Artist's conception of a gamma-ray pulsar. Gamma rays are shown in purple, and radio radiation in green. Credit: NASA/Fermi/Cruz de Wilde
Pulsars — those supernova leftovers that are incredibly dense and spin very fast — may change their speed due to activity of billions of vortices in the fluid beneath their surface, a new study says.
The work is based on a combination of research and modelling and looks at the Crab Nebula pulsar, which has periodic slowdowns in its rotation of at least 0.055 nanoseconds. Occasionally, the Crab and other pulsars see their spins speed up in an event called a “glitch”. Luckily for astronomers, there is a wealth of data on Crab because the Jodrell Bank Observatory in the United Kingdom looked at it almost daily for the last 29 years.
A glitch, the astronomers said in a statement, is “caused by the unpinning and displacement of vortices that connect the [pulsar’s] crust with the mixture of particles containing superfluid neutrons beneath the crust.”
“Surprisingly, no one tried to determine a lower limit to glitch size before. Many assumed that the smallest glitch would be caused by a single vortex unpinning. The smallest glitch is clearly much larger than we expected,” stated Danai Antonopoulou from the University of Amsterdam.
The astronomers added they will need more observations of other pulsars to better understand the results.
NASA astronaut Scott Kelly during Expedition 25 in 2010, floating with a bag of candy in the Unity node of the International Space Station. Credit: NASA
When planning for long-duration space travel, many people would think along the lines of not forgetting a towel or something of that nature. But we on Earth who are spoiled by the astounding pictures beamed from space must realize that even astronauts can get tired of looking at the same few walls for months at a time.
Scott Kelly is going to spend a year in space in 2015, and he highlighted boredom as one of the things he will need to fight against during his time on the International Space Station.
“There are things I will do a little bit differently with regards to pacing myself. You wouldn’t think this is true, but you do have to kind of stay entertained over that kind of period,” said Scott Kelly in a NASA interview late last week, which you can watch above.
“No matter how exciting that kind of things is, no matter how beautiful the Earth is, when you’re doing it for a year there is still the factor of trying to keep yourself engaged and interested.”
Kelly also highlighted some of the training challenges he will face being that he will be up there twice as long as the typical six-month space station mission. While it won’t take twice as long to do emergency training, he is required to do it with twice as many astronauts/cosmonauts because he will be working with four crews in space.
He also will train with two different Soyuz spacecraft commanders (which will add “complexity”, he noted) and have twice as much science to perform. That includes several “twin” studies where scientists will compare Kelly and his identical brother Mark, a four-time shuttle flyer who retired from the program in 2011.
Another lesson learned from his last six-month flight in 2010? “I know what I want to bring this time that I didn’t have last time,” Kelly said, although he didn’t elaborate on what those items are.
Kelly and Russian cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko will begin their mission just under one year from now.
SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket preparing for April 18, 2014 liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. Credit: Julian Leek
SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket preparing for April 14, 2014 liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. Credit: Julian Leek Watch the SpaceX Launch Live here – NASA TV link below[/caption]
Following closely on the heels of Thursday’s spectacular Atlas V rocket blastoff from Cape Canaveral and a last moment computer failure at the ISS over the weekend, an upgraded Space X Falcon 9 rocket is now poised to launch on Monday (April 14) and complete a double barreled salvo of liftoffs from the Florida Space Coast merely 4 days apart – if all goes well.
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying a Dragon resupply freighter is slated to launch on Monday at 4:58 p.m. EDT, 2058 GMT, from Launch Complex 40 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.
Update 4/14- 345 PM: Todays launch attempt scrubbed due to 1st stage Helium leak. Friday is earliest target date
This flight marks the third operational Dragon resupply mission to the 1 million pound International Space Station (ISS).
NASA TV live coverage will begin at 3:45 p.m. EDT and conclude at approximately 5:20 p.m.
Weather forecasters are predicting an 80 percent chance of favorable weather conditions at the scheduled liftoff time.
SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket preparing for April 14, 2014 liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. Credit: Julian Leek
Monday’s launch was temporarily put in doubt by the unexpected loss on Friday (April 11) of a backup computer command relay box called a multiplexer/demultiplexer (MDM) that resides in the station’s S0 truss.
The primary MDM continued to function normally.
The MDM’s provide commanding to the station’s external cooling system, Solar Alpha Rotary joints, Mobile Transporter rail car and insight into other truss systems.
It must function in order for the astronauts to use the robotic arm to grapple and berth the Dragon at a station docking port when it arrives on Wednesday, April 16, at about 7 a.m. EDT.
NASA managers held an extensive series of review meetings since Friday with ISS program managers, station partners, and SpaceX to exhaustively consider all possibilities and insure it was safe to fly the Dragon mission.
NASA gave the final go ahead after a readiness review this Sunday morning of managers, engineers and flight controllers.
ISS crew members will conduct a spacewalk to replace the failed MDM unit after the Dragon arrives.
This unmanned SpaceX mission dubbed CRS-3 mission will deliver some 5000 pounds of science experiments, a pair of hi tech legs for Robonaut 2, a high definition imaging camera suite, an optical communications experiment (OPALS) and essential gear, the VEGGIE lettuce growing experiment, spare parts, crew provisions, food, clothing and supplies to the six person crews living and working aboard the ISS soaring in low Earth orbit under NASA’s Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contract.
Robonaut 2 engineering model equipped with new legs like those heading to the ISS on upcoming SpaceX CRS-3 launch were on display at the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex on March 15, 2014. Credit: Ken Kremer – kenkremer.com
This launch has already been postponed twice since mid-March.
The original March 16 launch target was postponed 2 days before liftoff due to contamination issues with insulation blankets located inside the unpressurized trunk section of Dragon.
The second postponement from March 30 occurred when an electrical short knocked out the critical Air Force tracking required to insure a safe launch from the Eastern Range in case the rocket veers off course towards populated ares and has to be destroyed in a split second.
SpaceX is under contract to NASA to deliver 20,000 kg (44,000 pounds) of cargo to the ISS during a dozen Dragon cargo spacecraft flights over the next few years at a cost of about $1.6 Billion.
To date SpaceX has completed two operational cargo resupply missions and a test flight. The last flight dubbed CRS-2 blasted off a year ago on March 1, 2013 atop the initial version of the Falcon 9 rocket.
The Falcon 9 rocket with landing legs in SpaceX’s hangar at Cape Canaveral, Fl, preparing to launch Dragon to the space station this Sunday March 30. Credit: SpaceXAnother major goal for SpaceX with this launch involves the attachment of landing legs to the first stage of the firm’s next-generation Falcon 9 rocket that counts as a major first step towards a future goal of building a fully reusable rocket.
For this Falcon 9 flight, the rocket will sprout legs for a controlled soft landing in the Atlantic Ocean, guided by SpaceX engineers.
Eventually SpaceX will test land landings in a ramped up series of rocket tests
Stay tuned here for Ken’s continuing SpaceX, Orbital Sciences, commercial space, Orion, Chang’e-3, LADEE, Mars rover, MAVEN, MOM and more planetary and human spaceflight news.
Welcome, come in to the 349th Carnival of Space! The carnival is a community of space science and astronomy writers and bloggers, who submit their best work each week for your benefit. I’m Susie Murph, part of the team at Universe Today and now, on to this week’s stories!
Humans have an important connection to light, and a new public science exhibit being created for the International Year of Light 2015 will explore how light is inextricably tied to us as citizens of planet Earth, as members of our Galaxy, and as part of the cosmos. Learn more about the exhibit and the International Year of Light 2015 at the article here on the Astronomers Without Borders site.
“El Gordo,” Credit: NASA
Next, we’re off to the Chandra X-ray Telescope blog to look at one of the beautiful ways light can appear to us. This beautiful composite image of X-rays from Chandra and optical data from Hubble of the galaxy cluster ACT-CL J0102-4915, nicknamed “El Gordo,” is the most massive, the hottest, and gives off the most X-rays of any known galaxy cluster at its distance or beyond.
Beautiful images like “El Gordo” can inspire fantastic artwork, and Jim Plaxco from the ArtsNova blog shares his recent experiences judging some of this artwork from the National Space Society’s Roadmap to Space Settlement 2014 International Student Art Contest. The students had to create artwork referencing exploration, utilization and settlement of asteroids or the construction of orbital space settlements.
Speaking of beautiful artwork, Pamela Hoffman from Everyday Spacer enjoys the artwork in the This Year in Space 2014 calendar. Read more of her review and learn how you can still enjoy this artwork, even though the calendar is sold out, here.
Skydiver almost hit by meteorite? Probably just a rock.
Now, we can leave the confines of the ground, and look at some incredible skydiving footage that has had scientists and space fans buzzing all weekabout the possibility of a near-miss by a meteoroid. Nancy Atkinson at Universe Today was on top of this developing story all week, and has resolved the mystery of the Skydiver’s Rock. You can read the updated story here.
Well, the skydiver was still within the Earth’s atmosphere, but we’re heading out further – to our Moon. The Lunar and Planetary Institute has released over 600 documents related to the development, deployment, and operation of the Apollo Lunar Surface Experiment Package (ALSEP) on the lunar surface. You can find these documents and their descriptions here.
The Moon is also a source of superstition and hysteria this week, as David Dickinson from Universe Today reports. The gist of what’s got some folks wound up about the upcoming cycle of eclipses, beginning with the April 15th total lunar eclipse, is the first in series of four total eclipses spanning back-to-back years, known as a tetrad. It will also appear to turn blood-red in color. Read more here about why this doesn’t mean the end of the world, but it does mean you can take some amazing lunar eclipse photos!
Dec 21, 2010 Lunar Eclipse. Credit: Ken Kremer
The Spacewriter lets you know more about the lunar eclipse and how to observe it live on a 5 hour event from Slooh.com. They’ll have observations as well as commentary from their astronomers to narrate and give you a good view of the gorgeous event.
We go back out from Earth, to the International Space Station for Next Big Future‘s story about the new robotic legs being sent for NASA’s Robonaut 2. The legs will have a 9 foot extension, 7 flexible joints and grippers on the end to grab handholds and rails on the outside of the ISS.
We go away from Earth’s orbit to our closest planet to the sun – Mercury, for this story from Cosmoquest. The Messenger spacecraft has discovered evidence of a prolonged period of volcanic activity on Mercury.You can read more about this discovery and how you can help map Mercury here.
The next story is also from Cosmoquest. Radar images from the Cassini spacecraft have show similar formations on the surface of Titan to those seen in sand dunes in Namibia on earth. Check these fantastic formations out more here.
We head our to the center of the Milky Way Galaxy in this week on About.Com Space. Guest expert Carolyn Collins Petersen talks about how black holes grow in light of news about the cloud headed for the black hole at the heart of the Milky Way Galaxy.
Cometary Globule CG4. Credit: NASA
Even further out than that, the Brown Spaceman looks at one of the most interesting images, the Cometary Globule CG4. It almost looks like this is about to gobble up a galaxy. You can read more and see gorgeous images of this object here.
And now we change perspectives, to particle physics, as we return to Universe Today’s coverage of the discovery of a possible new exotic particle, the Z(4430), and we learn more about the experiments leading up to this discovery and possible implications of such a particle on our understanding of neutron stars.
That’s it for this week’s Carnival – it was a good week in space and science news! See you all next time!
And if you’re interested in looking back, here’s an archive to all the past Carnivals of Space. If you’ve got a space-related blog, you should really join the carnival. Just email an entry to [email protected], and the next host will link to it. It will help get awareness out there about your writing, help you meet others in the space community – and community is what blogging is all about. And if you really want to help out, sign up to be a host. Send an email to the above address.
NASA astronaut Greg Chamitoff during a 2011 spacewalk on the International Space Station. Reflected in his visor is NASA crewmate Mike Fincke. Both astronauts were mission specialists aboard shuttle mission STS-134. Credit: NASA
As contingency spacewalks go, the urgent task should be easy: a quick 2.5-hour run to swap out a failed backup computer that controls several systems on the International Space Station, including robotics. But NASA doesn’t want to go ahead with it until spare spacesuit parts arrive, in the aftermath of a life-threatening suit leak that took place last summer.
Those parts are on board the much-delayed SpaceX Dragon spacecraft sitting on a launch pad waiting for its next window to open. For this and other reasons, NASA decided to move ahead with the launch as planned Monday at 4:58 p.m. EDT (8:58 p.m. UTC). The spacewalk would take place April 22 — if Dragon gets there as planned on Wednesday.
“We need to get it [Dragon] on board as soon as we practically can,” said Mike Suffredini, the International Space Station’s program manager, in a phone briefing with reporters Sunday (April 13). That’s because Dragon is carrying a new spacesuit, components to fix an existing spacesuit, critical research experiments and food for the six crew members of Expedition 39.
The challenge, however, is making sure the station could be ready even if the primary multiplexer demultiplexer (MDM) fails before spacewalkers can make the backup replacement. There are more than a dozen MDMs on station, but each one controls different functions. This primary MDM not only controls a robotics mobile transporter, but also radiators and a joint to move the station’s solar arrays, among other things. The computer sits on the S0 truss on station, which you can view in the diagram below.
A diagram of the truss segments on the International Space Station. Click for a larger version. Screenshot of p. 3 of this PDF document: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/167129main_Systems.pdf. Credit: NASA
“The biggest driver for us is the positioning of the solar arrays as we look to the next failure,” Suffredini said. NASA needs to reposition the arrays when a vehicle approaches because plumes from the thrusters can put extra “loads” or electrical power on the system.
At the same time, enough power must flow to the station for it to operate. Luckily, the angle of the sun is such these days that the array can sit in the same spot for a while, at least two to three weeks, Suffredini said. NASA configured the station so that even if the primary computer fails, the array will automatically position correctly.
NASA also will move a mobile transporter on station today so that the station’s robotic arm is ready to grasp the Dragon when it arrives, meaning that even if the primary computer fails the transporter will be in the right spot. If Dragon is delayed again, the next launch opportunity is April 18 and the spacewalk would be pushed back.
Dragon’s precious payload of items includes several intended to make NASA spacewalks safer. The suit leak was due to contamination in the fan pump separator of Suit 3011 that plugged a tiny hole inside the water separation part of the unit. Water then escaped and got into the helmet, causing a near-emergency for Luca Parmitano — who was using the spacesuit in July.
European Space Agency astronaut Luca Parmitano on a spacewalk July 9, 2016 during Expedition 36. Here, Parmitano is riding the end of the robotic Canadarm2. Credit: NASA
NASA installed snorkels and absorbent helmet pads into its spacesuits while awaiting the results of an investigation, and also pushing back all nonessential spacewalks. The agency now has recommendations in hand and is addressing those with the hope of resuming non-contingency spacewalks this summer.
Today, Suffredini also provided an update on what the contamination was. “The anomaly was the result of contamination introduced by filters essentially used to clean and scrub the water loops for us,” he said.
“Those introduced large amounts of silica into the system, and that silica eventually coagulates in the area of the fan pump sep [separator] and after many uses, it eventually can build up to the point where it plugs the holes and you can’t separate the water from the air.”
The next spacewalk will use Suit 3011 (which got a new fan pump separator for contingency spacewalks in December) and Suit 3005, which will use the new separator on board Dragon. The cooling lines on spacesuits on board station have been purged with fresh water to reduce the silica buildup, and astronauts will use new filters that they know are clean.
Expedition 15’s Clay Anderson (on Canadarm2) and STS-118’s Rick Mastracchio (right) during an August 2007 maintenance spacewalk on the International Space Station. The NASA astronauts relocated an S-Band antenna subassembly, installed a new transponder and retrieved another transponder. Credit: NASA
If for some reason Suit 3005 can’t be used, Suffredini added, the new suit could be put in place instead after some testing to make sure it’s ready. “We’re in a very good posture for the EVA [extra-vehicular activity],” Suffredini said.
NASA hasn’t decided who will go on the spacewalks yet, he added. There are at least two or three spare MDMs on station; the one needed for this particular spacewalk is inside the U.S. Destiny laboratory, which is handily right next to the S0 truss and spacesuit worksite.
Of the “big 12” repair jobs the astronauts train for, the MDM replacement is among the easiest, Suffredini said, adding astronauts never encountered an external MDM failure on station before.
The last set of contingency spacewalks took place in December to replace a failed ammonia pump that affected science experiments on station. Expedition 39’s Rick Mastracchio was among the pair “outside” during those spacewalks.
We will keep you apprised as circumstances warrant.
A view of the International Space Station as seen by the last departing space shuttle crew, STS-135. Credit: NASA
NASA is preparing a contingency spacewalk to deal with a broken backup computer component on the International Space Station, the agency said in an update Saturday (April 12). While there’s no timeline yet for the spacewalk, the agency must consider carefully when to do it given a cargo ship is supposed to arrive at station on Wednesday.
The SpaceX Dragon spacecraft — already delayed due to an unrelated radar problem — is still scheduled to launch Monday at 4:58 p.m. EDT (8:58 p.m. UTC) to arrive at station two days later. Although the computer controls some robotic systems, NASA added the Canadarm2 that will grapple Dragon has other redundancies in place. The question is if the station itself has enough redundancy for the launch to go forward.
“A final decision on whether to launch Dragon Monday will not be made until another status meeting is conducted Sunday morning,” NASA stated.
The failure poses no risk to the crew and normal station operations are not affected, NASA emphasized. The failure was uncovered Friday “during a routine health check” of a box called EXT-2, which backs up a primary component that sits outside on the S0 truss (near the station’s center).
Expedition 39 commander Koichi Wakata performs maintenance on the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly on the International Space Station. Picture taken in April 2014. Credit: NASA
Earlier Saturday, a docked Progress robotic spacecraft boosted the station’s altitude in a planned maneuver to ready for the next Soyuz spacecraft launch, which will carry half of the Expedition 40 crew in May.
If spacewalks do go forward, this would be the second required contingency set required since Luca Parmitano experienced a life-threatening leak in a NASA spacesuit last July. NASA ordered an investigation, received a report in February and has halted all nonessential spacewalks while it addresses the recommendations. (Russian spacewalks in Orlan spacesuits are unaffected.)
The only NASA spacewalks that happened since summer took place in December, when an ammonia pump failure crippled science experiments on station. NASA’s Rick Mastracchio and his now returned-to-Earth crewmate Mike Hopkins performed two contingency spacewalks, successfully replacing the pump. The agency has snorkels and absorbent pads ready for its spacesuits as backup if another leak occurs.
The Expedition 39 crew on March 27, 2014 a few hours after the second half of the crew arrived on a Soyuz spacecraft. From left, Steve Swanson (NASA), Koichi Wakata (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency), Alexander Skvortsov (Roscomos), Rick Mastracchio (NASA), Mikhail Tyurin (Roscomos) and Oleg Artemyev (Roscosmos). Credit: NASA (YouTube/screenshot)
A backup computer that controls “some systems associated with robotics” on the International Space Station is not “responding to commands”, NASA said in a late-night statement Eastern time Friday (April 11).
The crew is safe, there’s no “immediate” change to space station operations, and because the primary computer is working, there’s also no alteration to the SpaceX Dragon launch to the station on Monday — which requires the robotic Canadarm2 for berthing. NASA added, however, that there are “further evaluations” going on, meaning the date could change depending on what controllers figure out.
If the computer does need to be replaced, crew members of Expedition 39 will need to do at least one spacewalk, the agency added. NASA is allowing contingency spacewalks in American spacesuits to go forward as the agency addresses problems raised in a report about a life-threatening spacesuit leak in July.
Below the jump is the statement NASA put out tonight concerning the situation.
The Mission Control team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston confirmed Friday night that a backup computer on the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS) called a Multiplexer-Demultiplexer (MDM) is not responding to commands. The station’s MDM computers control some systems associated with robotics aboard the space station.
The primary MDM operating aboard the space station is functioning normally and there is no immediate impact to space station operations. The computer outage does not pose a risk to the six crew members aboard the space station. ISS teams are assessing next steps to attempt to bring the computer back online or replace it.
Replacing the backup MDM, if needed, would require a spacewalk. The backup MDM would provide redundancy for robotic systems that will be needed to attach the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft currently scheduled to launch on Monday and rendezvous with the ISS on Wednesday. NASA is continuing to work toward a Monday launch of the SpaceX cargo resupply mission pending further evaluations by the ISS Program. The latest information will be available here at www.nasa.gov/station.
We will keep you apprised as the situation progresses.
Expedition 39’s crew portrait. Front row: commander Koichi Wakata (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) at right, and NASA astronaut Steve Swanson. Back row, left to right: Russian cosmonauts Oleg Artemyev, Alexander Skvortsov, Mikhail Tyurin and NASA astronaut Rick Mastracchio. Credit: NASA
Romaine lettuce grows inside a prototype "Veggie" pillow (NASA/Gioia Massa)
Freeze-dried bags of dehydrated “astronaut food” may seem like a fun novelty for school kids on Earth, but despite all the hard work that goes into providing the residents of the Space Station with nutritious and varied meal options there’s one thing that remains a rare and elusive commodity on astronauts’ menus: fresh produce.
Although fruit and vegetables do occasionally find their way aboard the ISS via resupply missions (to the delight of the crew) researchers are moving one step closer to actually having a vegetable garden in orbit. On Monday, April 14 Friday, April 18, NASA’s Veg-01 experiment will launch to the ISS aboard a SpaceX Dragon capsule to test the in-flight viability of an expandable plant growth chamber named “Veggie.”
In development for several years, Veggie is now getting its chance to be space-tested with the launch of the SpaceX-3 resupply mission. Veggie uses clear collapsible bellows as miniature greenhouses, inside which plant “pillows” can be cultivated with the aid of root-mats and a bank of LED lights.
Crops successfully grown in Veggie include lettuce, Swiss chard, radishes, Chinese cabbage and peas. (NASA)
Astronauts will see how well “Outredgeous” romaine lettuce fares in microgravity inside the Veg-01 experiment, and can also use the LED bank as a light source for other experiments.
“Veggie will provide a new resource for U.S. astronauts and researchers as we begin to develop the capabilities of growing fresh produce and other large plants on the space station,” said Gioia Massa, the NASA payload scientist for Veggie. “Determining food safety is one of our primary goals for this validation test.”
While other plant-growth experiments are currently aboard ISS, Veggie boasts the simplest design and largest growing area of any of them to date.
Veggie’s Teflon bellows is expandable to 11.5 inched wide by 14 inches deep. Credit: NASA/Bryan Onate
“Our hope is that even though VEGGIE is not a highly complex plant growth apparatus, it will allow the crew to rapidly grow vegetables using a fairly simple nutrient and water delivery approach.”
– Howard Levine, Ph.D. and chief scientist at Kennedy Space Center (2012)
In addition to providing fresh food, maintaining a miniature garden in orbit would be therapeutic for astronauts on long-duration missions.
“Based upon anecdotal evidence, crews report that having plants around was very comforting and helped them feel less out of touch with Earth,” Massa said. “You could also think of plants as pets. The crew just likes to nurture them.”
The Veggie system was developed for NASA by Orbital Technologies Corporation (ORBITEC) in Madison, Wisconsin, via a Small Business Innovative Research Program. Its innovations may eventually lead to better food production not only in space but also in limited-resource regions on Earth.
With the ultimate success of Veggie, ISS astronauts may soon find themselves floating in line at the in-house salad bar. (Watch out for those rogue croutons!)
A multiple frame picture of the rock falling, taken from a video taken during a skydive in 2012. Credit and copyright: Anders Helstrup, used by permission.
For all those involved with the initial investigation of the skydiver and the possible meteorite, they now feel they have resolution to their puzzle, thanks to the beauty of crowdsourcing. The rock that showed up in a video taken during a skydive in Norway in 2012 was likely just a rock — accidentally packed in the parachute — and not a meteoroid.
Steinar Midtskogen, from the Norwegian Meteor Network who was involved in the initial investigation of the video, suggested an adaptation of Linus’s Law to explain what has happened in the past week: “Given enough eyeballs, all mysteries are shallow.”
With all the comments, opinions and analysis following the release of the video last week, the team of scientists and video experts from Norway have conceded that the likelihood of the rock being a meteoroid is extremely low. After nearly two years of analyzing the video, the Norwegian team was unable to fully resolve the puzzle, and so they went public, hoping to get input from others.
“We were left with scenarios that we were unable to find possible solutions for against something that fits but is extremely improbable, though possible,” Midtskogen wrote on the NMN website. “We seemed to get no further, and we decided to go public with what we had and at the same time invite anyone to have a go at the puzzle. … We expressed our hope that it would go viral and scrutinized for something that we might have missed, and the result was beyond our expectations.”
The group welcomed all the input (and criticism) but were especially swayed by the ballistics analysis provided by NASA planetary scientist Dr. Phil Metzger, who posted his investigation on Facebook:
Here is my conclusion: the ballistics are consistent with it being a small piece of gravel that came out of his parachute pack and flew past at close distance. The ballistics are also consistent with it being a large meteorite that flew past at about 12 to 18 meters distance. It could be either one, but IMO not anything in between. Based on the odds of parachute packing debris (common) versus meteorite personal flybys (extremely rare), and based on the timing (right after he opened his parachute), I vote for the parachute debris as the more likely.
His three plots are below:
Ballistics analysis from Dr. Phil Metzger: The first one shows how the measured and predicted velocity agree only at the two different distances mentioned above. The second assumes it was parachute debris, and shows the velocity of the debris as a function of time after being released from his pack. the third shows the separation between the skydiver and the debris as a function of time. Note that the debris passes the skydiver at 12 seconds after the debris was released, which is the same amount of time in the video from when the drogue chute was opened until the debris passed the skydiver.
Metzger concluded the likely outcome is that a small piece of gravel about 3.3 cm in diameter flew by the camera by at about 30 meters per second, or 10 meters per second relative to the skydiver.
But while Metzter feels Occam’s razor favors parachute debris, he said his model only shows feasibility.
“I don’t consider it to be a smoking gun,” he told Universe Today. “There could be other, better scenarios.”
And so, Midtskogen told Universe Today, while the rock being a meteoroid isn’t completely ruled out, they feel the best answer is that it was a small rock embedded in the chute, and no further analysis is needed.
“I can confirm that the group will no longer do coordinated work on this,” Midtskogen said via email. “I think all of us feel confident about the conclusion and won’t work more on this individually either – although here I can only speak for myself. It was shown how a pebble packed in the chute could reappear well above the chute, and there is no strong evidence against a small size, so this has been easy to accept.”
While this rock ended up not likely to be a meteoroid, Midtskogen added, the crowdsourcing and interest in the video was overwhelming and encouraging.
“So, no meteorite, but a good story,” he said good-naturedly in his email to Universe Today. “Our mood is still good, and we talk about putting up a plaque at ground zero: “On 17th June 2012 a pebble fell here, witnessed by 6 million people on YouTube”.
Additionally, the skydiver, Anders Helstrup, seemed relieved more than anything.
“After all we seem to have found a more natural explanation to the video,” he told Universe Today. “And that is a good thing. I see that this had to have been MY mistake – packing a pebble into my parachute (I always pack myself). Our intention was to find out more and this way let the story out in the public, for people to make up their own minds. This became way bigger than I had imagined.”
In the end, while this story was not as fantastic as it might have been, it shows the beauty of crowdsourcing and using science to analyze a puzzle. And I readily admit to being overly enthusiastic in my initial article about this being a meteoroid, but I have to agree with Phil Plait who may have said it best in his update today: I would have loved to have this to have been a real meteoroid, but I’m glad this worked the way it did:
The video-makers were honest, did their level best to figure this out, and when they got as far as they could, they put it out to the public. And when it was shown to not be what they had hoped, they admitted it openly and clearly.
— Phil Plait
