David Dickinson is an Earth science teacher, freelance science writer, retired USAF veteran & backyard astronomer. He currently writes and ponders the universe as he travels the world with his wife.
An artist's conception of one of the newly released exo-worlds, a planet orbiting an ancient planetary nebula. Credit: David A. Aguilar/CfA.
A fascinating set of finds was announced today at the 225th meeting of the American Astronomical Society (AAS), currently underway this week in Seattle, Washington. A team of astronomers announced the discovery of eight new planets potentially orbiting their host stars in their respective habitable zones. Also dubbed the ‘Goldilocks Zone,’ this is the distance where — like the tempting fairytale porridge — it’s not too hot, and not too cold, but juuusst right for liquid water to exist.
And chasing the water is the name of the game when it comes to hunting for life on other worlds. Two of the discoveries announced, Kepler-438b and Kepler-442b, are especially intriguing, as they are the most comparable to the Earth size-wise of any exoplanets yet discovered.
“Most of these planets have a good chance of being rocky, like Earth,” said Guillermo Torres in a recent press release. Guillermo is the lead author in the study for the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA).
This also doubles the count of suspected terrestrial exo-worlds — planets with less than twice the diameter of the Earth — inferred to orbit in the habitable zone of their host stars.
Fans on exoplanet science will remember the announcement of the first prospective Earth-like world orbiting in the habitable zone of its host star, Kepler-186f announced just last year.
The Kepler Space Telescope looks for planets used a technique known as the transit method. If a planet is orbiting its host star along our line of sight, a small but measurable dip in the star’s brightness occurs. This has advantages over the radial velocity technique because it allows researchers to pin down the hidden planet’s orbit and size much more precisely. The transit method is biased, however, to planets close in to its host which happen to lie along our solar system-bound line of sight. Kepler may miss most exo-worlds inclined out of its view, but it overcomes this by staring at thousands of stars.
The launch of Kepler from the Cape in 2009. Credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett.
Launched in 2009, Kepler has wrapped up its primary phase of starring at a patch of sky along the plane of the Milky Way in the directions of the constellations of Cygnus, Lyra and Hercules, and is now in its extended K2 mission using the solar wind pressure as a 3rd ‘reaction wheel’ to carry out targeted searches along the ecliptic plane.
Both newly discovered worlds highlighted in today’s announcement orbit distant red dwarf stars. Kepler-438 b is estimated to be 12% larger in diameter than the Earth, and Kepler-442 b is estimated by the team to be 33% larger. These worlds have a 70% and 60% chance of being rocky, respectively. For comparison, Ice giant planet Uranus is 4 times the diameter of the Earth, and over 14 times more massive.
A comparison of the new exoplanet finds between Earth and Jupiter. Credit: NASA/Kepler.
“We don’t know for sure whether any of the planets in our sample are truly habitable,” Said CfA co-researcher in the study David Kipping. All we can say is that they’re promising candidates.”
The idea of habitable worlds around red dwarf stars is a tantalizing one. These stars are fainter and cooler than our Sun, and 7.5% to 50% as massive. They also have two primary factors going for them: they’re the most common type of stars in the universe, and they have life spans measured in trillions of years, much longer than the current age of the universe. If life could go from muck to making microwave dinners here on Earth in just a few billion years, it’s had lots longer to do the same on worlds orbiting red dwarf stars.
There is, however, one catch: the habitable zone surrounding a red dwarf is much closer in to its host star, and any would-be planet is subject to frequent surface-sterilizing flares. Perhaps a world with a synchronous rotation might be spared this fate and feature a habitable hemisphere well inside the snow line permanently turned away from its host.
The team made these discoveries by sifting though Kepler’s preliminary finds that are termed KOI’s, or Kepler Objects of Interest. Though these potential discoveries were far too small to pin down their masses using the traditional method, the team employed a program named BLENDER to statically validate the finds. BLENDER has been employed before in concert with backup observations for extremely tiny exoplanet discoveries. Torres and Francois Fressin developed the BLENDER program, and it is currently run on the massive Pleiades supercomputer at NASA Ames.
It was also noted in today’s press conference that two KOIs awaiting validation — 5737.01 and 2194.03 — may also prove to be terrestrial worlds orbiting Sun-like stars that are possibly similar in size to the Earth.
The proposed target regions for the Kepler K2 mission. Credit: NASA/Kepler.
But don’t plan on building an interstellar ark and heading off to these newly found worlds just yet. Kepler-438b sits 470 light years from Earth, and Kepler-442b is even farther away at 1,100 light years. And we’ll also add our usual caveat and caution that, from a distance, the planet Venus in our own solar system might look like a tempting vacation spot. (Spoiler alert: it’s not).
Still, these discoveries are fascinating finds and add to the growing menagerie of exoplanet systems. These will also serve as great follow up targets for TESS, Gaia and LSST survey, all set to add to our exoplanet knowledge in the coming decade.
The LSST mirror in the Tuscon Mirror Lab. (Photo by author).
And to think, I remember growing up as a child of the 1970s reading that exoplanet detections were soooo difficult that they might never occur in our lifetime… now, fast-forward to 2015, and we’re beginning to classify and characterize other brave new solar systems in the modern Age of Exoplanet Science.
-Looking to observe red dwarf stars with your backyard scope? Check out our handy list.
Missing Venus? The third brightest natural object in the heavens returns to prime time dusk skies in 2015 after being absent and lingering in the dawn for most of 2014. But there’s another reason to hunt down the Cytherean world this week, as elusive Mercury chases after it low in the dusk. If you’ve never seen Mercury for yourself, now is a great time to try, using brilliant Venus as a guide.
The circumstances surrounding this pairing are intriguing. We have to admit, we missed this close conjunction whilst filtering through research for the Top 101 Astronomical Events for 2015 due to those very same unique attributes until an astute reader of Universe Today pointed it out.
Venus and Mercury setting over the Duluth, Minnesota skyline on December 31st. Credit and copyright: Bob King.
On the evening of January 5th, Venus shines at magnitude -3.3 and sits about 18 degrees east of the Sun in dusk skies. You’ll have a narrow window of opportunity to nab Venus, as it’ll sit only 10 degrees above the southwestern horizon as seen from latitude 40 degrees north about an hour after sunset. Make sure you have a clear, uncluttered horizon, and start sweeping the field with binoculars about half an hour after sunset.
Do you see a tiny point of light about a degree and a half to Venus’s lower right? That’s Mercury, just beginning its first dusk apparition of seven for 2015, the most possible in a calendar year. Shining at -0.7 magnitude, Mercury is currently about 8 times fainter than Venus, and drops to +1.4 magnitude by late January.
If you watch the pair on successive evenings, you’ll see Mercury — aptly named after the fleet-footed Roman god — racing to rapidly close the gap. Mercury crosses the one degree separation threshold from January 8th through January 12th, and sits just 39’ — slightly larger than the apparent size of the Full Moon — right around 7:00 PM EST/Midnight Universal Time on January 10th, favoring dusk along eastern North America just a few hours prior.
Venus and Mercury as seen from Venezuela on January 2nd. Credit and copyright: Jose Rozada.
This also means that you’ll be able to squeeze both Mercury and Venus into the same low power telescopic field of view. They’ll both even show the same approximate gibbous phase, with Venus presenting a 10.5” sized 95% illuminated disk, and Mercury subtending 6” in apparent diameter with a 74% illuminated visage. Venus will seem to be doing its very own mocking impersonation of the Earth, appearing to have a single large moon… Neith, the spurious pseudo-moon of Venus lives!
One curious facet of this week’s conjunction is the fact that Venus and Mercury approach, but never quite meet each other in right ascension. We call such a near miss a “quasi-conjunction.” This is the closest pairing of Venus and Mercury since 2012, though you have to go all the way back to 2005 for one that was easily observable, and the last true quasi-conjunction was in October 2001. Miss this week’s event, and you’ll have to wait until May 13th 2016 to catch Mercury — fresh off of transiting the Sun a week earlier — passing just 26’ from Venus only 6.5 degrees west of the Sun. This is unobservable from your backyard, but SOHO’s LASCO C3 camera’s 15 degree wide field of view will have a front row cyber-seat.
The dusk path of Venus through early 2015. Credit: Starry Night Education software.
In 2015, Venus will become ever more prominent in the dusk sky before reaching greatest elongation 45.4 degrees east of the Sun on June 6th, 2015. The angle of the January ecliptic at dusk is currently shoving Mercury and Venus southward for northern hemisphere observers, though that’ll change dramatically as we head towards the March equinox. Venus reaches solar conjunction sans transit (which last occurred in 2012 and won’t happen again til 2117 A.D.) on August 15th before heading towards its second elongation of 2015 on October 26th in the dawn sky. And don’t forget, it’s possible to see Venus in the daytime as it approaches greatest elongation. Venus is also occulted by the Moon 4 times in 2015, including a fine daytime occultation on December 7th for North America.
The path of Mercury through January 2015. Credit: Starry Night Education software.
This month, Mercury reaches greatest eastern elongation on January 14th at 18.9 degrees east of the Sun. Mercury begins retrograde movement later this month — one of the prime reasons this week’s conjunction is quasi — before resuming direct (eastward) motion as seen from our terrestrial vantage point. Though it may seem convenient to blame your earthly woes on Mercury in retrograde as astrologers will have you believe, this is just an illusion of planetary orbital motion. And speaking of motion, Mercury transits the Sun next year on May 9th.
Venus and Mercury as seen from Tucson, Arizona on January 3rd. Credit and copyright: John Barentine (@JohnBarentine)
Mercury and Venus factor in to space exploration in 2015 as well. NASA’s MESSENGER spacecraft wraps up its successful mission in orbit around Mercury in a few months, and the Japanese Space Agency takes another crack at putting its Akatsuki spacecraft in orbit around Venus this coming November.
So don’t fear the bone-chilling January temps (or Mercury in retrograde) but do get out there these coming evenings and check out the fine celestial waltz being performed by the solar system’s two innermost worlds.
A splendid capture of comet Q2 Lovejoy as it passes near M79 at the end of 2014. Credit and copyright: Andre van der Hoeven.
Have you seen the amazing pics? A bright comet graces evening skies this month, assuring that 2015 is already on track to be a great year for astronomy.
We’re talking about Comet C/2014 Q2 Lovejoy. Discovered by comet hunter extraordinaire Terry Lovejoy on August 17th, 2014, this denizen of the Oort Cloud has already wowed observers as it approaches its passage perihelion through the inner solar system in the coming week.
First, our story thus far. We’ve been following all Comet Q2 Lovejoy action pretty closely here at Universe Today, from its surreptitious brightening ahead of schedule, to its recent tail disconnection event, to its photogenic passage past the +8.6 magnitude globular cluster Messier 79 (M79) in the constellation Lepus. We also continue to be routinely blown away by reader photos of the comet. And, like the Hare for which Lepus is named, Q2 Lovejoy is now racing rapidly northward, passing into the rambling constellation of Eridanus the River before entering the realm of Taurus the Bull on January 9th and later crossing the ecliptic plane in Aries.
The path of Comet Q2 Lovejoy from January 2nd to the 31st. Ticks mark the position of the comet at 7PM EST/midnight Universal Time. Credit: Created using Starry Night Education software.
And the best window of opportunity for spying the comet is coming right up. We recently caught our first sight of Q2 Lovejoy a few evenings ago with our trusty Canon 15x 45 image-stabilized binocs from Mapleton, Maine. Even as seen from latitude 47 degrees north and a frosty -23 Celsius (-10 Fahrenheit) — a far cry from our usual Florida based perspective — the comet was an easy catch as a bright fuzz ball. Q2 Lovejoy was just outside of naked eye visibility for us this week, though I suspect that this will change as the Moon moves out of the evening picture this weekend.
Currently shining at magnitude +5.5, Comet Q2 Lovejoy has already been spied by eagle-eyed observers unaided from dark sky sites to the south. Astrophotographers have revealed its long majestic dust and ion tails, as well as the greenish hue characteristic of bright comets. That green color isn’t kryptonite, but the fluorescing of diatomic carbon and cyanogen gas shed by the comet as it’s struck by ultraviolet sunlight. This greenish color is far more apparent in photographs, though it might just be glimpsed visually if the intrinsic brightness of the coma exceeds expectations. Q2 Lovejoy just passed opposition at 0.48 AU from the Earth today on January 2nd, and will make its closest passage from our fair world on January 7th at 0.47 AU (43.6 million kilometres) distant.
Comet Q2 Lovejoy via Iphone (!) and a NexStra 8SE telescope. Credit and copyright: Andrew Symes.
What’s so special about the coming week? Well, we also cross a key milestone for evening observing, as the light-polluting Moon reaches Full phase on Sunday January 5th at 4:54 UT (11:54 PM EDT on the 4th) and begins sliding out of the evening sky on successive evenings. That’s good news, as Comet Q2 Lovejoy enters the “prime time” evening sky and culminates over the southern horizon at around 10:30 PM local this weekend, then 8:00 PM on January the 15th, and just before 6:00 PM by January 31st.
While many comets put on difficult to observe dusk or dawn appearances — the 2013 apparition of another comet, C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS comes to mind — Q2 Lovejoy is well placed this month in the early evening hours.
The current projected peak brightness for Comet Q2 Lovejoy is +4th magnitude right around mid-January. Already, the comet is bright enough and well-placed to the south for northern hemisphere observers that it’s possible to catch astrophotos of the comet along with foreground objects. If you’ve got a tripod mounted DSLR give it a try… it’s as simple as aiming, focusing manually with a wide field of view, and taking 10 to 30 second exposures to see what turns up. Longer shots will call for sky tracking via a barn-door or motorized mount. Binoculars are you friend in your comet-hunting quest, as they can be readily deployed in sub-zero January temps and provide a generous field of view.
Q2 Lovejoy will also pass near the open clusters of the Hyades and the Pleiades through mid-January, and cross into the constellations of Aries and Triangulum by late January before heading northward to pass between the famous Double Cluster in Perseus and the Andromeda Galaxy M31 in February, proving further photo ops.
From there, Q2 Lovejoy is expected to drop below naked eye visibility in late February before passing very near the North Star Polaris and the northern celestial pole at the end of May on its way out of the inner solar system on its 8,000 year journey.
So, although 2014 didn’t produce the touted “comet of the century,” 2015 is already getting off to a pretty good start in terms of comets. We’re out looking nearly every clear night, and the next “big one” could always drop by at anytime… but hopefully, the first discovery baring the name “Comet Dickinson” will merely put on a spectacular show, and not prove to be an extinction level event…
A new Avengers movie. A reboot of the Star Wars franchise. The final installment of the Hunger Games. The Martian makes it to the big screen. Yup, even if the zombie apocalypse occurs in 2015, it’ll still be a great year. But trading science fiction for fact, we’re also on track for a spectacular year in space science and exploration as well.
Humanity will get its first good look at Ceres and Pluto, giving us science writers some new pics to use instead of the same half dozen blurry dots and artist’s conceptions. SpaceX will also attempt a daring landing on a sea platform, and long duration missions aboard the International Space Station will get underway. And key technology headed to space and on Earth may lead the way to opening up the window of gravitational wave astronomy on the universe. Here’s 10 sure-fire bets to watch for in the coming year from Universe Today:
LISA Pathfinder deployed at L1. Credit: ESA/Artist’s concept.
10. LISA Pathfinder
A precursor to a full-fledged gravitational wave detector in space, LISA Pathfinder will be launching atop a Vega rocket from Kourou, French Guiana in July 2015. LISA stands for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, and the Pathfinder mission will journey to the L1 Lagrange point between the Earth and the Sun to test key technologies. LISA Pathfinder will pave the way for the full fledged LISA space platform, a series of three free flying spacecraft proposed for launch in the 2030s.
Looking down one of the arms of LIGO Hanford. Credit: Photo by author.
9. AdLIGO Goes Online
And speaking of gravitational waves, we may finally get the first direct detection of the same in 2015, when Advanced LIGO is set to go online. Comprised of two L-shaped detectors, one based in Livingston Louisiana, and another in Hanford Washington, AdLIGO will feature ten times the sensitivity of the original LIGO observatory. In fact, as was the case of the hunt for the Higgs-Boson by CERN, a non-detection of gravitational waves by AdLIGO would be a much stranger result!
A replica of the Hubble Space Telescope on display at the Kennedy Space Center. Credit: Photo by author.
8. Hubble Turns 25
Launched on April 24th, 1990 aboard the Space Shuttle Discovery, the Hubble Space Telescope celebrates 25 years in space in 2015. The final servicing mission in 2009 gave Hubble a reprieve from the space junk scrap heap, and the orbiting telescope is still going strong. Hubble has no less than pushed the limits in modern astronomy to become a modern icon of the space age.
MESSENGER wraps up its mission in 2015. Credit: NASA/MESSENGER/JPL/APL.
7. The End of MESSENGER
NASA’s Mercury exploring spacecraft wraps up its mission next year. Launched in 2004, MESSENGER arrived in orbit around Mercury after a series of flybys on March 18th, 2011. MESSENGER has mapped the innermost world in detail, and studied the space environment and geology of Mercury. In late March 2015, MESSENGER will achieve one final first, when it impacts the surface of Mercury at the end of its extended mission.
Akatsuki on Earth prior to departure. Credit: JAXA.
6. Akatsuki at Venus
This Japanese spacecraft missed orbital insertion a few years back, but gets a second chance at life in 2015. Launched in 2010 atop an H-IIA rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center in Japan, Akatsuki failed to enter orbit around Venus at the end of 2010, and instead headed out for a heliocentric path around the Sun. Some quick thinking by JAXA engineers led to a plan to attempt to place Akatsuki in Venusian orbit in November 2015. This would be a first for the Japanese space agency, as attempts by JAXA at placing a spacecraft in orbit around another planet – including the Mars Nozomi probe – have thus far failed.
The target for the Falcon-9 first stage later next week. Credit: SpaceX.
5. SpaceX to Attempt to Land on a Sea Platform
It’ll definitely rock if they pull it off next week: on January 6th, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will lift off from Cape Canaveral with its Dragon spacecraft headed to the International Space Station on mission CRS-5. Sure, these resupply missions are becoming routine, but after liftoff, SpaceX is attempting something new and daring: landing the Falcon-9 first stage Buck Rodgers style, “fins first” on a floating barge. This is the next step in ultimately proving the feasibility of having the rocket fly back to the launch site for eventual reuse. If nothing else, expect some stunning video of the attempt soon!
An artist’s concept of an asteroid retrieval mission. Credit: NASA.
4. NASA to Decide on an Asteroid Mission
Some major decisions as to the fate and the future of manned space exploration are due next year, as NASA is expected to decide on the course of action for its Asteroid Redirect Mission. The current timeline calls for the test of the SLS rocket in 2018, and the launch of a spacecraft to recover an asteroid and place it in orbit around the Moon in 2019. If all goes according to plan – a plan which could always shift with the political winds and future changes in administrations – we could see astronauts exploring a captured asteroid by the early 2020s.
Astronaut Scott Kelly (left), and cosmonaut Mikhail Korniyenko. Credit: NASA/Roscomos.
3. Long Duration ISS Missions
Beginning in 2015, astronauts and cosmonauts will begin year-long stays aboard the ISS to study the effects of long duration space missions. In March of 2015, cosmonaut Mikhail Korniyenko and U.S. astronaut Scott Kelly will launch as part of Expedition 43 headed to the ISS. The Russians have conducted stays in space longer than a year aboard the Mir space station, but Kelly’s stay aboard the ISS will set a duration record for NASA astronauts. Perhaps, a simulated “Mars mission” aboard the ISS could be possible in the coming years?
An artist’s concept of Dawn approaching 1 Ceres. Credit: NASA/JPL.
2. Dawn at Ceres
Fresh off of exploring Vesta, NASA’s Dawn spacecraft will become the first mission to enter orbit around a second object, the asteroid 1 Ceres next year in April 2015. The largest asteroid and the first object of its kind discovered on the first day of the 19th century, Ceres looks to be a fascinating world in its own right. Does it possess water ice? Active geology? Moons of its own? If Dawn’s performance at Vesta was any indication, we’re in for another exhilarating round of space exploration!
And artist’s conception of New Horizons at Pluto. Credit: NASA/JPL/Thierry Lombry.
1. New Horizons at Pluto
An easy No. 1,we finally get our first good look at Pluto in July, as NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft flies less than 14,000 kilometres from the surface of the distant world. Launched in 2006, New Horizons will “thread the needle” between Pluto and Charon in a flurry of activity as it passes by. New Horizons will then turn back as it passes into the shadows of Pluto and Charon and actually view the two worlds as they occult the distant Sun. And from there, New Horizons will head out to explore Kuiper Belt Objects of opportunity.
And these are just the top stories that are slated to be big news in space in 2015. Remember, another Chelyabinsk meteor or the next big comet could drop by at any time… space news can be unpredictable, and its doubtless that 2015 will have lots more surprises in store.
Don't fear the moonlight... Credit and copyright: John Chumack.
Quick… what’s the only major meteor shower named after a defunct constellation? If you said the January Quadrantids, you’d be correct, as this often elusive but abrupt meteor shower is set to peak this coming weekend early in 2015.
And we do mean early, as in the night of January 3rd going into the morning of January 4th. This is a bonus, as early January means long dark nights for northern hemisphere observers. But the 2015 Quadrantids also has two strikes going against them however: first, the Moon reaches Full just a day later on January 5th, and second, January also means higher than average prospects for cloud cover (and of course, frigid temps!) for North American observers.
The rising radiant of the Quads on the morning of January 4th at 3AM local. Note that the Moon and Jupiter are on the scene as well. Created using Starry Night Education software.
Don’t despair, however. In meteor shower observing as in hockey, you miss 100% of the shots that you don’t take.
Sorry for the sports analogy. The radiant for the Quadrantids is located in the modern day constellation of Draco near the Hercules-Boötes border at a right ascension 15 hours, 18 minutes and declination +49.5 degrees north. This puts it very near the +3.3 magnitude star Iota Draconis (Edasich).
The orientation of the Earth’s shadow at the predicted peak of the Quads on January 4th, 2:00 UT. Credit: Orbitron.
In 2015, bets are on for the Quadrantids to peak centered on 2:00 UT January 4th (9:00 PM EST on the 3rd), favoring northern Europe pre-dawn. The duration for the Quadrantids is short lived, with an elevated rate approaching 100 per hour lasting only six hours in duration. Keep in mind, of course, that it’ll be worth starting your vigil on Saturday morning January 3rd in the event that the “Quads” kick off early! I definitely wouldn’t pass up on an early clear morning on the 3rd, just in case skies are overcast on the morning of the 4th…
Due to their high northern radiant, the Quadrantids are best from high northern latitudes and virtually invisible down south of the equator. Keep in mind that several other meteor showers are active in early January, and you may just spy a lingering late season Geminid or Ursid ‘photobomber’ as well among the background sporadics.
Moonset on the morning of the 4th occurs around 6 AM local, giving observers a slim one hour moonless window as dawn approaches. Blocking the Moon out behind a building or hill when selecting your observing site will aid you in your Quadrantid quest.
The approximate realm of the “Mural Quadrant” overlaid on modern day constellations. Credit Stellarium.
Antonio Brucalassi made the first historical reference to the Quadrantids, noting that “the atmosphere was traversed by… falling stars” on the morning of January 2nd, 1825. It’s interesting to note that the modern day peak for the Quads has now drifted a few days to the fourth, due mostly to the leap year-induced vagaries of our Gregorian calendar. The early January meteor shower was noted throughout the 19th century, and managed to grab its name from the trendy 19th century constellation of Quadrans Muralis, or the Mural Quadrant. Hey, we’re lucky that other also-rans, such as Lumbricus the ‘Earthworm’ and Officina Typograhica the ‘Printing Office’ fell to the wayside when the International Astronomical Union formalized the modern 88 constellations in 1922. Today, we know that the Quadrantids come from 2003 EH1, which is thought to be an extinct comet now trapped in the inner solar system on a high inclination, 5.5 year orbit. Could 2003 EH1 be related to the Great Comet of 1490, as some suggest? The enigmatic object reached perihelion in March of 2014, another plus in the positive column for the 2015 Quads.
What the heck is a Mural Quadrant? Like everything he did, Tycho Brahe super-sized his quadrant, depicted here. Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
Previous years for the Quadrantids have yielded the following Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) maximums as per the International Meteor Organization:
2011= 90
2012= 83
2013= 137
2014= +200
The Quadrantid meteor stream has certainly undergone alterations over the years as a result of encounters with the planet Jupiter, and researchers have suggested that the shower may go the way of the 19th century Andromedids and become extinct entirely in the centuries to come.
Don’t let cold weather deter you, though be sure to bundle up, pour a hot toddy (or tea or coffee, as alcohol impacts the night vision) and keep a spare set of batteries in a warm pocket for that DSLR camera, as cold temps can kill battery packs quicker than you can say Custos Messium, the Harvest Keeper.
And though it may be teeth-chatteringly cold where you live this weekend, we actually reach our closest point to the Sun this Sunday, as Earth reaches perihelion on January 4th at around 8:00 UT, just 5 hours after the Quads are expected to peak. We’re just over 147 million kilometres from the Sun at perihelion, a 5 million kilometre difference from aphelion in July. Be thankful we live on a planet with a relatively circular orbit. Only Venus and Neptune beat us out in the true roundness department!
…and no, you CAN’T defy gravity around perihelion, despite the current ill conceived rumor going ‘round ye ole net…
And as a consolation prize to southern hemisphere observers, the International Space Station reaches a period of full illumination and makes multiple visible passes starting December 30th until January 3rd. This happens near every solstice, with the December season favoring the southern hemisphere, and June favoring the northern.
A 2003 south bound Quad nabbed from Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico (Yes, that’s the Southern Cross!) Credit and Copyright: Frankie Lucena.
So don’t let the relatively bad prospects for the 2015 Quadrantids deter you: be vigilant, report those meteor counts to the IMO, send those meteor pics in to Universe Today and tweet those Quads to #Meteorwatch. Let’s “party like it’s 1899,” and get the namesake of an archaic and antiquated constellation trending!
Now in its seventh year of compilation and the second year running on Universe Today, we’re proud to feature our list of astronomical happenings for the coming year. Print it, bookmark it, hang it on your fridge or observatory wall. Not only is this the yearly article that we jokingly refer to as the “blog post it takes us six months to write,” but we like to think of it as unique, a mix of the mandatory, the predictable and the bizarre. It’s not a 10 ten listicle, and not a full-fledged almanac, but something in between.
A rundown of astronomy for 2015: There’s lots of astronomical action to look forward to in the coming year. 2015 features the minimum number of eclipses that can occur, two lunars and two solars. The Moon also reaches its minimum standstill this coming year, as its orbit runs shallow relative to the celestial equator. The Moon will also occult all naked eye planets except Saturn in 2015, and will occult the bright star Aldebaran 13 times — once during every lunation in 2015. And speaking of Saturn, the rings of the distant planet are tilted an average of 24 degrees and opening to our line of sight in 2015 as they head towards their widest in 2018.
Finally, solar activity is trending downwards in 2015 after passing the sputtering 2014 maximum for solar cycle #24 as we now head towards a solar minimum around 2020.
Our best bets: Don’t miss these fine celestial spectacles coming to a sky near YOU next year:
– The two final total lunar eclipses in the ongoing tetrad, one on April 4th and September 28th.
– The only total solar eclipse of 2015 on March 20th, crossing the high Arctic.
– A fine dusk pairing of the bright planets Jupiter and Venus on July 1st.
– Possible wildcard outbursts from the Alpha Monocerotid and Taurid meteors, and a favorable New Moon near the peak of the August Perseids.
– Possible naked eye appearances by comet Q2 Lovejoy opening 2015 and comet US10 Catalina later in the year.
– The occultation of a naked eye star for Miami by an asteroid on September 3rd.
– A series of fine occultations by the Moon of bright star Aldebaran worldwide.
The rules: The comprehensive list that follows has been lovingly distilled down to the top 101 astronomical events for 2015 worldwide. Some, such as lunar eclipses, are visible to a wide swath of humanity, while others, such as many of the asteroid occultations or the sole total solar eclipse of 2015 happen over remote locales. We whittled the list down to a “Top 101” using the following criterion:
Meteor showers: Must have a predicted ZHR greater than 10.
Conjunctions: Must be closer than one degree.
Asteroid occultations: Must have a probability ranking better than 90 and occult a star brighter than magnitude +8.
Comets: Must reach a predicted brightness greater than magnitude +10. But remember: comets don’t always read prognostications such as this, and may over or under perform at whim… and the next big one could come by at any time!
Times quoted are geocentric unless otherwise noted, and are quoted in Universal Time in a 24- hour clock format.
These events are meant to merely whet the appetite. Expect ‘em to be expounded on fully by Universe Today as they approach. We linked to the events listed where possible, and provided a handy list of resources that we routinely consult at the end of the article.
Got it? Good… then without further fanfare, here’s the top 101 astronomical events for 2015 in chronological order:
The path of Comet Q2 Lovejoy from January 1st to January 31st. Created using Starry Night Education software.
29- The Moon occults Aldebaran at ~17:31 UT for the Arctic, marking the first of 13 occultations of the star by the Moon in 2015.
The view at 6:40 UT on January 24th, as 3 of Jupiter’s moons cast shadows on to the Jovian cloud tops simultaneously. Created using Starry Night Education software.
February
01- Venus passes 0.8 degrees south of Neptune at ~17:00 UT.
05- Earth crosses through Jupiter’s equatorial plane, marking the middle of occultation and eclipse season for the Galilean moons.
06- Jupiter reaches opposition at ~18:00 UT.
18- A “Black Moon” occurs, in the sense of the third New Moon in a season with four.
22- Venus passes 0.4 degrees south of Mars at 5:00 UT.
24- Mercury reaches greatest morning elongation at 26.7 degrees west of the Sun at 19:00 UT.
21- Io and Ganymede both cast shadows on Jupiter from 00:04 to 00:33 UT.
21- Callisto and Europa both cast shadows on Jupiter from 13:26 to 13:59 UT.
23- Saturn reaches opposition at ~1:00 UT.
24- Asteroid 1669 Dagmar occults the +1st magnitude star Regulus at ~16:47 UT for the Arabian peninsula,
the brightest star occulted by an asteroid for 2015.
28- Ganymede and Io both cast shadows on Jupiter from 02:01 to 04:18 UT.
30- Comet 19P/Borrelly may reach binocular visibility.
June
01- The International Space Station reaches full illumination as the June solstice nears, resulting in multiple nightly passes favoring northern hemisphere observers.
04- Io and Ganymede both cast shadows on Jupiter from 4:54 to 6:13 UT.
05- Venus reaches greatest eastern (dusk) elongation for 2015, 45 degrees from the Sun at 16:00 UT.
10- Asteroid 424 Gratia occults a +6.1 magnitude star at ~15:10 UT for northwestern Australia.
13- The Perseid meteors peak from 06:30 to 09:00 UT, with a maximum predicted ZHR of 100 favoring North America.
19- Mars crosses the Beehive Cluster M44.
28- Asteroid 16 Psyche occults a +6.4 magnitude star at ~9:49 UT for Bolivia and Peru.
29- Supermoon 1 of 3 for 2015: The Moon reaches Full at 18:38 UT, 20 hours from perigee.
The path of the Moon through the Earth’s shadow on September 28th. Credit: Fred Espenak/NASA/GSFC
September
01- Neptune reaches opposition at ~3:00 UT.
03- Asteroid 112 Iphigenia occults a +3rd magnitude star for Mexico and Miami at ~9:20 UT. This is the brightest star occulted by an asteroid in 2015 for North America.
02- Geostationary satellite and SDO eclipse season begins as we approach the September equinox.
04- Mercury reaches its greatest elongation for 2015, at 27 degrees east of the Sun at 8:00 UT in the dusk skies.
05- The Moon occults Aldebaran for northeastern North America at ~5:38 UT.
13- “Shallow point” (also known as the minor lunar standstill) occurs over the next lunation, as the Moon’s orbit reaches a shallow minimum of 18.1 degrees inclination with respect to the celestial equator… the path of the Moon now begins to widen towards 2025.
13- A partial solar eclipse occurs, centered on 6:55 UT crossing Africa and the Indian Ocean.
25- Mars passes 0.8 degrees from Regulus at ~4:00 UT.
28- A total lunar eclipse occurs centered on 2:48 UT, visible from the Pacific, the Americas and eastern Europe.
28- Supermoon 2 of 3 for 2015: The Moon reaches Full at 2:52 UT, approximately an hour from perigee. This marks the closest Full Moon of the year.
The path of the September 3rd occultation of a +3rd magnitude star by an asteroid over central Mexico and the Florida Keys. Credit: IOTA/Steve Preston.
The Moon occults Aldebaran: the visibility footprint for North America. The dashed line denotes the area in which the event occurs during the daytime. Credit: Occult 4.1.0.11.
November
01- Io and Ganymede both cast shadows on Jupiter from 17:36 to 17:47 UT.
02- Venus passes 0.7 degrees south of Mars at 00:30 UT.
12- Will the 7 year “Taurid fireball meteor shower” produce?
18- The Leonid meteor shower peaks at 04:00 UT, with an estimated ZHR of 15 favoring Europe.
22- Are we in for a once per decade Alpha Monocerotids outburst? The 2015 peak arrives at 4:25 UT, favoring Europe… with a max ZHR = 400+ possible.
The daytime occultation of Venus by the Moon over North America on December 7th.Credit: Occult 4.1.0.11.
December
01- The International Space Station reaches full illumination as the December solstice nears, resulting in multiple nightly passes favoring the southern hemisphere.
04- Mercury occults the +3.3 magnitude star Theta Ophiuchi for South Africa at 16:16 UT prior to dusk.
06- The Moon occults Mars for central Africa at ~2:42 UT.
07- The Moon occults Venus in the daytime for North America at ~16:55 UT.
14- The Geminid meteor shower peaks at 18:00 UT, with a ZHR=120 favoring NE Asia.
Keeping warm? Yesterday marked the start of astronomical winter for the northern hemisphere, meaning long nights and (hopefully) clear, cold skies. But we’ve also got another reason to brave the cold this week, as Comet C/2014 Q2 Lovejoy is set to put on a show for northern hemisphere observers.
Already, Comet Q2 Lovejoy has been providing southern hemisphere observers with a fine celestial showing. Discovered by Australian comet hunter extraordinaire Terry Lovejoy on August 17th of this year as it glided across the constellation Puppis, Q2 Lovejoy has been brightening through early December ahead of expectations. We’ve already been getting some great images from Universe Today readers down south, and we can expect more in the weeks to come. This is Mr. Lovejoy’s fifth comet discovery, and many will remember how comet C/2011 W3 Lovejoy also survived a perilous perihelion passage just 140,000 kilometres from the surface of the Sun during the 2011 holiday season and went on to produce a brilliant display.
Q2 Lovejoy plus negative image taken from New Mexico on December 20th. Credit and copyright: Joseph Brimacombe.
Currently shining at magnitude +5.5, Q2 Lovejoy is a fine target for binoculars or a small telescope as it crosses the southern constellation of Columba into Lepus just after Christmas Day. Sirius currently makes a good guidepost, as the comet sits about 19 degrees southeast of the brightest star in the sky. And speaking of Sirius, don’t forget to try your hand at spotting its white dwarf companion in 2015!
A black and white view of Comet Lovejoy, taken on Dec. 21, 2014, highlighting the comet’s dramatic tail. Credit and copyright: Damian Peach.
Q2 Lovejoy also has a high orbital inclination of 80.3 degrees relative to the ecliptic, which is good news, as it will be plunging rapidly northward as it makes its closest passage by Earth on January 7th at 70.2 million kilometres or 0.47 A.U.s distant. Note that not only will the comet pass extremely close to the globular cluster M79 (photo op!) on the night of December 29th, but will also pass within 10 degrees of the Pleiades in January before threading its way northward between the famous Double Cluster in Perseus and the Andromeda Galaxy.
Clouded out? You can catch Comet Q2 Lovejoy courtesy of Gianluca Masi and our good friends over at the Virtual Telescope Project live on January 6th and January 11th at 19:00 Universal Time/2:00 PM EST on both dates:
Note: the photo is of Comet C/2014 E2 Jacques from earlier this year. (Credit: the Virtual Telescope Project).
Expect Q2 Lovejoy to ride highest to the south around local midnight starting on January 1st, and transit the local meridian at 8-9 PM local by mid-month. Keen eyed observers have already managed to spy Q2 Lovejoy unaided from a dark sky site, and we expect this to be the general case for most observers by New Year’s Day. As of this writing, Q2 Lovejoy displays a fine coma 10’ wide with a 7 degree long, fan-shaped tail.
Comet Q2 Lovejoy imaged from Siding Spring Observatory in New South Wales, Australia on December 18th. Credit and copyright: Roger Hutchinson.
Here’s our handy blow-by-blow for Comet Q2 Lovejoy in the coming weeks:
December
28- Crosses into the constellation Lepus.
29- Passes less than 10’ — a third of the diameter of the Full Moon — from the 7.7 magnitude globular cluster NGC 1904 (Messier 79).
The path of Comet Q2 Lovejoy from December 23rd through February 1st. Credit: Starry Night Education software.
January
1- May break naked eye visibility at magnitude +6.
2- Passes into the constellation Eridanus and reaches opposition at 0.49 A.U.s from the Earth.
5- The Moon reaches Full, hampering observations.
7- May reach a peak brightness at +4th magnitude.
7- Passes closest to Earth 0.47 AU, moving at an apparent speed of almost 3 degrees a day.
9- Crosses the celestial equator into the constellation Taurus.
17- Crosses the ecliptic plane and into the constellation Aries.
20- Moon reaches New phase, marking a favorable span for observation.
22- Passes within one degree of the 3.6 magnitude star 41 Arietis.
25- Crosses into the constellation Triangulum.
30- Reaches perihelion at 1.29 A.U.
30- Crosses into the constellation Andromeda.
The position of Q2 Lovejoy on New Year’s Day. Credit: NASA/JPL.
February
3- The Moon reaches Full phase, hampering observations.
4- Passes less than one degree from the 2.1 magnitude star Gamma Andromedae (Almach).
18- The Moon reaches New, marking a favorable span of time for observations.
20- Passes less than a degree from the +4th magnitude star Phi Persei and into the constellation Perseus.
March
1- May drop below naked eye visibility.
2- Crosses into the constellation Cassiopeia.
5- The Moon reaches Full phase, hampering observations.
11- Passes less than one degree from the +5 magnitude Owl Cluster.
16- Passes less than one degree from the 2.6 magnitude star Delta Cassiopeiae (Ruchbah).
20- The Moon reaches New, marking a favorable time for observation.
From there, Comet Q2 Lovejoy drops back below +10th magnitude and passes just a degree from the north celestial pole in late May as it heads back out of the inner solar system. Q2 Lovejoy was on a 13,500 year orbit inbound, and its passage through the inner solar system shortened its orbit by about 5,000 years. Just think, about 13 millennia ago, Mesolithic man was busy domesticating early farm animals. Did they, by chance, look up and catch sight of Comet Q2 Lovejoy? And who will be here to ponder its return passage eight millennia hence?
Comet hunting is fun and easy… we prefer to sweep the target area with our trusty Canon 15×45 image stabilized binoculars, though a common pair of 7x 50’s — often favored by hunters and bird watchers — will do just fine. The passage by +7.7 magnitude globular cluster M79 this week will provide a fine contrast in “fuzz balls…” Remember, in comets as in nebulae, the quoted magnitude is often dispersed over a broad surface area, making the objects fainter than a pinpoint star of the same brightness.
And Comet Q2 Lovejoy is the first of several binocular comets to look forward to in 2015. Right now, we’ve got our money on comets C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS, 19P/Borrelly, C/2013 US10 Catalina, and C/2013 X1 PanSTARRS as possible contenders in 2015. And don’t miss +9th magnitude Comet 15P/Finlay, currently in outburst and playing tag with the planet Mars low in the dusk sky.
Watch this space (bad pun intended) this coming Friday for the low down on all things astronomical in 2015!
-Got pics of Comet Q2 Lovejoy? Send ’em in to Universe Today.
Astronomy is all about thinking big, both in time and space.
The Earth turns on its axis, the Moon passes through its phases, and the planets come into opposition and solar conjunction on a routine basis.
Of course, on the other end of the spectrum, there are some events which traverse such colossal spans of time that the mere mortal life span of measly homo sapiens such as ourselves can never expect to cover them. Many comets have periods measured in centuries, or thousands of years. The axis of the Earth wobbles like a top, completing one turn every 26,000 years in what’s known as the Precession of the Equinoxes. Our solar system completes one revolution about the galactic center every quarter billion years…
Feeling puny yet? Sure, astronomy is also about humility. But among these stupendous cycles, there are some astronomical events that you just might be able to live through. One such instance is the orbits of double stars. And as 2015 approaches, we challenge you to see of the most famous white dwarf of them all, as it reaches a favorable viewing position over the next few years: Sirius B.
Sirius A and B in x-rays courtesy of Chandra. Credit: NASA/SAO/CXC.
Sirius itself is easy to find, as it’s the brightest star in Earth’s sky shining at magnitude -1.42. In fact, you can spot Sirius in the daytime sky if you know exactly where to look.
But it is one of the ultimate in cosmic ironies that the most conspicuous of stars in our sky also hosts such an elusive companion. The discovery of Sirius B awaited the invention of optics capable of resolving it next to its dazzling host. Alvan Clark Jr. and Sr. first spied the enigmatic companion on January 31st, 1862 while testing their newly constructed 18.5 inch refractor, which was the largest at the time. The discovery was soon verified from the Harvard College Observatory, adding Sirius A and B to the growing list of multiple stars.
A 19th century refractor similar to the one used to discover Sirius B. Photo by the author.
And what a strange companion it turned out to be. Today, we know that Sirius B is a white dwarf, the cooling dense ember of a main sequence star at the end of its life. We call the matter in such a star degenerate, not as a commentary on its moral stature, but the state the electrons and the closely packed nuclei within under extreme pressure. Our Sun will share the same ultimate fate as Sirius B, about six billion years from now.
A comparison of a white dwarf (center) and our Sun (right) Credit: RJHall/Wikimedia Commons.
The challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to spot Sirius B in the glare of its host. The contrast in brightness between the pair is daunting: shining at magnitude +11, the B companion is more than 63,000 times fainter than -1.46 magnitude Sirius A.
The changing position angle of Sirius B. Note that the graphic is inverted, with north at the bottom. Created by the author.
A feat of visual athletics, indeed. Still, Sirius B breaks 10” in separation from its primary in 2015, as it heads towards apastron — its most distant point from its primary, at just over 11” in separation — in 2019. Sirius B varies from 8.2 and 31.5 AUs from its primary. Sirius B is on a 50.1 year orbit, meaning the time to cross this one off of your life list is over the upcoming decade. Perhaps making an animation showing the motion of Sirius B from 2015-2025 would present a supreme challenge as well.
Sirius culminates at local midnight right around New Year’s Eve, shining at its highest to the south as the “ball drops” ushering in 2015. Of course, this is only a fortuitous circumstance that is possible in our current epoch, and precession and the proper motions of both Sirius and Sol will make this less so millennia hence.
Sirius crossing the meridian at local midnight on New Year’s Eve. Credit: Stellarium.
Newsflash: there’s a very special visual treat in the offing next week, as comet C/2014 Q2 Lovejoy is currently hovering around +6th magnitude and passes 19 degrees south of Sirius on Christmas Day… more to come!
Magnification and good seeing are your friends in the hunt for Sirius B. Two factors describe the position of a secondary star in a binary pair: its position angle in degrees, and separation in arc seconds. When it comes to stars that are a tough split, I find its better to estimate the position angle first before looking it up. A close match can often confirm the observation. Does a friend see the same thing at the eyepiece? A good star to “warm up” on is the +6.8 magnitude companion to Rigel in the foot of Orion, with a separation of 9”.
Nudging Sirius just out of view might allow the B companion to become apparent. Another nifty star-spliting tool is what’s known as an occulting bar eyepiece. Making an occultation bar eyepiece is easy: we’ve used everything from a small strip of foil to a piece of guitar string (heavy E gauge works nicely) for the central bar. An occulting bar eyepiece is also handy for hunting down the moons of Mars near opposition.
Sirius B also works its way into cultural myths and lore, not the least of which are the curious tales of the Dogon people of Mali. At the outset, it seems that these ancient people have knowledge of a small dense hidden companion star to Sirius, knowledge that requires modern technology to reproduce. Carl Sagan noted, however, that cultural contamination may have resulted in the late 19th century discovery of Sirius B making its way into the Dogon pantheon. The science of anthropology is rife with anecdotes that have been carefully fed to credulous anthropologists only to be reported later as fact, all in the name of a good story.
A comparison of Sirius B’s real versus apparent trajectory. Credit: SiriusB/Wikimedia Commons.
All amazing things to ponder as you begin your 2015 quest for Sirius B, a bashful but fascinating star.
UPDATE: Tune in this Sunday as the good folks over at the Virtual Telescope Project feature a live webcast covering the Geminid meteor shower this Sunday on December 14th at 2:00 UT.
This weekend presents a good reason to brave the cold, as the Geminid meteor shower peaks on the morning of Sunday, December 14th. The Geminids are dependable, with a broad peak spanning several days, and would be as well known as their summer cousins the Perseids, were it not for the fact that they transpire in the dead of northern hemisphere winter.
But do not despair. While some meteor showers are so ephemeral as to be considered all but mythical in the minds of most meteor shower observers, the Geminids always deliver. We most recently caught a memorable display of the Geminids in 2012 from a dark sky locale in western North Carolina. Several meteors per minute pierced the Appalachian night, offering up one of the most memorable displays by this or any meteor shower in recent years.
The Geminids are worth courting frostbite for, that’s for sure. But there’s a curious history behind this shower and our understanding of meteor showers in general, one that demonstrates the refusal of some bodies in our solar system to “act right” and fit into neat scientific paradigms.
A composite of the 2013 Geminids. Credit: the UK Meteor Observation Network
It wasn’t all that long ago that meteor showers — let alone meteorites — were not considered to be astronomical in origin at all. Indeed, the term meteor and meteorology have the same Greek root meaning “of the sky,” suggesting ideas of an atmospheric origin. Lightning, hail, meteors, you can kind of see how they got there.
In fact, you could actually face ridicule for suggesting that meteors had an extraterrestrial source back in the day. President Thomas Jefferson was said to have done just that concerning an opinion espoused by Benjamin Silliman of a December 14th, 1807, meteorite fall in Connecticut, leading to the apocryphal and politically-tinged response attributed to the president that, “I would more easily believe that two Yankee professors would lie, than that stones would fall from heaven.”
Indeed, no sooner than The French Academy of Sciences considered the matter settled earlier in the same decade, then a famous meteorite fall occurred in Normandy on April 26th, 1803,… right on their doorstep. The universe, it seemed, was thumbing its nose at scientific enlightenment.
Things really heated up with the spectacular display known as the Leonid meteor storm in 1833. On that November morning, stars seemed to fall like snowflakes from the sky. You can imagine the sight, as the Earth plowed headlong into the meteor stream. The visual effect of such a storm looks like the starship Enterprise plunging ahead at warp speed with stars streaming by, as if imploring humanity to get hip to the fact that meteor showers and their radiants are indeed a reality.
Still, a key problem persisted that gave ammunition to the naysayers: no new “space rocks” were found littering the ground at sunrise after a meteor shower. We now know that this is because meteor showers hail from wispy cometary debris left along intersections of the Earth’s orbit. Meteorite Man Geoff Notkin once mentioned to us that no meteorite fall has ever been linked to a meteor shower, though he does get lots of calls around Geminid season.
The name of the game in the 19th century soon became identifying new meteor showers. Streams evolve over time as they interact with planets (mostly Jupiter), and the 19th century played host to some epic meteor storms such as the Andromedids that have since been reduced to a trickle.
The Geminids are, however, the black sheep of the periodic meteor shower family. The shower was first noticed by US and UK observers in 1862, and by the 1870s astronomers realized that a new minor shower with a Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) hovering around 15 was occurring near the middle of December from the constellation Gemini.
The source of the Geminids, however, was to remain a mystery right up until the late 20th century.
In the late 1940s, astronomer Fred Whipple completed the Harvard Meteor Project, which utilized a photographic survey that piqued the interest of astronomers worldwide: debris in the Geminid stream appeared to have an orbital period of just 1.65 years, coupled with a high orbital inclination. Modeling suggested that the parent body was most likely a short period comet, and that the stream had undergone repeated perturbations courtesy of Earth and Jupiter.
In 1983, the culprit was found, only to result in a deeper mystery. The Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) discovered an asteroid fitting the bill crossing the constellation Draco. Backup observations from the Palomar observatory the next evening cinched the discovery, and today, we recognize the source of the Geminids as not a comet — as is the case with every other major meteor shower — but asteroid 3200 Phaethon, a 5 kilometre diameter rock in a 524 day orbit.
Asteroid 3200 Phaethon (arrowed) imaged by Marco Langbroek from the Winer Observatory in Sonita, Arizona. Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
So why doesn’t this asteroid behave like one? Is 3200 Phaethon a rogue comet that has long since settled down for the quiet space rock life? Obviously, 3200 Phaethon has lots of material shedding off from its surface, as evidenced by the higher than normal ratio of fireballs seen during the Geminid meteors. 3200 Phaethon also passes 0.14 AUs from the Sun — 47% closer than Mercury — and has the closest perihelion of any known asteroid to the Sun, which bakes the asteroid periodically with every close pass.
One thing is for certain: activity linked to the Geminid meteor stream is increasing. The Geminids actually surpassed the Perseids in terms of dependability and output since the 1960s, and have produced an annual peak ZHR of well over 100 in recent years. In 2014, expect a ZHR approaching 130 per hour as seen from a good dark sky site just after midnight local on the morning of December 14th as the radiant rides high in the sky. Remember, this shower has a broad peak, and it’s worth starting your vigil on Saturday or even Friday morning. The Geminid radiant also has a steep enough declination that local activity can start before midnight… also exceptional among meteor showers. This year, the 52% illuminated Moon rises around midnight local on the morning of December 14th.
The Geminid radiant looking to the northeast at 11PM local. Note the radiant of the December 22nd Ursids is also nearby. Credit: Stellarium.
And there’s another reason to keep an eye on the 2014 Geminids. 3200 Phaethon passed 0.12 AU (18 million kilometers) from Earth on December 10th, 2007, which boosted displays in the years after. And just three years from now, the asteroid will pass even closer on December 10th, 2017, at just 0.07 AUs (10.3 million kilometers) from Earth…
Are we due for some enhanced activity from the Geminids in the coming years?
All good reasons to bundle up and watch for the “Tears of the Twins” this coming weekend, and wonder at the bizzaro nature of the shower’s progenitor.
An Ariane 5 heads spaceward. Credit: Ariane.tv screenshot.
A new generation of space rockets ready to lift new and exciting payloads spaceward is coming to a sky near you.
Tomorrow, a Delta IV Heavy rocket will boost the Orion space capsule on a two orbit journey around the Earth that will test key systems. And though tomorrow’s launch is uncrewed, the Orion Command Module will one day form the core of NASA’s Orion MPCV Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and is slated to care out humanity’s first mission to an asteroid and beyond in the next decade.
But a second, lesser known launch also leaves Earth tomorrow as well, atop a rocket that will soon give way to a new generation of lift boosters as launch services vie for new customers. Just over eight hours after the launch of EFT-1, an Ariane 5 rocket lifts off from French Guiana with GSAT-16.
The EFT-1 Delta IV Heavy posed for roll out. Credit: Jason Major. @JPMajor
Is the ‘battle of the boosters’ heating up?
This comes after the December 2nd announcement earlier this week by participating members of the European Space Agency to proceed with the development of the next generation Ariane 6 rocket. Also included in the 5.9 billion Euro (7.3 billion USD) budget proposal is funding for the 2018 ExoMars mission, along with further support of ESA’s International Space Station commitments.
To date, ESA has fielded five of its Automated Transfer cargo Vehicles (ATVs) on missions to the International Space Station. ESA will also design the Service Module segment of the Orion MPCV.
“I can summarize this ministerial council by say it was a success… I’d even go so far as to say that it is a great success,” said Jean-Jacques Dordain, the director-general of the European Space Agency.
The Ariane 6 is expected to be on the launch pad by 2020, and will feature two variants capable of placing 5 to 11 tonnes in a geostationary transfer orbit. The solid fuel booster to be incorporated will be based on the Vega rocket design, while the upper stage Vinci engine is already currently in development.
A look at the Ariane 6 rocket. Credit Wikimedia Commons, SkywalkerPL.
The design has been hotly contested among European Space Agency members, many of whom are in favor of other variants based on the upgraded Ariane 5. Some of the largest rockets of all time included those developed by NPO Energia, capable of lofting 100,000 kilograms into low Earth orbit. An Energia N1 Moon rocket exploded on the pad on July 3rd 1969, effectively ending the Soviet Union’s bid to put a man on the Moon. In comparison, the massive Saturn V rocket — thus far, the largest and most powerful ever fielded by the United States — could deploy the equivalent of 118,000 kg to low Earth orbit and 47,000 kg to a Trans-Lunar Insertion orbit around the Moon.
But that’s just the beginning. Though the Orion capsule will ride atop a United Launch Services Delta IV Heavy tomorrow — a system usually employed for launching clandestine spy satellites — NASA hopes to have its own Space Launch System (SLS) rocket sitting on the pad by the end of 2018. Boeing was awarded the contract for SLS earlier this year, and the system largely rose re-imagined from the ashes of the cancelled Constellation program. The SLS Block 1 is expected to have a lift capacity of 70,000 kg to LEO, while Boeing’s proposed SLS Block 2 variant would, if fielded, have the largest lift capacity of all time at 130,000 kg to LEO. Only the Long March 9 proposed by China approaches that lofty goal.
An artist’s concept of Orion headed towards deep space. Credit: NASA.
And the wild card is Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Already in the game of sending cargo via its Dragon spacecraft to the ISS, SpaceX is developing a reputation for dependability when it comes to getting satellites into orbit at relatively low cost. SpaceX hopes to field its Falcon 9 Heavy with a lift capacity of 53,000 kg to LEO sometime in 2015, and many proposed missions are banking on the the Falcon 9 Heavy as a future service provider for solar system exploration. Certainly, with the recent failure of the Antares rocket on October 28th, SpaceX may look like the more attractive option to many, and the development of the Ariane 6 is expected to face stiff competition in the brave new world of high tech rocketry.
Ever wonder what all of these launch vehicles and spacecraft past and present look like stacked up against each other? There’s a graphic for that, recently featured on Io9:
A breakdown and comparison of spacecraft launch systems. Click to enlarge. Credit: Reddit user Heaney555.
From Almaz to Zarya, this is a fascinating study in scale comparison. Be sure to zoom in and check out the tiny ant-like crew compliment of each, also to scale. Of course, the backyard satellite-tracker in us can’t help be notice the brightness-versus size comparison for many of these. For example, the International Space Station on a good pass can appear as bright as Venus at -4th magnitude — and even look “TIE Fighter shaped” in binoculars — while the smaller Shenzhou and Soyuz modules are often barely visible as they pass overhead. And how we miss watching the Shuttle paired with the International Space Station as they both glided silently by:
But such orbital drama can still be caught if you know when and where to look for it. And speaking of which, viewers in western Australia and the southwestern United States may be able to see Orion and EFT-1 on its first lap around the Earth tomorrow before it fires its engines over the Atlantic headed for a 5,800 km apogee over southern Africa. Assuming EFT-1 lifts off at the beginning of its 159 minute launch window at 7:05 AM EST/12:05 UT, expect it to see it crossing dusk skies over western Australia at 55 minutes after liftoff, and dawn skies for the southwestern U.S. at 95 minutes post-launch respectively.
An awesome sight to behold indeed, marking the start of a brave new era of space exploration.
So what do you, the astute and space-minded reader of Universe Today think? Are the SLS and its kin the lift vehicle(s) of the future, or ‘rockets to nowhere?’ Will they survive the political winds that are bound to blow over the coming decade? Will the Ariane 6 best the Falcon 9 as the lift platform of choice?
One thing is for sure, expect coverage of space exploration drama and more to continue here at Universe Today!
