Kepler Can Still Hunt For Earth-Sized Exoplanets, Researchers Suggest

Illustration of the Kepler spacecraft. Kepler's mission is over, but all of the exoplanets it found still need to be confirmed in follow-up observations. (NASA/Kepler mission/Wendy Stenzel)
Illustration of the Kepler spacecraft. Kepler's mission is over, but all of the exoplanets it found still need to be confirmed in follow-up observations. (NASA/Kepler mission/Wendy Stenzel)

Kepler may not be hanging up its planet-hunting hat just yet. Even though two of its four reaction wheels — which are crucial to long-duration observations of distant stars —  are no longer operating, it could still be able to seek out potentially-habitable exoplanets around smaller stars. In fact, in its new 2-wheel mode, Kepler might actually open up a whole new territory of exoplanet exploration looking for Earth-sized worlds orbiting white dwarfs.

An international team of scientists, led by Mukremin Kilic of the University of Oklahoma’s Department of Physics and Astronomy, are suggesting that NASA’s Kepler spacecraft should turn its gaze toward dim white dwarfs, rather than the brighter main-sequence stars it was previously observing.

“A large fraction of white dwarfs (WDs) may host planets in their habitable zones. These planets may provide our best chance to detect bio-markers on a transiting ex- oplanet, thanks to the diminished contrast ratio between the Earth-sized WD and its Earth-sized planets. The James Webb Space Telescope is capable of obtaining the first spectroscopic measurements of such planets, yet there are no known planets around WDs. Here we propose to take advantage of the unique capability of the Kepler space- craft in the 2-Wheels mode to perform a transit survey that is capable of identifying the first planets in the habitable zone of a WD.”

– Kilic et al.

Any bio-markers — such as molecular oxygen, O2 — could later be identified around such Earth-sized exoplanets by the JWST, they propose.

Will Kepler be able to find the first Earth-sized exoplanet orbiting a white dwarf? (Illustration of Kepler 22b. Credit: NASA/Ames/JPL-Caltech)
Will Kepler be able to find the first Earth-sized exoplanet — or even an exomoon — orbiting a white dwarf? (Illustration of Kepler 22b. Credit: NASA/Ames/JPL-Caltech)

Because Kepler’s precision has been greatly reduced by the failure of a second reaction wheel earlier this year, it cannot accurately aim at large stars for the long periods of time required to identify the minute dips in brightness caused by the silhouetted specks of passing planets. But since white dwarfs — the dim remains of stars like our Sun — are much smaller, any eclipsing exoplanets would make a much more pronounced effect on their apparent luminosity.

In effect, exoplanets ranging from Earth- to Jupiter-size orbiting white dwarfs as close as .03 AU — well within their habitable zones — would significantly block their light, making Kepler’s diminished aim not so much of an issue.

“Given the eclipse signature of Earth-size and larger planets around WDs, the systematic errors due to the pointing problems is not the limiting factor for WDHZ observations,” the team assures in their paper “Habitable Planets Around White Dwarfs: an Alternate Mission for the Kepler Spacecraft.”

Even smaller orbiting objects could potentially be spotted in this fashion, they add… perhaps even as small as the Moon.

The team is proposing a 200-day-long survey of 10,000 known white dwarfs within the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) area, and expects to find up to 100 exoplanet candidates as well as other “eclipsing short period stellar and sub-stellar companions.”

“If the history of exoplanet science has taught us anything, it is that planets are ubiquitous and they exist in the most unusual places, including very close to their host stars and even around pulsars… Currently there are no known planets around WDs, but we have never looked at a sufficient number of WDs at high cadence to find them through transit observations.”

– Kilic et al.

Read the team’s full report here, and learn more about the Kepler mission here.

NASA’s Ames Research Center made an open call for proposals regarding Kepler’s future operations on August 2. Today is the due date for submissions, which will undergo a review process until Nov. 1, 2013.

Added 9/4: For another take on this, check out Paul Gilster’s write-up on Centauri Dreams.

How Big is the Solar System?

How Big is the Solar System?

For most of us, stuck here on Earth, we see very little of the rest of the Solar System. Just the bright Sun during the day, the Moon and the planets at night. But in fact, we’re embedded in a huge Solar System that extends across a vast amount of space.

Which begs the question, just how big is the Solar System?

Before we can give a sense of scale, let’s consider the units of measurement.

Distances in space are so vast, regular meters and kilometers don’t cut it. Astronomers use a much larger measurement, called the astronomical unit. This is the average distance from the Earth to the Sun, or approximately 150 million kilometers.

Mercury is only 0.39 astronomical units from the Sun, while Jupiter orbits at a distance of 5.5 astronomical units. And Pluto is way out there at 39.2 astronomical units.

That’s the equivalent of 5.9 billion kilometers.

If you could drive your car at highway speeds, from the Sun all the way out to Pluto, it would take you more than 6,000 years to complete the trip.

But here’s the really amazing part. Our Solar System extends much, much farther than where the planets are.

The furthest dwarf planet, Eris, orbits within just a fraction of the larger Solar System.

The Kuiper Belt, where we find a Pluto, Eris, Makemake and Haumea, extends from 30 astronomical units all the way out to 50 AU, or 7.5 billion kilometers.

And we’re just getting started.

Artist's interpretation depicting the new view of the heliosphere. The heliosheath is filled with “magnetic bubbles” (shown in the red pattern) that fill out the region ahead of the heliopause. In this new view, the heliopause is not a continuous shield that separates the solar domain from the interstellar medium, but a porous membrane with fingers and indentations. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/CI Lab
Artist’s interpretation depicting the new view of the heliosphere. The heliosheath is filled with “magnetic bubbles” (shown in the red pattern) that fill out the region ahead of the heliopause. In this new view, the heliopause is not a continuous shield that separates the solar domain from the interstellar medium, but a porous membrane with fingers and indentations. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/CI Lab
Even further out, at about 80-200 AU is the termination shock. This is the point where the Sun’s solar wind, traveling outward at 400 kilometers per second collides with the interstellar medium – the background material of the galaxy. This material piles up into a comet-like tail that can extend 230 AU from the Sun.

But the true size of the Solar System is defined by the reach of its gravity; how far away an object can still be said to orbit the Sun.

The layout of the solar system, including the Oort Cloud, on a logarithmic scale. Credit: NASA
The layout of the solar system, including the Oort Cloud, on a logarithmic scale. Credit: NASA
In the furthest reaches of the Solar System is the Oort Cloud; a theorized cloud of icy objects that could orbit the Sun to a distance of 100,000 astronomical units, or 1.87 light-years away. Although we can’t see the Oort Cloud directly, the long-period comets that drop into the inner Solar System from time to time are thought to originate from this region.

The Sun’s gravity dominates local space out to a distance of about 2 light-years, or almost half the distance from the Sun to the nearest star: Proxima Centauri. Believe it or not, any object within this region would probably be orbiting the Sun, and be thought to be a part of the Solar System.

Back to our car analogy for a second. At those distances, it would take you 19 million years to complete the journey to the edge of the Solar System. Even NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft, the fastest object ever launched from Earth would need 37,000 years to make the trip.

So as you can see, our Solar System is a really really big place.

Big Bang’s Sound-Like Waves Show Up In Lab Simulation

Tracing back to the Big Bang. Image credit: Ivo Labbé
Tracing back to the Big Bang. Image credit: Ivo Labbé

An ultracold vacuum chamber ran a simulation of the early universe and came up with some interesting findings about how the environment looked shortly after the Big Bang occurred.

Specifically, the atoms clustered in patterns similar to the cosmic microwave background — believed to be the echo of the intense burst that formed the beginning of the universe. Scientists have mapped the CMB at progressively higher resolution using several telescopes, but this experiment is the first of its kind to show how structure evolved at the beginning of time as we understand it.

The Big Bang theory (not to be confused with the popular television show) is intended to describe the universe’s evolution. While many pundits say it shows how the universe came “from nothing”, the concordance cosmological model that describes the theory says nothing about where the universe came from. Instead, it focuses on applying two big physics models (general relativity and the standard model of particle physics). Read more about the Big Bang here.

CMB is, more simply stated, electromagnetic radiation that fills the Universe. Scientists believe it shows an echo of a time when the Universe was much smaller, hotter and denser, and filled to the brim with hydrogen plasma. The plasma and radiation surrounding it gradually cooled as the Universe grew bigger. (More information on the CMB is here.) At one time, the glow from the plasma was so dense that the Universe was opaque, but transparency increased as stable atoms formed. But the leftovers are still visible in the microwave range.

WMAP data of the Cosmic Microwave Background. Credit: NASA
WMAP data of the Cosmic Microwave Background. Credit: NASA

The new research used ultracold cesium atoms in a vacuum chamber at the University of Chicago. When the team cooled these atoms to a billionth of a degree above absolute zero (which is -459.67 degrees Fahrenheit, or -273.15 degrees Celsius), the structures they saw appeared very similar to the CMB.

By quenching the 10,000 atoms in the experiment to control how strongly the atoms interact with each other, they were able to generate a phenomenon that is, very roughly speaking, similar to how sound waves move in air.

“At this ultracold temperature, atoms get excited collectively,” stated Cheng Chin, a physics researcher at the University of Chicago who participated in the research. This phenomenon was first described by Russian physicist Andrei Sakharov, and is known as Sakharov acoustic oscillations.

So why is the experiment important? It allows us to more closely track what happened after the Big Bang.

Atom density is greater at left (the beginning of the experiment) than 80 milliseconds after the simulated Big Bang. Credit: Chen-Lung Hung
Atom density is greater at left (the beginning of the experiment) than 80 milliseconds after the simulated Big Bang. Credit: Chen-Lung Hung

The CMB is simply a frozen moment of time and is not evolving, requiring researchers to delve into the lab to figure out what is happening.

“In our simulation we can actually monitor the entire evolution of the Sakharov oscillations,” said Chen-Lung Hung, who led the research, earned his Ph.D. in 2011 at the University of Chicago, and is now at the California Institute of Technology.

Both Hung and Chin plan to do more work with the ultracold atoms. Future research directions could include things such as how black holes work, or how galaxies were formed.

You can read the published research online on Science‘s website.

Source: University of Chicago

Astrophoto: Aurora Dancing on the Water

An aurora seen in Norway on Aurora Borealis from September 2, 2013. Credit and copyright: Frank Olsen.

Aurora season must have started in Scandinavia! Frank Olsen just posted this fantastic shot of the Aurora Borealis dancing across the sky and reflecting on the water in Norway, and below, astrophotographer Göran Strand recently captured shots of the aurora from northern Sweden. Enjoy these shimmering beauties and we look forward to seeing more aurora as the summer winds down in the northern hemisphere.


Aurora over northern Sweden on August 23, 2013. Credit and copyright: Göran Strand.
Aurora over northern Sweden on August 23, 2013. Credit and copyright: Göran Strand.

You can see more of Frank’s beautiful imagery of aurora, the night sky and more at his Flickr page, his website (he has prints for sale) or his Facebook page.

See more of Göran’s handiwork at his website, Facebook, or Twitter.

Want to get your astrophoto featured on Universe Today? Join our Flickr group or send us your images by email (this means you’re giving us permission to post them). Please explain what’s in the picture, when you took it, the equipment you used, etc.

Ready, Set, Observe! How to See Comet ISON In The Early Morning Sky

Comet ISON shows a small, compact coma and short, faint tail in this photo made by Krisztian Sarneczky on Aug. 31, 2013. Credit: K. Sárneczky / Konkoly Observatory

OK, you’ve waited patiently for Comet ISON to brighten and  reappear in the dawn sky. It has. Now you’re chomping at the bit for a look at it in your telescope. Before you set the alarm and venture into the night, let’s prepare for what to expect. The better you know your target, the easier it will be to find.

Belgian astrophotographer Alfons Diepvens captured this view of ISON on Sept. 1, 2013 through his telescope. Tail length and direction are indicated. Click image to see more photos of ISON and other recent comets. Credit: Alfons Diepvens
Astrophotographer Alfons Diepvens captured this view of ISON on Sept. 1, 2013 through his telescope. Tail length and direction are indicated. Click image to see more his photos of ISON and other recent comets. Credit: Alfons Diepvens

The latest brightness estimates from the amateur comet community place ISON around magnitude 13, bright enough to be within reach of 10-inch (25 cm) and larger telescopes. Alan Hale of Arizona, co-discover of Comet Hale-Bopp, was one of the first to see it.  Through his 16-inch (41 cm) reflecting telescope  on September 1, he noted the comet as a small object about 0.6 arc minutes across (1 arc minute = 1/30 the diameter of the full moon), brighter in the center and shining faintly at magnitude 13.1. Picture a small, dim patch of glowing mist and you’ve got the picture. Hale’s observing conditions were excellent though he did have to contend with light from the nearby crescent moon. Starting tomorrow morning, the moon will finally be out of the picture.

This map shows the sky as you face east tomorrow morning  Sept. 3 around 5 a.m. local time just before the start of morning twilight. The comet is not far from Mars and the Beehive Cluster. Stellarium
With the moon out of the sky, now is a great time to hunt for Comet ISON. This map shows the sky as you face east tomorrow morning Sept. 3 around 5 a.m. local time just before the start of morning twilight. The comet is near both Mars and the Beehive Cluster. Stellarium

A sharp-eyed observer under the best skies would expect to see a fuzzy object this faint in a telescope as small as 8-inches (20 cm). Most of us will need something a little bigger. A 10-12 incher (25-30 cm) should do the trick until the comet swells into the 11-12 magnitude range. But you’ll need more than a hefty scope. Key to spotting ISON are good charts, a steady atmosphere for sharp images (shaky air blurs faint objects into invisibility) and catching the comet at the right time. I also encourage you to use averted vision, a great technique for spotting faint sky objects. Instead of staring directly at the comet, look off to the side of its position. That way you allow the comet’s feeble photons to flood your eye’s rod cells, those most sensitive to dim light.

This tighter view shows the comet in relation to the naked eye star Gamma Cancri and the lovely Beehive Cluster in Cancer the Crab. Stellarium
This tighter view shows the comet (on Sept. 3) in relation to the naked eye star Gamma Cancri and the pretty Beehive Cluster in Cancer the Crab. North is up, west to the right. Stellarium

While it now rises around 3-3:30 a.m. local time, you’ll get your best – or only – view once ISON has cleared the light-sucking thick air and haze so common near the horizon. The optimum viewing time occurs shortly before the start of morning twilight when the comet will be about 15 degrees high in the northeastern sky. At mid-northern latitudes,where twilight begins about 1.5 hours before sunrise, that’s around 5 a.m. Did I mention you’d lose a few hours sleep in your pursuit?

Comet ISON's position plotted for 5 a.m. Central Daylight Time tomorrow through the 10th. Stars are shown to 12th magnitude.  Click for larger version. Created with Chris Marriott's SkyMap Pro program
Comet ISON’s position plotted for 5 a.m. Central Daylight Time tomorrow through the 10th. Stars are shown to 12th magnitude. Click for larger version. Created with Chris Marriott’s SkyMap Pro program

Lucky for us comet hunters, ISON’s location is easy to find only a few degrees east of the 1st magnitude planet Mars and about 2 degrees north of the familiar Beehive Cluster or M44. The first map shows the general view to get you oriented. The second takes us in closer to show the comet’s relation to the Beehive Cluster, and the third provides a detailed telescopic view with stars plotted to about 12th magnitude. The comet positions on the detailed map are plotted for 5 a.m. CDT. Since ISON moves relatively slowly, those positions will be accurate for a time zone or two either way. If you live significantly farther east or west of the U.S. Central Time Zone, you can interpolate between the tick marks.

It’s good news for skywatchers from here on out as ISON continues to brighten and rise higher in the east with each passing night. A month from now, it should be visible in scopes as small as 6-inches (15 cm). Good luck in your comet quest!

Carnival of Space #317

This week’s Carnival of Space is hosted by Allen Versfeld at his Urban Astronomer blog.


Click here to read Carnival of Space #317.

And if you’re interested in looking back, here’s an archive to all the past Carnivals of Space. If you’ve got a space-related blog, you should really join the carnival. Just email an entry to [email protected], and the next host will link to it. It will help get awareness out there about your writing, help you meet others in the space community – and community is what blogging is all about. And if you really want to help out, sign up to be a host. Send an email to the above address.

Why “The Big Bang” Is a Terrible Name

Have a discussion about the origins of the Universe and, ere long, someone will inevitably use the term “the Big Bang” to describe the initial moment of expansion of everything that was to everything that is. But in reality “Big Bang” isn’t a very good term since “big” implies size (and when it occurred space didn’t technically exist yet) and there was no “bang.” In fact the name wasn’t ever even meant to be an official moniker, but once it was used (somewhat derisively) by British astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle in a radio broadcast in 1949, it stuck.

Unfortunately it’s just so darn catchy.

This excellent video from minutephysics goes a bit more into depth as to why the name is inaccurate — even though we’ll likely continue using it for quite some time. (Thanks to Sir Hoyle.)

And you have to admit, a television show called “The Everywhere Stretch Theory” would never have caught on. Bazinga!

Astrophotos: Closeups of the Lunar Terminator

Closeup of the crescent Moon on October 12, 2012. Credit and copyright: Wes Schulstad

If you want to see detail on the Moon, usually the best times and places to look are when the Moon is in a crescent phase, and near the terminator. These recent images uploaded to Universe Today’s Flickr page will attest to that! Enjoy the views:

Closeup of the Moon showing Endymion, Atlas and the distant Mare Humboldtianum. Credit and copyright: Danny Robb.
Closeup of the Moon showing Endymion, Atlas and the distant Mare Humboldtianum. Credit and copyright: Danny Robb.
Lunar terminator mosaic, August 26th 2013. Credit and copyright: Russell Bateman.
Lunar terminator mosaic, August 26th 2013. Credit and copyright: Russell Bateman.
64% illuminated waning gibbous Moon on August 26, 2013. Credit and copyright: Themagster3 on Flickr.
64% illuminated waning gibbous Moon on August 26, 2013. Credit and copyright: Themagster3 on Flickr.
Plato to Aristillus to Aristoteles in Color - 8/26/13. Credit and copyright: Fred Locklear.
Plato to Aristillus to Aristoteles in Color – 8/26/13. Credit and copyright: Fred Locklear.
Waning crescent Moon on August 30, 2013. Credit and copyright: Sculptor Lil on Flickr.
Waning crescent Moon on August 30, 2013. Credit and copyright: Sculptor Lil on Flickr.

To see more information on each image, click on the image to see it on Flickr.

Want to get your astrophoto featured on Universe Today? Join our Flickr group or send us your images by email (this means you’re giving us permission to post them). Please explain what’s in the picture, when you took it, the equipment you used, etc.

How to See Mars in September 2013: The Red Planet Pierces the Beehive & More

Mars on September 8th. (Created by the author using Stellarium).

Launch season for Mars missions is almost upon us once again.

This is a time when spacecraft can achieve an optimal trajectory to reach the Red Planet, expending a minimal amount of fuel and taking the shortest period of time. This window of opportunity, which opens once every two years, always opens up about six months prior to Martian opposition.

For you stargazers, this is also the best time to observe the Red Planet as it makes its closest approach to Earth. And no, it won’t appear as large as a Full Moon, but it will make for a fine telescopic target.

During the last launch window in 2011-12, Mars Curiosity made the journey, and Russia’s Phobos-Grunt tried. Hey, it’s a tough business, this spaceflight thing. This time around, The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) hopes to launch its first ever interplanetary spacecraft, with its Mars Orbiter Mission departing on October 18th. NASA is also sending its Mars Atmosphere Volatile EvolutioN mission known as MAVEN to study the atmosphere of the Red Planet.

Opposition next occurs on April 8th, 2014, but the start of launch season always finds Mars emerging high to the east at dawn. Starting next week, Mars has some interesting encounters that are worth checking out as a prelude to the upcoming opposition season.

The planet Mars shines at +1.6 magnitude and is about 4” in size in September. This is a far cry from its maximum size of 15.1” that it will achieve next spring, and its grandest maximum size of 25.1” that it reached in 2003. All oppositions of Mars are not created equal, because of the planet’s 9.3% eccentric orbit.

But the good news is, we’re trending towards a better series of oppositions, which follow a roughly 15 year cycle. In 2018, we’ll see an opposition nearly as good as the 2003 one, with Mars appearing 24.1” in size. This is also the time frame that Dennis Tito wants to launch his crewed Mars 2018 flyby.

But back to the present. The action starts on September 2nd when the waning crescent Moon passes 6.1 degrees SSW of Mars.

Mars is currently in the constellation Cancer, and will actually transit (pass in front of) the open star cluster known as the Beehive or Messier 44, standing only 0.23 degrees from its center on September 8th. M44 is 1.5 degrees in size, and this presents an outstanding photo-op.

The path of Mars through the beehive cluster from September 3rd through September 12th. (Creat
The path of Mars through the beehive cluster from September 3rd through September 12th. (Created in Starry Night; Image courtesy of Starry Night Education).

At high power, you might just be able to catch the real time motion of Mars against the background stars of M44. Mars currently rises three hours before the Sun, giving you a slim window to accomplish this feat.

Mars is also in the midst of a series of transits of the Beehive Cluster, with one occurring every other year. Mars last crossed M44 on October 1st, 2011.  The next time you’ll be able to spy this same alignment won’t be until August 20th, 2015.

But another cosmic interloper may photo-bomb Mars in September.

We’re talking about none other than Comet C/2012 S1 ISON, the big wildcard event of the season. Comet ISON is just peeking out from behind the Sun now, and dedicated amateurs have already managed to recover it. “IF” it follows projected light curve predictions, ISON may reach binocular visibility of greater than +10th magnitude by October 1st and may breech naked eye visibility by early November.

ISON approaches within two degrees of Mars on September 27th. Its closest apparent approach is will be on Oct 18th at a minimum separation of 0.89 degrees, just over the size of a Full Moon. How bright ISON will actually be at that point is the question of the season. To quote veteran comet hunter David Levy, “Comets are like cats. They have tails, and they do whatever they want.” The closest physical approach of Mars and Comet ISON is on October 1st at 0.07 astronomical units, or 10.4 million kilometres apart. Both will be crossing over from the astronomical constellations of Cancer into Leo in late September.

Comet ISON and Mars looking east on the morning of September 27th.
Comet ISON and Mars looking east on the morning of September 27th. (Created in Starry Night; Image courtesy of Starry Night Education).

Mars gets another close shave from a comet next year, when Comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring passes 123,000 kilometres from Mars on October 19th, 2014. Interestingly, MAVEN will be arriving just a month prior to this if it departs Earth at the start of its 21 day window. Engineers have noted that an increase in cometary dust may be a concern for the newly arrived spacecraft during insertion into Martian orbit.

MAVEN Principal Investigator Bruce Jakosky notes that the first concern is the safety of the spacecraft, the second is studies of Mars, and the third is, just perhaps, to carry out observations of the comet.

Look for more information on Universe Today about the Martian cometary flybys as each event gets closer.

September is a great time to begin observations of the Red Planet. Usually, 8” seconds in diameter is the threshold that is frequently quoted for the first surface features (usually to polar ice caps) to become apparent, but we’re already seeing astro-imagers getting detailed images of Mars, right now.

Be sure to follow Mars on its trek across the September dawn skies as robotic explorers prepare to embark on their epic journeys!

‘Drift Is The Most Dangerous Thing For NASA’

Astronaut Drew Feustel reenters the space station after completing an 8-hour, 7-minute spacewalk at on Sunday, May 22, 2011. He and fellow spacewalker Mike Fincke conducted the second of the four EVAs during the STS-134 mission. Credit: NASA

It’s easy to take the International Space Station for granted. It’s been planned, under construction and/or operated for decades. Humans have occupied it continuously for 4,684 days (close to 13 years) as of today. According to two space policy experts, however, NASA should already be thinking of what it’s going to do next after the station’s current agreement expires in 2020.

Ignoring the deadline, they said, could lead to consequences such as (in one scenario) the end of U.S. government spaceflight altogether.

Below are edited excerpts from two officials from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Scott Pace is its director, and John M. Logsdon is a professor emeritus. They spoke with reporters Thursday (Aug. 29) about the coming NASA budget decision and their views on the agency’s future.

We’d also like to get your feedback on their ideas, so please leave your thoughts in the comments.

Why the Senate allocated so much more money to NASA in fiscal 2014 than the House of Representatives:

Pace: In my view, the House numbers are complying with the Budget Control Act in terms of sequestration numbers. In the Senate, the numbers were not in line with the Budget Control Act, but reflected what the priorities of the authorization committee were … I would argue, and we’ll see if others agree, that the Senate has marginalized themselves in this discussion. The appropriations staff will have the larger say in that, but on the House side, the authorizors and the appropriators will be together because they have discussed what their priorities were.”

Where NASA’s direction comes from:

Logsdon: It’s a residual of 40 years of failure to reach consensus of what the U.S. should be doing in space and particularly, human spaceflight. In the first year and a half of the Nixon administration, he was faced with what to do after Apollo and basically punted. He said, “Let’s develop means, rather than set goals.” The means was the shuttle … The lack of leadership of this administration, which is not much different than most presidents since Nixon and including Nixon, have put us in a situation that is unfortunate, and, as Scott [Pace] says, leads to a lot of drift and lack of sense of purpose.

The biggest obstacle of NASA’s asteroid retrieval proposal:

Pace: [One goal for NASA often is to implement] priorities of decadal surveys from the National Academy of Sciences. Things like the asteroid redirect mission, which will burden portions of the human and science programs, have no decadal survey mention or no larger contribution to the science. It’s another capability-driven-evolution sort of project, with some very basic flaws to it in terms of not providing that long-term sense of strategic purpose.

Concept of NASA spacecraft with Asteroid capture mechanism deployed to redirect a small space rock to a stable lunar orbit for later study by astronauts aboard Orion crew capsule. Credit: NASA.
Concept of NASA spacecraft with Asteroid capture mechanism deployed to redirect a small space rock to a stable lunar orbit for later study by astronauts aboard Orion crew capsule. Credit: NASA.

If the International Space Station will be extended beyond 2020:

Logsdon: There’s not enough money to have a robust space exploration program and to use the space station at a $3 billion a year level in 2028. None of the current partners — with a possible exception of Canada — but certainly, Europe and Japan are not enthusiastic about spending money on space station post-2020. They really had to be dragged, their governments had to be dragged, to commit the funds for the extension to 2020. It’s not clear, if there is a decision to go beyond, whether the United States will have its early partners [committed.]

Pace: What happens with other major scientific facilities that NASA has, like the Hubble Space Telescope, is you have a senior review. After you’ve met the initial requirements [of the mission], you ask what is the facility costing me, what am I getting out of it, and make a decision whether to continue. You will see, in anticipation of 2020, you will see the beginnings of a senior review to see what will be in the NASA 2020 budget. It is dependent upon data being created now — the scientific and technical benefits — and where will the benefits flow for plans beyond space station. If there are no plans for human flight beyond space station … the default option is to do the station as long as it is technically capable, but eventually it will be deorbited. And there will be an end to U.S. government spaceflight.

A view of the International Space Station as seen by the last departing space shuttle crew, STS-135. Credit: NASA
A view of the International Space Station as seen by the last departing space shuttle crew, STS-135. Credit: NASA

If government-funded human spaceflight could end in the United States:

Pace: I can imagine a President presiding over the end of human spaceflight, not as a conscious decision but as an unfortunate accident. Drift is the most dangerous thing for NASA.

Logsdon: Would any President be willing to be that person to end the government-sponsored spaceflight program? I’m not sure the answer is no. It could be that a future President could say we’ve done it and there’s no future reasoning to continue at fairly high expense to continue to do it. But I would speculate the more likely answer, given the industrial and regional interests, is some sort of limping through human spaceflight. It’s more similar than different for the past four decades.

What NASA needs right now:

Logsdon: I’m taking less about the NASA leadership than I am the White House and Congressional leadership. What’s missing is a sense of strategic purpose of the organization, what should it be doing, and that is the job of a national leader. It is enunciating for NASA, as well as other government agencies, for what its long-term and even midterm strategic purpose is in terms of the natinoal interest ought to be.

Pace: [The United States must determine] what is the role of international leadership in space for the United States and to what extent are we willing to make plans for beyond the station. 2020 is not that far away. The focus on NASA right now, with ISS, is utilization. The station has been a great diplomatic success, great technical success, but it’s not clear if it will be a great scientific success.