Asteroid Close Call Will Be a Gain for Science

Asteroid. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey Click to enlarge
A University of Michigan-led research team has discovered that for the first time in history, scientists will be able to observe how the Earth’s gravity will disrupt a massive asteroid’s spin.

Scientists predict a near-miss when Asteroid 99942 Apophis, also known as the 2029 meteor, passes Earth in 2029. An asteroid flies this close to the planet only once every 1,300 years. The chance to study it will help scientists deal with the object should it threaten collision with Earth.

Only about three Earth diameters will separate Apophis and Earth when the 400-meter asteroid hurtles by Earth’s gravity, which will twist the object into a complex wobbling rotation. Such an occurrence has never been witnessed but could yield important clues to the interior of the sphere, according to a paper entitled, “Abrupt alteration of the spin state of asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) during its 2029 Earth flyby,” accepted for publication in the journal Icarus.

The team of scientists is led by U-M’s Daniel Scheeres, associate professor of aerospace engineering, and includes U-M’s Peter Washabaugh, associate professor of aerospace engineering.

Apophis is one of more than 600 known potentially hazardous asteroids and one of several that scientists hope to study more closely. In Apophis’ case, additional measurements are necessary because the 2029 flyby could be followed by frequent close approaches thereafter, or even a collision.

Scheeres said not only is it the closest asteroid flyby ever predicted in advance, but it could provide a birds-eye view of the asteroid’s “belly.”

“In some sense it’s like a space science mission ‘for free’ in that something scientifically interesting will happen, it will be observable from Earth, and it can be predicted far in advance,” Scheeres said.

If NASA places measuring equipment on the asteroid’s surface, scientists could for the first time study an asteroid’s interior, similar to how geologists study earthquakes to gain understanding of the Earth’s core, Scheeres said. Because the torque caused by the Earth’s gravitational pull will cause surface and interior disruption to Apophis, scientists have a unique opportunity to observe its otherwise inaccessible mechanical properties, Scheeres said. Throwing the asteroid off balance could also affect its orbit and how close it comes to Earth in future years.

“Monitoring of this event telescopically and with devices placed on the asteroid’s surface could reveal the nature of its interior, and provide us insight into how to deal with it should it ever threaten collision,” Scheeres said.

The asteroid will be visible in the night sky of Europe, Africa and Western Asia.

The asteroid was discovered late last year and initially scientists gave it a 1-in-300 chance of hitting the Earth on April 13, 2029. Subsequent analysis of new and archived pre-discovery images showed that Apophis won’t collide with Earth that day, but that later in 2035, 2036, and 2037 there remains a 1-in-6,250 chance that the asteroid could hit Earth, Scheeres said. Conversely, that’s a 99.98 percent chance that the asteroid will miss Earth.

The asteroid is relatively small, about the length of three football fields. If it hit it wouldn’t create wide-scale damage to the Earth, but would cause major damage at the impact site, Scheeres said.

The team of scientists also includes Lance Benner and Steve Ostro of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Alessandro Rossi of ISTI-CNR, Italy, and Francesco Marzari of the University of Padova, Italy.

U-M University News Release

Triple Asteroid System Discovered

Orbits of twin moonlets around 87 Sylvia. Image credit: ESO Click to enlarge
One of the thousands of minor planets orbiting the Sun has been found to have its own mini planetary system. Astronomer Franck Marchis (University of California, Berkeley, USA) and his colleagues at the Observatoire de Paris (France) have discovered the first triple asteroid system – two small asteroids orbiting a larger one known since 1866 as 87 Sylvia.

“Since double asteroids seem to be common, people have been looking for multiple asteroid systems for a long time,” said Marchis. “I couldn’t believe we found one.”

The discovery was made with Yepun, one of ESO’s 8.2-m telescopes of the Very Large Telescope Array at Cerro Paranal (Chile), using the outstanding image’ sharpness provided by the adaptive optics NACO instrument. Via the observatory’s proven “Service Observing Mode”, Marchis and his colleagues were able to obtain sky images of many asteroids over a six-month period without actually having to travel to Chile.

One of these asteroids was 87 Sylvia, which was known to be double since 2001, from observations made by Mike Brown and Jean-Luc Margot with the Keck telescope. The astronomers used NACO to observe Sylvia on 27 occasions, over a two-month period. On each of the images, the known small companion was seen, allowing Marchis and his colleagues to precisely compute its orbit. But on 12 of the images, the astronomers also found a closer and smaller companion. 87 Sylvia is thus not double but triple!

Because 87 Sylvia was named after Rhea Sylvia, the mythical mother of the founders of Rome, Marchis proposed naming the twin moons after those founders: Romulus and Remus. The International Astronomical Union approved the names.

Sylvia’s moons are considerably smaller, orbiting in nearly circular orbits and in the same plane and direction. The closest and newly discovered moonlet, orbiting about 710 km from Sylvia, is Remus, a body only 7 km across and circling Sylvia every 33 hours. The second, Romulus, orbits at about 1360 km in 87.6 hours and measures about 18 km across.

The asteroid 87 Sylvia is one of the largest known from the asteroid main belt, and is located about 3.5 times further away from the Sun than the Earth, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. The wealth of details provided by the NACO images show that 87 Sylvia is shaped like a lumpy potato, measuring 380 x 260 x 230 km. It is spinning at a rapid rate, once every 5 hours and 11 minutes.

The observations of the moonlets’ orbits allow the astronomers to precisely calculate the mass and density of Sylvia. With a density only 20% higher than the density of water, it is likely composed of water ice and rubble from a primordial asteroid. “It could be up to 60 percent empty space,” said co-discoverer Daniel Hestroffer (Observatoire de Paris, France).

“It is most probably a “rubble-pile” asteroid”, Marchis added. These asteroids are loose aggregations of rock, presumably the result of a collision. Two asteroids smacked into each other and got disrupted. The new rubble-pile asteroid formed later by accumulation of large fragments while the moonlets are probably debris left over from the collision that were captured by the newly formed asteroid and eventually settled into orbits around it. “Because of the way they form, we expect to see more multiple asteroid systems like this.”

Marchis and his colleagues will report their discovery in the August 11 issue of the journal Nature, simultaneously with an announcement that day at the Asteroid Comet Meteor conference in Arma??o dos B?zios, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil.

Original Source: ESO News Release

Massive Asteroids Transformed the Earth’s Surface

Asteroid. Image credit: NEAR Click to enlarge
A cluster of at least three asteroids between 20 and 50 kilometres across colliding with Earth over 3.2 billion years ago caused a massive change in the structure and composition of the earth?s surface, according to new research by ANU earth scientists.

According to Dr Andrew Glikson and Mr John Vickers from the Department of Earth and Marine Sciences at ANU, the impact of these asteroids triggered major earthquakes, faulting, volcanic eruption and deep-seated magmatic activity and interrupted the evolution of parts of the Earth?s crust.

The research extends the original discovery of extraterrestrial impact deposits, discovered in South Africa by two US scientists, D.R. Lowe and G.R. Byerly, identifying their effects in the Pilbara region in Western Australia.

?Our findings are further evidence that the seismic aftershocks of these massive impacts resulted in the abrupt termination of an over 300 million years-long evolutionary stage dominated by basaltic volcanic activity and protracted accretion of granitic plutons,? Dr Glikson said.

The identification of impact ejecta ? materials ejected by the hitting asteroid ? is based on unique minerals and chemical and isotopic compositions indicative of extraterrestrial origin, including iridium anomalies.

The impact ejecta from the Barberton region in the eastern Transvaal indicate the formation of impact craters several hundred kilometres in diameter in oceanic regions of the earth, analogous to the lunar maria basins (large dark impressions on the surface of the moon). The seismic effects of the impacts included vertical block movements, exposure of deep-seated granites and onset of continental conditions on parts of the earth surface.

In the Pilbara, the formation of fault escarpments and fault troughs is represented by collapse of blocks up to 250-metres wide and 150-metres high, buried canyons and a major volcanic episode 3240 million years ago.

?The precise coincidence of the faulting and igneous activity with the impact deposits, coupled with the sharp break between basaltic crust and continental formations, throws a new light on the role of asteroid impacts in terrestrial evolution,? Dr Glikson said.

Preliminary indications suggest that at about the same time the Moon was also affected by asteroid impacts and by resurgent volcanic activity.

Dr Glikson and Mr Vickers will continue to investigate the extent and effects of large asteroid impacts by studying early terrains in other parts of the world, including India and Canada.

Original Source: ANU News Release

Why Are There Smooth Spots on Eros?

Asteroid 433 Eros taken by NEAR Shoemaker. Image credit: NASA. Click to enlarge
An asteroid’s external features, when analyzed carefully, can say a lot about its interior. So it was while he was mapping the surface of asteroid 433 Eros that Peter Thomas, a senior research associate in astronomy at Cornell University, found a simple solution to an earlier puzzle about the asteroid’s composition.

Thomas was using images collected by the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous mission in 2001 to create a digital map of Eros. On the asteroid’s surface, predictably pock-marked with thousands of craters accumulated from impacts over its lifetime, he saw a feature first noticed by Cornell graduate student Marc Berthoud: that a few particular patches were inexplicably smooth. That observation had led to various theories — but none that seemed completely satisfying.

In a letter appearing in the current issue of the journal Nature (Vol. 436, No. 7049, p. 366), Thomas and Northwestern University geologist Mark Robinson show that the asteroid’s smooth patches can be explained by a seismic disturbance that occurred when the crater, known as the Shoemaker crater, was formed.

The fact that seismic waves were carried through the center of the asteroid shows that the asteroid’s core is cohesive enough to transmit such waves, Thomas says. And the smoothing-out effect within a radius of up to 9 kilometers from the 7.6-kilometer Shoemaker crater — even on the opposite side of the asteroid — indicates that Eros’ surface is loose enough to get shaken down by the impact.

Asteroids are small, planetlike bodies that date back to the beginning of the solar system, so studying them can give astronomers insight into the solar system’s formation. And while no asteroids currently threaten Earth, knowing more about their composition could help prepare for a possible future encounter.

Eros, whose surface is a jumble of house-sized boulders and small stones (“what geologists call ‘poorly sorted,'” says Thomas), is the most carefully studied asteroid, in part because its orbit brings it close to earth.

Thomas and Robinson considered various theories for the regions of smoothness, including the idea that ejecta from another impact had blanketed the areas. But they rejected the ejecta hypothesis when calculations showed an impact Shoemaker’s size wouldn’t create enough material to cover the surface indicated. And even if it did, they add, the asteroid’s irregular shape and motion would cause the ejecta to be distributed differently.

In contrast, says Thomas, the shaking-down hypothesis fits the evidence neatly. “The classic light bulb goes on in your head,” he says; the crater density of small craters increases with the distance from the Shoemaker crater. “Simple geometry says something like a simple seismic wave.”

The NEAR mission, in which a NASA spacecraft landed on the asteroid’s surface in 2001 after orbiting it for a year, yielded more than 100,000 images of the small asteroid. (Eros is about 33 kilometers long, 13 kilometers wide and 8 kilometers thick). Since the mission’s conclusion 16 days after the landing, scientists from institutions around the world have been sorting through the data.

That process is expected to continue for years. “Careful mapping of things on the surface can give you a good clue as to what’s inside,” says Thomas. “And in one sense, we’ve barely begun.”

Original Source: Cornell University News Release

Earth Formed from Melted Asteroids

The image above is a false color view of the asteroid 951 Gaspra taken by the Galileo spacecraft. Image credit: NASA/JPL. Click to enlarge.
Important new research documenting how the Earth formed from melted asteroids 4.5 billion years ago is published in the 16 June issue of Nature. The paper was written by Dr Richard Greenwood and Dr Ian Franchi of the Open University?s Planetary and Space Sciences Research Institute (PSSRI).

“This research is important, Dr Greenwood says, ?because it demonstrates that events and processes on asteroids during the birth of the Solar System determined the present-day composition of our Earth.”

Immediately following the formation of our Solar System 4.5 billion years ago, small planetary bodies formed, with some melting to produce volcanic and related rocks. The OU researchers analysed meteorites to see how processes on asteroids may have contributed to the formation of Earth.

In their paper ?Widespread magma oceans on asteroidal bodies in the early Solar System? Drs Greenwood and Franchi show that some asteroids experienced large-scale melting, with the formation of deep magma oceans. Such melted asteroids would have become layered with lighter rock forming near the surface, while denser rocks were deeper in the interior. Since large bodies, such as Earth, grew by incorporation of many such smaller bodies these important results shed new light on the processes involved in building planets.

The researchers suggest that in the chaotic, impact-rich environment of the early Solar System, significant amounts of the outer layers of these melted asteroids would have been removed prior to becoming part of the growing Earth. This process is a better explanation for the composition of the Earth than earlier theories which called for large amounts of light elements in the Earth?s dense core, or unknown precursor materials. The Open University researchers point to recent astronomical observations which show that these processes are also important in other planetary systems, such as that around the star Beta Pictoris.

Original Source: Open University Press Release

Podcast: Get Ready for Deep Impact

July 4th is Independence Day In the United States, and Americans typically enjoy their holiday with a few fireworks. But up in space, 133 million kilometres away, there’s going to be an even more spectacular show… Deep Impact. On July 4th, a washing machine-sized spacecraft is going to smash into Comet Tempel 1, carve out a crater, and eject tonnes of ice and rock into space. The flyby spacecraft will watch the collision from a safe distance, and send us the most spectacular pictures ever taken of a comet – and its fresh bruise. Dr. Lucy McFadden is on the science team for Deep Impact, and speaks to me from the University of Maryland.
Continue reading “Podcast: Get Ready for Deep Impact”

Podcast: Homing Beacon for an Asteroid

Asteroids have been roughing up the Earth since it formed 4.6 billion years ago. Hundreds of thousands of potentially devastating asteroids are still out there, and whizzing past our planet all the time. Eventually, inevitably, one is going to score a direct hit and cause catastrophic damage. But what if we could get a better idea of where all these asteroids are or even learn to shift their orbits? Dr Edward Lu is a NASA astronaut, and a member of the B612 Foundation – an organization raising awareness about the threat of these asteroids and some potential solutions.
Continue reading “Podcast: Homing Beacon for an Asteroid”

Asteroid Will Zip Past the Earth in 2029

The orbits of Earth and asteroid 2004mn4. Image credit: NASA/JPL. Click to enlarge.
Friday the 13th is supposed to be an unlucky day, the sort of day you trip on your shoe laces or lose your wallet or get bad news.

But maybe it’s not so bad. Consider this: On April 13th–Friday the 13th–2029, millions of people are going to go outside, look up and marvel at their good luck. A point of light will be gliding across the sky, faster than many satellites, brighter than most stars.

What’s so lucky about that? It’s asteroid 2004 MN4 … not hitting Earth.

For a while astronomers thought it might. On Christmas Eve 2004, Paul Chodas, Steve Chesley and Don Yeomans at NASA’s Near Earth Object Program office calculated a 1-in-60 chance that 2003 qq47 would collide with Earth. Impact date: April 13, 2029.

The asteroid is about 320 meters wide. “That’s big enough to punch through Earth’s atmosphere,” devastating a region the size of, say, Texas, if it hit land, or causing widespread tsunamis if it hit ocean, says Chodas. So much for holiday cheer.

Asteroid 2004 MN4, also known as the 2029 meteor, had been discovered in June 2004, lost, then discovered again six months later. With such sparse tracking data it was difficult to say, precisely, where the asteroid would go. A collision with Earth was theoretically possible. “We weren’t too worried,” Chodas says, “but the odds were disturbing.”

This is typical, by the way, of newly-discovered asteroids. Step 1: An asteroid is discovered. Step 2: Uncertain orbits are calculated from spotty tracking data. Step 3: Possible Earth impacts are noted. Step 4: Astronomers watch the asteroid for a while, then realize that it’s going to miss our planet.

Killer Asteroid! headlines generally appear between steps 3 and 4, but that’s another story.

Astronomers knew 2004 MN4 would miss Earth when they found pictures of the 2029 asteroid taken, unwittingly, in March 2004, three months before its official discovery. The extra data ruled out a collision in 2029.

Instead, what we’re going to have is an eye-popping close encounter:

On April 13, 2029, asteroid 2004 MN4 will fly past Earth only 18,600 miles (30,000 km) above the ground. For comparison, geosynchronous satellites orbit at 22,300 miles (36,000 km). “At closest approach, the asteroid will shine like a 3rd magnitude star, visible to the unaided eye from Africa, Europe and Asia–even through city lights,” says Jon Giorgini of JPL. This is rare. “Close approaches by objects as large as 2004 MN4 are currently thought to occur at 1000-year intervals, on average.”

The asteroid’s trajectory will bend approximately 28 degrees during the encounter, “a result of Earth’s gravitational pull,” explains Giorgini. What happens next is uncertain. Some newspapers have stated that the asteroid might swing around and hit Earth after all in 2035 or so, but Giorgini discounts that: “Our ability to ‘see’ where 2004 MN4 will go (by extrapolating its orbit) is so blurred out by the 2029 Earth encounter, it can’t even be said for certain what side of the sun 2004 MN4 will be on in 2035. Talk of Earth encounters in 2035 is premature.”

In January 2004, a team of astronomers led by Lance Benner of JPL pinged 2004 MN4 using the giant Arecibo radar in Puerto Rico. (Coincidentally, the Arecibo dish is about the same size as the asteroid.) Echoes revealed the asteroid’s precise distance and velocity, “allowing us to calculate the details of the 2029 flyby,” says Giorgini, who was a member of the team along with Benner, Mike Nolan (NAIC) and Steve Ostro (JPL).

More data are needed to forecast 2004 MN4’s motion beyond 2029. “The next good opportunities are in 2013 and 2021,” Giorgini says. The asteroid will be about 9 million miles (14 million km) from Earth, invisible to the naked eye, but close enough for radar studies. “If we get radar ranging in 2013, we should be able to predict the location of 2004 MN4 out to at least 2070.”

The closest encounter of all, Friday the 13th, 2029, will be a spectacular opportunity to explore this asteroid via radar. During this encounter, says Giorgini, “radar could detect the distortion of 2004 MN4’s shape and spin as it passes through Earth’s gravity field. How the asteroid changes (or not) would provide information about its internal structure and material composition.” Beautifully-detailed surface maps are possible, too.

The view through an optical telescope won’t be so impressive. The asteroid’s maximum angular diameter is only 2 to 4 arcseconds, which means it will be a starlike point of light in all but the very largest telescopes.

But to the naked eye–wow! No one in recorded history has ever seen an asteroid in space so bright.

Friday the 13th might not be so bad after all.

Original Source: Science@NASA

Spitzer Sees an Alien Asteroid Belt

NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope has spotted what may be the dusty spray of asteroids banging together in a belt that orbits a star like our Sun. The discovery offers astronomers a rare glimpse at a distant star system that resembles our home, and may represent a significant step toward learning if and where other Earths form.

“Asteroids are the leftover building blocks of rocky planets like Earth,” said Dr. Charles Beichman of the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif. Beichman is lead author of a paper that will appear in the Astrophysical Journal. “We can’t directly see other terrestrial planets, but now we can study their dusty fossils.”

Asteroid belts are the junkyards of planetary systems. They are littered with the rocky scraps of failed planets, which occasionally crash into each other, kicking up plumes of dust. In our own solar system, asteroids have collided with Earth, the moon and other planets.

If confirmed, the new asteroid belt would be the first detected around a star about the same age and size as our Sun. The star, called HD69830, is located 41 light-years away from Earth. There are two other known distant asteroid belts, but they circle younger, more massive stars.

While this new belt is the closest known match to our own, it is not a perfect twin. It is thicker than our asteroid belt, with 25 times as much material. If our solar system had a belt this dense, its dust would light up the night skies as a brilliant band.

The alien belt is also much closer to its star. Our asteroid belt lies between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter, whereas this one is located inside an orbit equivalent to that of Venus.

Yet, the two belts may have one important trait in common. In our solar system, Jupiter acts as an outer wall to the asteroid belt, shepherding its debris into a series of bands. Similarly, an unseen planet the size of Saturn or smaller may be marshalling this star’s rubble.

One of NASA’s future planet-hunting missions, SIM PlanetQuest, may ultimately identify such a planet orbiting HD 69830. The mission, which will detect planets as small as a few Earth masses, is scheduled to launch in 2011.

Beichman and colleagues used Spitzer’s infrared spectrograph to observe 85 Sun-like stars. Only HD 69830 was found to possibly host an asteroid belt. They did not see the asteroids themselves, but detected a thick disk of warm dust confined to the inner portion of the star system. The dust most likely came from an asteroid belt in which dusty smash-ups occur relatively frequently, about every 1,000 years.

“Because this belt has more asteroids than ours, collisions are larger and more frequent, which is why Spitzer could detect the belt,” said Dr. George Rieke, University of Arizona, Tucson, co-author of the paper. “Our present-day solar system is a quieter place, with impacts of the scale that killed the dinosaurs occurring only every 100 million years or so.”

To confirm that the dust detected by Spitzer is indeed ground-up asteroids, a second less-likely theory will have to be ruled out. According to the astronomers, it is possible a giant comet, almost as big as Pluto, got knocked into the inner solar system and is slowly boiling away, leaving a trail of dust. This hypothesis came about when the astronomers discovered the dust around the star consists of small silicate crystals like those found in comet Hale-Bopp. One of these crystals is the bright green-colored gem called forsterite.

“The ‘super comet’ theory is more of a long shot,” Beichman said, “but we’ll know soon enough.” Future observations of the star using Spitzer and ground-based telescopes are expected to conclude whether asteroids or comets are the source of the dust.

Other authors of this study include G. Bryden, T. Gautier, K. Stapelfeldt and M. Werner of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.; and K. Misselt, J. Stansberry and D. Trilling of the University of Arizona.

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the Spitzer Space Telescope mission for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, Washington. Science operations are conducted at the Spitzer Science Center, at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. Caltech manages JPL for NASA. Spitzer’s infrared spectrograph was built by Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. Its development was led by Dr. Jim Houck of Cornell.

For artist’s concepts and more information, visit: www.spitzer.caltech.edu/spitzer.

Original Source: Spitzer News Release

Torino Scale Revised

Astronomers led by an MIT professor have revised the scale used to assess the threat of asteroids and comets colliding with Earth to better communicate those risks with the public.

The overall goal is to provide easy-to-understand information to assuage concerns about a potential doomsday collision with our planet.

The Torino scale, a risk-assessment system similar to the Richter scale used for earthquakes, was adopted by a working group of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in 1999 at a meeting in Torino, Italy. On the scale, zero means virtually no chance of collision, while 10 means certain global catastrophe.

“The idea was to create a simple system conveying clear, consistent information about near-Earth objects [NEOs],” or asteroids and comets that appear to be heading toward the planet, said Richard Binzel, a professor in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences and the creator of the scale.

Some critics, however, said that the original Torino scale was actually scaring people, “the opposite of what was intended,” said Binzel. Hence the revisions.

“For a newly discovered NEO, the revised scale still ranks the impact hazard from 0 to 10, and the calculations that determine the hazard level are still exactly the same,” Binzel said. The difference is that the wording for each category now better describes the attention or response merited for each.

For example, in the original scale NEOs of level 2-4 were described as “meriting concern.” The revised scale describes objects with those rankings as “meriting attention by astronomers”–not necessarily the public.

Equally important in the revisions, says Binzel, “is the emphasis on how continued tracking of an object is almost always likely to reduce the hazard level to 0, once sufficient data are obtained.” The general process of classifying NEO hazards is roughly analogous to hurricane forecasting. Predictions of a storm’s path are updated as more and more tracking data are collected.

According to Dr. Donald K. Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near Earth Object Program Office, “The revisions in the Torino Scale should go a long way toward assuring the public that while we cannot always immediately rule out Earth impacts for recently discovered near-Earth objects, additional observations will almost certainly allow us to do so.”

The highest Torino level ever given an asteroid was a 4 last December, with a 2 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2029. And after extended tracking of the asteroid’s orbit, it was reclassified to level 1, effectively removing any chance of collision, “the outcome emphasized by level 4 as being most likely,” Binzel said.

“It is just a matter of the scale becoming more well known and understood. Just as there is little or no reason for public concern over a magnitude 3 earthquake, there is little cause for public attention for NEO close encounters having low values on the Torino scale.” He notes that an object must reach level 8 on the scale before there is a certainty of an impact capable of causing even localized destruction.

The Torino scale was developed because astronomers are spotting more and more NEOs through projects like the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research project at MIT’s Lincoln Laboratory. “There’s no increase in the number of asteroids out there or how frequently they encounter our planet. What’s changed is our awareness of them,” Binzel notes.

As a result, astronomers debated whether they should keep potential NEO collisions secret or “be completely open with what we know when we know it,” Binzel said. The IAU working group, of which Binzel is secretary, resoundingly decided on the latter.

The revised wording of the scale was published last fall in a chapter of “Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids” (Cambridge University Press). The revisions were undertaken through consultation with astronomers worldwide for nearly a year before being published.

Binzel concludes that “the chance of something hitting the Earth and having a major impact is very unlikely. But although unlikely, it is still not impossible. The only way to be certain of no asteroid impacts in the forecast is to keep looking.”

For more information on the revised Torino scale go to: neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html.

Original Source: MIT News Release