see the stars of the southern Milky Way and the Southern Cross high above the African night shining in their own particular fashion via nuclear fusion, using the proton-proton chain reaction to shed their ancient photons of light onto the nighttime scene from beyond the cold dust lanes of the Coal Sack.

We’ve managed to observe the sky from the southern hemisphere five times from three different continents over the years, and can attest that all of the ‘good stuff’ is in the southern sky, where the core of our home Milky Way galaxy arcs high overhead.

Such ‘Firefly Time-lapse Astronomy’ is as easy as parking a DSLR with a wide-field of view lens on a tripod and shooting 10-60 second time exposures. Fellow Universe Today writer Bob King wrote a piece last year on his firefly astronomy adventures.

And check out this amazing video sequence by Vincent Brady taken in the summer of 2013 from Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri:

Humans have also mastered the art of creating light and luminescence via technology as well. This has served as a way to ‘push back the night,’ and our 24 hour civilization has come to rely on this mimicry of nature as we demonstrate our prowess at illumination.  This often has a cost, however, as we banish the beauty of the night sky to a distant memory. We’ve also had the dubious pleasure of observing and conducting impromptu sidewalk star parties from downtown Tampa and the Las Vegas strip, arguably some of the most light-polluted locales in the world. On such nights, only the Moon, planets and perhaps the odd bright double stars are the only viable targets.

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Even in light pollution conscious Flagstaff, Arizona, the problem persists. Image credit: Dave Dickinson

But all is not lost. Perhaps wasteful light pollution is only an adolescent phase that civilizations go through. One SETI search strategy has even suggested that we may be able to detect ET via light pollution from alien cities on the night side of prospective planets … perhaps some race of ‘intelligent fireflies’ straight out of science fiction will use bio-chemical signaling for communication?

Image credit
Humans creating light (OK laser pointer penmanship isn’t our strong suit!) Image credit: Dave Dickinson

All great thoughts to ponder on the star-filled summer nights ahead, as fireflies swarm around us. We move that if we ever become an interstellar species that we bring the noble firefly along for the ride… but please, let’s leave light pollution and mosquitoes behind.

Here’s How You Can Watch the SpaceX’s CRS-6 Mission From Your Backyard

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Hunting for satellites from your backyard can be positively addicting. Sure, the Orion Nebula or the Andromeda Galaxy appear grand… and they’ll also look exactly the same throughout the short span of our fleeting human lifetimes. Since the launch of Sputnik in 1957, humans also have added their own ephemeral ‘stars’ to the sky. It’s fun to sleuth out just what these might be, as they photobomb the sky overhead.  In the coming week, we’d like to turn your attention towards a unique opportunity to watch a high profile space launch approach a well-known orbiting space laboratory.

On Monday, April 13th 2015, SpaceX will launch its CRS-6 resupply mission headed towards the International Space Station. As of this writing, the launch is set for 20:33 Universal Time (UT) or 4:33 PM EDT. This is just over three hours prior to local sunset. The launch window to catch the ISS is instantaneous, and Tuesday April 14th at 4:10 PM EDT is the backup date if the launch does not occur on Monday.

Image credit: Andrew
Dragon chasing the ISS over Ottawa. Image credit and copyright: Andrew Symes

Of course, launches are fun to watch up-close from the Kennedy Space Center. To date, we’ve seen two shuttle launches, one Falcon launch, and the MAVEN and MSL liftoffs headed to Mars from up close, and dozens more from our backyard about 100 miles to the west of KSC. We can typically follow a given night launch right through to fairing and stage one separation with binoculars, and we once even had a serendipitous launch occur during a local school star party! We really get jaded along the Florida Space Coast, where space launches are as common as three day weekend traffic jams elsewhere.

And it’s true that you can actually tell when a launch is headed ISS-ward, as it follows the station up the US eastern seaboard along its steep 52 degree inclination orbit.

On Monday, Dragon launches 23 minutes behind the ISS in its orbit. Viewers up should be able to follow CRS-6 up the U.S. East Coast in the late afternoon sky if it’s clear.

Image credit: Orbitron
The position of the ISS during Monday’s liftoff, plus the trace for the next two orbits, and the position of the day/night terminator at the end of the second orbit. Image credit: Orbitron

And of course, SpaceX will make another attempt Monday at landing its Falcon Stage 1 engine on a floating sea platform, known as the ‘autonomous spaceport drone ship’ (don’t call it a barge) after liftoff.

About 15-20 minutes after liftoff, Europe and the United Kingdom may catch the Dragon and Falcon S2 booster shortly after the ISS pass on the evening of April 13th. Observers ‘across the pond’ used to frequently catch sight of the Space Shuttle and the external fuel tank shortly after launch; such a sight is not to be missed!

Spotting Dragon ‘and friends’ on early orbits may provide for a fascinating show in the evenings leading up to capture and berthing. Typically, a Dragon launch generates four objects in orbit: the Dragon spacecraft, the Falcon Stage 2 booster, and the two solar panel covers. These were very prominent to us as they passed over Northern Maine on first orbit in the pre-dawn sky on the morning of January 10th, 2015. Universe Today science writer Bob King also noted that observers spotted what was probably a venting maneuver over Minnesota on the 2nd pass on the same date.

Image credit: the launch of CRS-2.
The launch of CRS-2. Image credit: David Dickinson

And even after berthing, the Falcon S2 booster and solar panel covers will stay up in orbit, either following or leading the ISS for several weeks before destructive reentry.

Orbits on Monday and Tuesday leading up to capture for Dragon on Wednesday April 15th at 7:14 AM EDT/11:14 UT will be the key times to sight the pair. Capture by the CanadaArm2 will take place over the central Pacific, and the Dragon will be berthed to the nadir Harmony node of the ISS. Dragon will remain attached to the station until May 17th for a subsequent return to Earth. With the end of the U.S. Space Shuttle program in 2011, SpaceX’s Dragon is currently the only vessel with a ‘down-mass’ cargo capability, handy for returning experiments to Earth.

The first few orbits on the night of the 13th for North America include a key pass for the US northeast at 1:04UT (on the 14th)/9:04 PM EDT, and subsequent passes at dusk westward about 90 minutes later. NASA’s Spot the Station App usually lists Dragon passes shortly after launch, as does Heavens-Above and numerous other tracking applications. We’ll also be publishing sighting opportunities for Dragon and the ISS, along with maps on Twitter as @Astroguyz as the info becomes available.

Pre-berthing passes next week favor 40-50 degrees north for evening passes, and 40-50 degrees south for morning viewing.

Image credit: Marco
Dragon/CRS-3 passes over the Netherlands. Image credit: Marco Langbroek

The International Space Station has become a busy place since its completion in 2009. To date, the station has been a port of call for the U.S. Space Shuttles, the Soyuz spacecraft with crews, and Progress, HTV, ATV and Dragon resupply craft.

The current expedition features astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Korniyenko conducting a nearly yearlong stay on the ISS to study the effects that long duration spaceflight has on the human body. Kelley will also break the U.S. duration record by 126 days during his 342 stay aboard the station. The future may see Dragon ferrying crews to the ISS as early as 2017.

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Our ad-hoc satellite imaging rig. Image credit: David Dickinson

And you can always watch the launch live via NASA TV starting at 3:30 PM EDT/19:30 UT.

Don’t miss a chance to catch the drama of the Dragon spacecraft approaching the International Space Station, coming to a sky near you!

Was This Past Weekend’s Lunar Eclipse Really Total?

Totality... or not? Image credit and copyright: Héctor Barrios

Millions of viewers across the western United States and across the Pacific, to include Australia and New Zealand were treated to a fine Easter weekend lunar eclipse on Saturday. And while this was the third of the ongoing tetrad of four lunar eclipses, it was definitely worth getting up early for and witnessing firsthand.

But was it truly total at all?

To Recap: The April 4th eclipse featured the shortest advertised duration for totality for the 21st century, clocking in at just four minutes and 43 seconds in length. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to 1529 to find a shorter span of totality, at one minute and 42 seconds. And you’ll have to wait until September 11th, 2155 to find one that tops it in terms of brevity.

The April 4th lunar eclipse over the Las Vegas strip. Image credit and copyright: John Lybrand
The April 4th lunar eclipse over the Las Vegas strip. Image credit and copyright: John Lybrand

We wrote recently about the saros cycle, and how this past weekend’s eclipse was the first in lunar saros series 132 to feature totality.

A fascinating discussion as to whether this was a de facto total lunar eclipse has recently sprung up on the message boards and a recent Sky and Telescope article online.

The geometry that creates a total lunar eclipse. Credit: NASA
The geometry that creates a total lunar eclipse. Credit: NASA

It all has to do with how you gauge the shape and size of the Earth’s shadow.

This is a surprisingly complex affair, as the Earth’s atmosphere gives the umbra a ragged and indistinct edge. If you’ve ever taken our challenge to determine your longitude using a lunar eclipse — just as mariners such as Christopher Columbus did while at sea — then you know how tough it is to get precise contact timings. There has been an ongoing effort over the years to model the size changes in Earth’s shadow using crater contact times during a lunar eclipse.

Many observers have commented in forums and social media that the northern limb of the Moon stayed pretty bright throughout the brief stretch of totality for Saturday’s eclipse.

What happens (in the skies over) Vegas... the lunar eclipse captured from the Luxor Hotel. Image credit and copyright: Rob Sparks
What happens (in the skies over) Vegas… the lunar eclipse captured from the Luxor Hotel. Image credit and copyright: Rob Sparks

“There are 3 ways of computing the magnitude of a lunar eclipse,” Eclipse expert David Herald mentioned in a recent Solar Eclipse Message List (SEML) posting:

The ‘traditional’ way as used in the Astronomical Almanac is attributed to Chauvenet – where the umbral radius is increased by a simple 2% – with the radius being based on the Earth’s radius at 45 deg latitude (and otherwise the oblateness of the Earth is ignored). For this eclipse the Chauvenet magnitude was 1.005.

 The second way (used in the French Almanac, and more recently by Espenak & Meeus in their ‘Five Millennium Canon of Lunar Eclipses’ is the Danjon method. It similarly uses the Earth’s radius at 45 deg (and otherwise the oblateness is ignored), and increases the Earth’s radius by 75km. For this eclipse the Danjon magnitude is 1.001

The most recent approach (Herald & Sinnott JBAA 124-5 pgs 247-253, 2014) is based on the Danjon approach; however it treats the Earth as oblate, allows for the varying inclination of the Earth relative to the Sun during the year, and increases the Earth’s radius by 87km – being the best fit to 22,539 observations made between 1842 and 2011. For this eclipse the magnitude is computed as 1.002.

“As for eclipses, to me it is total when sliver of light comes through the edge of the Earth’s profile,” eclipse chaser Patrick Poitevin told Universe Today. “Once a minimum of light passes through any of the lunar dales (as it does during a total solar eclipse) I do not concede it as a total. Same for a lunar eclipse.”

A partial phase for the April 4th lunar eclipse above a silo. Image credit and copyright: Brian who is called Brian
A partial phase for the April 4th lunar eclipse above a silo. Image credit and copyright: Brian who is called Brian

Michael Zeiler at the Great American Eclipse also had this to say to Universe Today about the subject:

This is a complex question because the shape of the Earth’s umbra upon the Moon is diffuse due to the effects of the Earth’s atmosphere. The various models used (with corrected radii for the Earth) are empirically based on crater timings of past lunar eclipses, of which there is some uncertainty. I’m sure this accounted for the difference between the USNO duration of eclipse and NASA.

The comment (in the recent Sky & Telescope post online) by Curt Renz is valid; correcting for the Earth’s flattening (meaning that the Earth’s radius from pole to pole is about a third of a percent shorter than the radius across the equator) might influence whether this very low magnitude eclipse is total or not. I haven’t made the calculation whether the Earth’s flattening tips this eclipse from total to partial, but it’s plausible.

Totality! Image credit and copyright: Rolf Wahl Olsen
Totality! Image credit and copyright: Rolf Wahl Olsen

 There is another wrinkle: due to parallactic shifts of the Moon when observing from either pole of the Earth, it might be that for a lunar eclipse right on the knife edge of total/partial, that it may indeed be total from one polar region and partial from another. This is a kind of libration, but it would be a very subtle difference and probably unobservable. 

 It is only possible to conclusively define Saturday’s eclipse as total or partial if you define a brightness threshold for the Sun’s photosphere illuminating an edge of the Moon. The problem here is that this line is indistinct and fuzzy. I watched the lunar eclipse carefully with this question in mind and I could not decide for myself whether this lunar eclipse was total or partial. I think it would require a photometer to make this distinction.

 Certainly, there’s little record of just how the 102 second long lunar eclipse of 1529 appeared. Ironically, it too was a total eclipse near sunrise as seen from Europe. On the other side of the coin, the deep partial eclipse of August 26th, 1961 just missed totality at 98.6% obscuration… and the two lunar eclipses in 2021 have similar circumstances, with a barely total lunar eclipse just 15 minutes long on May 26th and a 97.4% partial lunar eclipse on November 19th.

The circumstances for the 1529 total solar eclipse. Image credit: F.Espenak/NASA/GSFC
The circumstances for the 1529 total solar eclipse. Image credit: F.Espenak/NASA/GSFC

So maybe we won’t have to wait until 2155 to see another brief lunar eclipse that blurs the lines and refuses to play by the rules.

The eclipse as seen from Coral Towers Observatory. Image credit and copyright: Joseph Brimacombe
The eclipse as seen from Coral Towers Observatory. Image credit and copyright: Joseph Brimacombe

What do you, the readers think? What did you see last Saturday morn, a bright total lunar eclipse, or a deep partial?

Adventures in Satspotting: Why Are Different Orbits Needed for Satellites?

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Congratulations: perhaps you’re a new space-faring nation, looking to place a shiny new payload around the planet Earth. You’ve assembled the technical know-how, and seek to break the surly bonds and join an exclusive club that thus far, only contains 14 nations capable of indigenous spaceflight. Now for the big question: which orbit should you choose?

Welcome to the wonderful world of orbital mechanics. Sure, satellites in orbit have to follow Newton’s laws of motion, as they perpetually ‘fall’ around the Earth without hitting it. But it’ll cost you in fuel expended and technical complexity to achieve different types of orbits. Different types of orbits can, however, be used to accomplish different goals.

The first artificial moon to be placed in low-Earth orbit was Sputnik 1 launched on October 4th, 1957. But even before the dawn of the Space Age, visionaries such as futurist and science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke realized the value of placing a satellite in a geosynchronous orbit about 35,786 kilometres above the Earth’s surface. Placing a satellite in such an orbit keeps it in ‘lockstep’ with the Earth rotating below it once every twenty four hours.

Here are some of the more common orbits targeted by modern satellites and their uses:

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Different orbits versus altitude. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Cmglee, Geo Swan

Low-Earth Orbit (LEO): Placing a satellite 700 km above the surface of the Earth moving 27,500 km per hour will cause it to orbit the Earth once every 90 minutes. The International Space Station is in just such an orbit. Satellites in LEO are also subject to atmospheric drag, and must be boosted periodically.  Launching from the equator of the Earth gives you an initial free maximum 1,670 km/per hour boost into orbit eastward. Incidentally, the high 52 degree inclination orbit of the ISS is a compromise that assures that it is reachable from various launch sites worldwide.

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Satellite constellations, including NASA’s ‘A-Train’ of sun-synchronous Earth-observing satellites. Image credit: NASA

Low Earth orbit is also becoming crowded with space junk, and incidents such as the successful 2007 anti-satellite missile test by China, and the 2009 collision of Iridium 33 and the defunct Kosmos-2251 satellite both showered low Earth orbit with thousands of extra pieces of debris and didn’t help the situation much. There have been calls to make reentry technology standard on future satellites, and this will become paramount with the advent of flocks of nano and CubeSats in LEO.

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Still up there: The orbital trace of China’s space station Tiangong-1: Image credit: Orbitron

Sun-Synchronous Orbit: This is a highly inclined retrograde orbit that assures that the illumination angle of the Earth below is consistent on multiple passes. Though it takes a fair amount of energy to reach a Sun-synchronous orbit—plus a complex deployment maneuver known as a ‘dog leg’—this type of orbit is desirable for Earth observing missions. It’s also a favorite for spy satellites, and you’ll notice that many nations aiming to put up their first satellites will use the stated goal of ‘Earth observation’ to field spy satellites of their own.

Molyina orbit: A highly inclined elliptical orbit designed by the Russians, a Molyina orbit takes 12 hours to complete, placing the satellite over one hemisphere for 2/3rds of its orbit and returning it back over the same geographical point once every 24 hours.

A semi-synchronous orbit: A 12-hour elliptical orbit similar to a Molyina orbit, a semi-synchronous orbit is favored by Global Positioning Satellites.

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The launch of SpaceX’s CRS2 resupply mission headed to the ISS. Image credit: David Dickinson

Geosynchronous orbit: The aforementioned point 35,786 km above the Earth’s surface where a satellite stays fixed over a particular longitude.

Geostationary orbit:  Place a GEO satellite in orbit with a zero degree orbit, and it is considered Geostationary. Also sometimes referred to as a Clarke orbit, this location is extremely stable, and satellites placed there may remain in orbit for millions of years.

In  2012, the EchoStar XVI satellite was launched headed to GEO with the time capsule disk The Last Pictures for just that reason. It is quite possible that millions of years from now, GEO sats might be the primary artifacts remaining from the early 20th/21st century civilization.

Lagrange point orbits: 18th century mathematician Joseph-Louis Lagrange made the observation that several stable points exist in any three body system. Dubbed Lagrange points, these locales serve as great stable positions to place observatories. The Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) sits at the L1 point to afford it a continuous view of the Sun; the James Webb Space Telescope is bound in 2018 for the L2 point beyond the Moon. To stay on station near a LaGrange point, a satellite must enter a Lissajous or Halo orbit around the imaginary Lagrange point in space.

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The L2 Lagrange point. Image credit: ESA

All of these orbits have pros and cons.  For example, atmospheric drag isn’t an issue in geosynchronous orbit, though it takes several boosts and transfer orbit maneuvers to attain. And as with any plan, complexity also adds more chances for things to fail, stranding a satellite in the wrong orbit. Russia’s Phobos-Grunt mission suffered just such a fate after launch in 2011 when its Fregat upper stage failed to operate properly, stranding the interplanetary spacecraft in Earth orbit. Phobos-Grunt crashed back to Earth over the Southern Pacific on January 15th, 2012.

Space is a tough business, and it’s imperative to place things in the right orbit!

-Looking to hunt for satellites from your backyard? A great online resource to start with in Heavens-Above.

Seeking Ceres: Following the Brave New World Through 2015

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A little world is making big headlines in 2015. NASA’s Dawn spacecraft entered orbit around 1 Ceres on March 6th, 2015, gaving us the first stunning images of the ~900 kilometre diameter world. But whether you refer to Ceres as a dwarf planet, minor planet, or the king of the asteroid belt, this corner of the solar system’s terra incognita is finally open for exploration. It has been a long time coming, as Ceres has appeared as little more than a wandering, star-like dot in the telescopes of astronomers for over two centuries since discovery.

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The orbit of 1 Ceres. Credit: NASA/JPL

And the good news is, you can observe Ceres from your backyard if you know exactly where to look for it with binoculars or a small telescope. We’ll admit, we had an ulterior motive on pulling the trigger on this post three months prior to opposition on July 24th, as Dawn will soon be exiting its ‘shadow phase’ and start unveiling the world to us up close. The first science observations for Dawn begin in mid-April.

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The path of Ceres through the remainder of 2015. Credit: Starry Night Software.

Ceres spends all of 2015 looping through the constellations of Capricornus, Microscopium and Sagittarius. This places it low to the south for northern hemisphere observers on April 1st in the early morning sky. Ceres will pass into the evening sky by mid-summer. Ceres orbits the Sun once every 4.6 years in a 10.6 degree inclination path relative to the ecliptic that takes it 2.6 AU to 3 AU from the Sun. The synodic period of Ceres is, on average, 467 days from one opposition to the next.

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Ceres, Vesta and Mars group together in 2014. Image credit and copyright: Mary Spicer

Shining at magnitude +8, April 1st finds Ceres near the Capricornus/Sagittarius border. Ceres can reach magnitude +6.7 during a favorable opposition. Note that Ceres is currently only 20 degrees east of the position of Nova Sagittarii 2015 No. 2, currently still shining at 4th magnitude. June 29th and November 25th are also great times to hunt for Ceres in 2015 as it loops less than one degree past the 4th magnitude star Omega Capricorni.

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Ceres meets up with Omega Capricorni on June 29th. Credit: Stellarium.

You can nab Ceres by carefully noting its position against the starry background from night to night, either by sketching the suspect field, or photographing the region. Fans of dwarf planets will recall that 1 Ceres and 4 Vesta fit in the same telescopic field of view last summer, and now sit 30 degrees apart. Ceres is now far below the ecliptic plane, but will resume getting occulted by the passing Moon on February 3rd, 2017.

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The Palermo transit instrument used to discover Ceres. From Della Specola Astronomica (1792)

Ceres was discovered by Giuseppe Piazzi on the first day of the 19th century on January 1st, 1801. Ceres was located on the Aries/Cetus border just seven degrees from Mars during discovery. Piazzi wasn’t even on the hunt for new worlds at the time, but was instead making careful positional measurements of stars with the 7.5 centimetre Palermo Circle transit telescope.

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A 1802 publication by Piazzi describing his discovery of Ceres. Credit: Image in the Public Domain.

At the time, the discovery of Ceres was thought to provide predictive proof of the Titus-Bode law: here was a new planet, just where this arcane numerical spacing of the planets said it should be. Ceres, however, was soon joined by the likes of Juno, Pallas, Vesta and many more new worldlets, as astronomers soon came to realize that the solar system was not the neat and tidy place that it was imagined to be in the pre-telescopic era.

To date, the Titus-Bode law remains a mathematical curiosity, which fails to hold up to the discovery of brave new exoplanetary systems that we see beyond our own.

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Piazzi’s 1801 log describing the motion of Ceres against the starry background. Credit: Monatliche Correspondenz

The view from Ceres itself would be a fascinating one, as an observer on the Cererian surface would be treated to recurrent solar transits of interior solar system worlds. Mercury would be the most frequent, followed by Venus, which transits the Sun as seen from Ceres 3 times in the 21st century: August 1st, 2042, November 19th, 2058 and February 13th 2068. Mars actually transits the Sun as seen from Ceres even earlier on June 9th, 2033. Curiously, we found no transits of the Earth as seen from Ceres during the current millennium from 2000 to 3000 AD!

From Ceres, Jupiter would also appear 1.5’ in diameter near opposition, as opposed to paltry maximum of 50” in size as seen from the Earth. This would be just large enough for Jupiter to exhibit a tiny disk as seen from Ceres with the unaided eye. The four major Galilean moons would be visible as well.

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The 2033 solar transit of Mars as seen from Ceres. Credit: Starry Night Education Software.

The mysteries of Ceres beckon. Does the world harbor cryovolcanism? Just what are those two high albedo white dots? Are there any undiscovered moons orbiting the tiny world? If a fair amount of surface ice is uncovered, Ceres may soon become a more attractive target for human exploration than Mars.

All great thoughts to ponder, as this stellar speck in the eyepiece of your backyard telescope becomes a brand new world full of exciting possibilities.

 

Living with a Capricious Star: What Drives the Solar Cycle?

Solar energy energizes the drama of life on Earth, such as the bird caught transiting the solar disk as seen here. Image credit and copyright: Roger Hutchinson

You can be thankful that we bask in the glow of a relatively placid star. Currently about halfway along its 10 billion year career on the Main Sequence, our Sun fuses hydrogen into helium in a battle against gravitational collapse. This balancing act produces energy via the proton-proton chain process, which in turn, fuels the drama of life on Earth.

Looking out into the universe, we see stars that are much more brash and impulsive, such as red dwarf upstarts unleashing huge planet-sterilizing flares, and massive stars destined to live fast and die young.

Our Sun gives us the unprecedented chance to study a star up close, and our modern day technological society depends on keeping a close watch on what the Sun might do next. But did you know that some of the key mechanisms powering the solar cycle are still not completely understood?

Image credit: David Dickinson
One of the exceptionally active sunspot groups seen for Cycle #24 in early 2014. Image credit: David Dickinson

One such mystery confronting solar dynamics is exactly what drives the periodicity related to the solar cycle. Follow our star with a backyard telescope over a period of years, and you’ll see sunspots ebb and flow in an 11 year period of activity. The dazzling ‘surface’ of the Sun where these spots are embedded is actually the photosphere, and using a small telescope tuned to hydrogen-alpha wavelengths you can pick up prominences in the warmer chromosphere above.

This cycle is actually is 22 years in length (that’s 11 years times two), as the Sun flips polarity each time. A hallmark of the start of each solar cycle is the appearance of sunspots at high solar latitudes, which then move closer to the solar equator as the cycle progresses. You can actually chart this distribution in a butterfly diagram known as a Spörer chart, and this pattern was first recognized by Gustav Spörer in the late 19th century and is known as Spörer’s Law.

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The ‘Butterfly diagram’ of sunspot distribution by latitude over previous solar cycles. Image credit: NASA/Marshall Spaceflight Center

We’re currently in the midst of solar cycle #24, and the measurement of solar cycles dates all the way back to 1755. Galileo observed sunspots via projection (the tale that he went blind observing the Sun in apocryphal). We also have Chinese records going back to 364 BC, though historical records of sunspot activity are, well, spotty at best. The infamous Maunder Minimum occurred from 1645 to 1717 just as the age of telescopic astronomy was gaining steam. This dearth of sunspot activity actually led to the idea that sunspots were a mythical creation by astronomers of the time.

But sunspots are a true reality. Spots can grow larger than the Earth, such as sunspot active region 2192, which appeared just before a partial solar eclipse in 2014 and could be seen with the unaided (protected) eye. The Sun is actually a big ball of gas, and the equatorial regions rotate once every 25 days, 9 days faster than the rotational period near the poles. And speaking of which, it is not fully understood why we never see sunspots at the solar poles, which are tipped 7.25 degrees relative to the ecliptic.

Other solar mysteries persist. One amazing fact about our Sun is the true age of the sunlight shining in our living room window. Though it raced from the convective zone and through the photosphere of the Sun at 300,000 km per second and only took 8 minutes to get to your sunbeam-loving cat here on Earth, it took an estimated 10,000 to 170,000 years to escape the solar core where fusion is taking place. This is due to the terrific density at the Sun’s center, over seven times that of gold.

Another amazing fact is that we can actually model the happenings on the farside of the Sun utilizing a new fangled method known as helioseismology.

Another key mystery is why the current solar cycle is so weak… it has even been proposed that solar cycle 25 and 26 might be absent all together. Are there larger solar cycles waiting discovery? Again, we haven’t been watching the Sun close enough for long enough to truly ferret these ‘Grand Cycles’ out.

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The sunspot number predicted for the current Cycle #24 versus reality. Image credit: NASA

Are sunspot numbers telling us the whole picture? Sunspot numbers are calculated using formula that includes a visual count of sunspot groups and the individual sunspots in them that are currently facing Earthward, and has long served as the gold standard to gauge solar activity. Research conducted by the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor in 2013 has suggested that the orientation of the heliospheric current sheet might actually provide a better picture as to the goings on of the Sun.

Another major mystery is why the Sun has this 22/11 year cycle of activity in the first place. The differential rotation of the solar interior and convective zone known as the solar tachocline drives the powerful solar dynamo.  But why the activity cycle is the exact length that it is is still anyone’s guess. Perhaps the fossil field of the Sun was simply ‘frozen’ in the current cycle as we see it today.

There are ideas out there that Jupiter drives the solar cycle. A 2012 paper suggested just that. It’s an enticing theory for sure, as Jupiter orbits the Sun once every 11.9 years.

The motion of the solar barycenter through the last half of the 20th century. Image credit: Carl Smith/Wikimedia Commons
The motion of the solar barycenter through the last half of the 20th century. Image credit: Carl Smith/Wikimedia Commons

And a recent paper has even proposed that Uranus and Neptune might drive much longer cycles…

Color us skeptical on these ideas. Although Jupiter accounts for over 70% of the planetary mass in the solar system, it’s 1/1000th as massive as the Sun. The barycenter of Jupiter versus the Sun sits 36,000 kilometres above the solar surface, tugging the Sun at a rate of 12.4 metres per second.

Rigs to view the Sun in both hydrogen-alpha and visible light. Credit: David Dickinson
Rigs to view the Sun in both hydrogen-alpha and visible light. Credit: David Dickinson

I suspect this is a case of coincidence: the solar system provides lots of orbital periods of varying lengths, offering up lots of chances for possible mutual occurrences. A similar mathematical curiosity can be seen in Bode’s Law describing the mathematical spacing of the planets, which to date, has no known basis in reality. It appears to be just a neat play on numbers. Roll the cosmic dice long enough, and coincidences will occur. A good test for both ideas would be the discovery of similar relationships in other planetary systems. We can currently detect both starspots and large exoplanets: is there a similar link between stellar activity and exoplanet orbits? Demonstrate it dozens of times over, and a theory could become law.

That’s science, baby.