Category: Military

[/caption]On Sunday, North Korea carried out its promise of launching a rocket carrying a satellite, as part of their peaceful space program. Naturally, this move has drawn massive international condemnation, prompting US President Barack Obama make a statement in Prague during his European tour. Japan has also reacted angrily, tightening sanctions against the state.

Although a rocket was launched, it was far from being a success, but it wasn’t a failure either. If the world were to listen to the official line coming out of Pyongyang, one would think Kim Jong-il has his first communications satellite in orbit, but the reality is a little more pedestrian. The Taepoding-2 rocket didn’t make it into space at all, and rather than orbiting the Earth, the communications satellite now rests at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. However, this is a worrying development, the missile had a successful first-staging, propelling the rocket over Japanese airspace, a technical success in itself…

“North Korea broke the rules, once again, by testing a rocket that could be used for long-range missiles,” President Obama said in Prague. “It creates instability in their region, around the world. This provocation underscores the need for action, not just this afternoon in the U.N. Security Council, but in our determination to prevent the spread of these weapons.”

The North Korean rocket launch may not have successfully put a satellite into orbit, but Pyongyang’s actions have certainly sent international politics into a spin. North Korea isn’t known for its subtlety when it comes to international relations, and when you have a state that is so secretive about its nuclear ambitions (we know they have the beginnings of a nuclear weapons program after the 2006 underground nuclear bomb test), it is little wonder surrounding nations will be getting tense. In this case, Japan bore the brunt of Pyongyang’s sabre rattling, saying that if Japanese forces intercepted the rocket, the North Korea army would strike “major targets” in the country.

Ahead of Sunday’s launch, the US and allies neighbouring North Korea warned that should the launch go ahead, there would be serious political and economic consequences. Unfortunately, Jong-il’s government didn’t budge and launched anyway. Apart from causing world-wide condemnation, did the rocket actually succeed? According to one expert, the Taepoding-2 rocket launch was a “partial success.”

“It says, first of all, they had successful first staging and (were) able to control the rocket through staging,” said retired General Henry Obering, former director of the US missile defense agency. “That is a significant step forward for any missile program because often times the missiles become unstable as they go through the staging events.”

Although the first stage of the rocket launch was a success, showing that North Korea is slowly improving their long-range missile capabilities, the rest of the stages failed, causing pieces of the rocket to fall into the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean.

In a post-launch statement however, the Korea Central News Agency quoted Kim Jong-il as saying “It is a striking demonstration of the might of our juche-oriented science and technology that our scientists and technicians developed both the multistage carrier rocket and the satellite with their own wisdom and technology . . . 100% and accurately put the satellite into orbit at one go.” Whether the statement actually came from Jong-il is open to debate, but the report is woefully wrong, the satellite didn’t come close to orbit.

Apart from the obvious propaganda, the launch will cause concern. The missile system is known to have an optimum range of 4200 miles, possibly with the ability to reach Hawaii and Alaska. Although the rocket failed and dropped into the Pacific, this episode clearly demonstrates the direction of North Korea’s technological advancements.

Source: Physorg, LA Times

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Some time between April 4th-8th, North Korea will launch a communications satellite into orbit. Unsurprisingly there is huge scepticism being voiced by Japan, South Korea and the United States that the secretive military nation is in fact carrying out a test-launch of the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile system, mounting a “peaceful” satellite to disguise its real intention. If the world’s suspicions are correct, if successful, North Korea will have a means to deliver a possible nuclear strike as far as Hawaii or Alaska. Now the North Korean army has warned that if the launch is interfered with, they will attack “major targets” in Japan.

Oh dear, it sounds like it’s going to be a rough few days in the west Pacific…

North Korea’s neighbour, Japan, has warned that should the rocket start to fall toward the nation, they will attempt to intercept it using anti-missile Aegis destroyers at sea and Patriot guided-missile units on the land. This is what appears to have riled the North Koreans, prompting the Korean People’s Army (KPA) to issue a sabre-rattling statement saying, “If Japan recklessly ‘intercepts’ the DPRK’s (North’s) satellite for peaceful purposes, the KPA will mercilessly deal deadly blows not only at the already deployed intercepting means but at major targets.”

Unfortunately, North Korea has not proven itself to be a particularly “open” nation, so there is huge doubt that one of the nations in the “Axis of Evil” (a phrase coined by George W. Bush in his State of the Union Address on January 29, 2002) is simply deploying a peaceful satellite. N. Korea has long been developing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, but any attempt by international inspectors to understand the scope of these claims have been unsuccessful. Also, previous rocket tests have provoked international outrage as they are seen as obvious attempts to intimidate neighbouring countries (principally Japan and South Korea) and demonstrated the nation is working on more sophisticated means to increase their military reach.

Tensions are understandably high ahead of the launch, and some sources suggest that could be as early as Saturday (April 4th) as there are indications that fuelling activities are being carried out by Pyongyang. Spy satellite images appear to show there is indeed a satellite attached to the rocket, but the US and regional allies are under no illusions that such a launch would also test ballistic missile technology, violating the UN resolution passed in 2006 in response to the underground nuclear test and repeated missile launches. North Korea can expect severe treatment by the international community should this launch go ahead.

The US and regional allies will push for more sanctions will be put into place, further damaging international relations with North Korea. However, having signed an international space exploration treaty, North Korea appears to be hoping China and Russia will block any sanctions after launch, even though the launch directly violates the UN resolution. Russia has even urged North Korea’s neighbours not to take military action against the rocket launch.

Like most actions threatened by Pyongyang, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens, but this is certainly a volatile situation…

Source: Space War

Images courtesy of of Analytical Graphics, Inc. (www.agi.com), where detailed analysis and visualization of the N. Korean launch.