Forecast of surface pressures five days into the future for the north Pacific, North America, and north Atlantic ocean. Credit: NOAA
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When Vanguard 2 was launched on February 17, 1959 it became our first orbiting “eye” on Earth’s weather. Although the satellite was unsuccessful in the long run, it paved the way for TIROS-1 about a year later. This in turn opened the avenue for the Nimbus program – the forerunner for today’s NASA and NOAA’s space-based weather observatories. Although our current climate spectators have proven to be not only efficacious, but enduring, the recent economy may spell an end to future pursuits.
With what appears to be crazy changes to our weather in recent times, they may not produce opportunities for climatologists to take advantage of data produced by satellite imaging. However, leaders in all fields of study are emphasizing the importance of continuing the weather satellite programs. “The stakes are high and the challenge is great,” said Earth Science Director Michael Freilich, at a briefing at the Forum on Earth Observation.
The importance of weather prediction affects our world population in more ways than just grabbing an umbrella or getting out your winter coat. Radical ramifications can disrupt logistics and threaten lives. This realization has prompted support from everyone from US President Obama to National Weather Service director Jack Hayes As the director explained, the “what if” synopsis could be very ugly when it comes to above average snowfall, powerful hurricanes or deadly tornadoes. The geostationary satellites portray global weather from a high level standpoint – but the lower, polar orbiters collect far more detailed data in a three to five day window that’s needed to make forecasting by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration possible.
“People tend to talk about forecasts in terms of extreme weather, but it’s also important to collect and study data over the long term to see how things are changing in certain areas and to anticipate the future.” said John Townshend of the University of Maryland. “We’ve got to recognize that climate change is occurring, whether or not you believe in global warming. Climate changes from year-to-year.”
We’re back! Where In The Universe took a little vacation, and thanks to everyone who wrote in to say they missed their weekly WITU.
You remember what to do, right? Take a look at this image and see if you can determine where in the universe this image is from; give yourself extra points if you can name the spacecraft/telescope responsible for the image. We’ll provide the image today, but won’t reveal the answer until later. This gives you a chance to mull over the image and provide your answer/guess in the comment section. Please, no links or extensive explanations of what you think this is — give everyone the chance to guess.
Remember, we’ll take suggestions for future WITU’s — just send Nancy an email
UPDATE: The answer is now posted below.
We didn’t fool too many people that this was perhaps a HiRISE image from Mars. It actually is Ar Rub al Khali Sand Sea, in the Arabian Peninsula and it was photographed by an Expedition 27 crew member on the International Space Station. The Ar Rub al Khali, also known as the “Empty Quarter”, is a large region of sand dunes and interdune flats known as a sand sea (or erg).
Yes, the world will end someday, but probably not in your lifetime. Just had to post this video “mashup” from our friend Phil Plait’s Discovery Channel series “Bad Universe” put together with the soundtrack from George Hrab’s album “Trebuchet.”
What will the June 15th lunar eclipse look like from the Moon itself? Luckily, we’ve got the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter circling the Moon, and we can find out. However, most of the instruments on LRO will be powering down during the eclipse, but one instrument, called Diviner, will stay on. “It will be like a nap with one eye open!” the LRO spacecraft said on Facebook. The Diviner Lunar Radiometer instrument will record how quickly different areas on the moon’s day side cool off during the eclipse. Since large boulders cool more slowly than a fine-grained or dusty surface, Diviner will be able to see what areas are covered with boulders and what regions are blanketed by dust. Continue reading “How LRO Plans to Watch the Lunar Eclipse from the Moon”
Our Sun on June 6, 2011. Credit: Credit: Cesar Cantu from the Chilidog Observatory in Monterrey, Mexico.
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Are we headed into the 21st century version of the Maunder Minimum? Three researchers studying three different aspects of the Sun have all come up with the same conclusion: the Sun’s regular solar cycles could be shutting down or going into hibernation. A major decrease in solar activity is predicted to occur for the next solar cycle (cycle #25), and our current solar cycle (#24) could be the last typical one. “Three very different types of observations all pointing in the same direction is very compelling,” said Dr. Frank Hill from the National Solar Observatory, speaking at a press briefing today. “Cycle 24 may be the last normal one, and 25 may not even happen.”
Even though the Sun has been active recently as it heads towards solar maximum in 2013, there are three lines of evidence pointing to a solar cycle that may be going on hiatus. They are: a missing jet stream, slower activity near the poles of the sun and a weakening magnetic field, meaning fading sunspots. Hill, along with Dr. Richard Altrock from the Air Force Research Laboratory and Dr. Matt Penn from the National Solar Observatory independently studied the different aspects of the solar interior, the visible surface, and the corona and all concur that cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
Solar activity, including sunspot numbers, rises and falls on average about every 11 years – sometimes the cycles are as short as 9 years, other times it is as long as 13 years. The Sun’s magnetic poles reverse about every 22 years, so 11 years is half of that magnetic interval cycle.
"Butterfly diagram" shows the position of sunspots over 12 solar cycles. Sunspots emerge over a range of latitudes centered on migratory jet streams that follow a clear pattern, trending from higher latitudes to lower latitudes on the Sun. The active latitudes are associated with mobile zonal flows or "jet streams" that vary through the cycle. Credit: SWRI
The first line of evidence is a slowing of a plasma flow inside the Sun, an east/west flow of gases under the surface of the Sun detected via seismology with spacecraft like the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)or SOHO and also with the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) observing stations, a system that measures pulsations on the solar surface to understand the internal structure of the sun. The flow of plasma normally indicates the onset of sunspot formation for the next solar cycle. While this river ebbs and flows during the cycle, the “torsional oscillations,” — which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator — and normally begins forming for the next solar cycle has not yet been detected.
Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams typically form at about 50 degrees latitude (as in 1999 on this plot) and are associated with the following solar cycle 11 years later. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25. Credit: SWRI
Hill said the above graphic is key for understanding the issue. “The flow for Cycle 25 should have appeared in 2008 or 2009 but it has not and we see no sign of it,” he said. “This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, with a minimum great that what we just experienced, or may not happen at all.”
Plots of coronal brightness against solar latitude show a "rush to the poles" that reflects the formation of subsurface shear in the solar polar regions. The current "rush to the poles" is delayed and weak, reflecting the lack of new shear under the photosphere. Note the graph depicts both north and south hemispheres overlaid into one map of solar magnetic activity, and that the patterns correspond with the butterfly diagram above. Credit: SWRI
The second line of evidence is slowing of the “rush to the poles,” the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun’s faint corona. Altrock said the activity in the solar corona follows same oscillation pattern described by Hill, and that they have been observing the pattern for about 40 years. The researchers now see a very weak and slow pattern in this movement.
“A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun,” Altrock said. “Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.”
In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward. “In previous solar cycles, solar maximum occurred when the rush to the poles reached an average latitude of 76 degrees,” Altrock said. “Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. It is not clear whether solar max as we know it.”
Altrock added that if the “rush” doesn’t occur, no one knows what will happen in the future because no one has modeled what takes place without this rush to the poles.
Average magnetic field strength in sunspot umbras has been steadily declining for over a decade. The trend includes sunspots from Cycles 22, 23, and (the current cycle) 24. Credit: SWRI
The third line of evidence is a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots. Penn, along with his colleague William Livingston predict that by Cycle 25, magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed.
Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.
“Things are erupting on the sun,” Penn said, “but they don’t have the energy to create sunspots.”
But back in 1645-1715 was the period known as the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots. The Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle – and coldest part – of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced bitterly cold winters. It has not been proven whether there is a causal connection between low sunspot activity and cold winters. However lower earth temperatures have been observed during low sunspot activity. If the researchers are correct in their predictions, will we experience a similar downturn in temperatures?
Hill said that some researchers say that the Sun’s activity can also play a role in climate change, but in his opinion, the evidence is not clear-cut. Altrock commented he doesn’t want to stick his neck out about how the Sun’s declining activity could affect Earth’s climate, and Penn added that Cycle 25 may provide a good opportunity to find out if the activity on the Sun contributes to climate change on Earth.
Lead image thanks to César Cantú in Monterrey, Mexico at the Chilidog Observatory. See more at his website, Astronomía Y Astrofotografía.
You can follow Universe Today senior editor Nancy Atkinson on Twitter: @Nancy_A. Follow Universe Today for the latest space and astronomy news on Twitter @universetoday and on Facebook.
Double your pleasure… Double your fun… Double twin planets found orbiting a double sun! Are you ready for the weird, true and freaky? Then check out what Drs. Stephen Potter and Encarni Romero-Colmenero from the South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO) and their colleagues have found. It would appear there’s evidence pointing towards the existence of a double planetary system where a pair of giants are at home orbiting a binary star.
Known in polite social circles as UZ Fornacis, this eclipsing double star is anything but a friendly environment for a solar system. Because the pair orbits so closely, the white dwarf never stops collecting material from its red dwarf companion. This steady flow gets superheated to millions of degrees and produces copious amounts of deadly x-rays. This pair of twin stars are so small they would fit within the radius of our Sun and orbit each other within a period of hours. Because of their eclipsing nature, Dr. Potter and his collaborators were quick to notice that the periodic timing wasn’t regular. This evidence led them to theorize a pair of planets needed to be present to account for the wobble and to infer that the masses of the two planets must be at least 6 and 8 times that of Jupiter and take 16 and 5 years respectively to orbit the two stars.
“The two planet model can provide realistic solutions but it does not quite capture all of the eclipse times measurements. A highly eccentric orbit for the outer planet would fit the data nicely, but we find that such a solution would be unstable” says Potter, et al. ” It is also possible that the periodicities are driven by some combination of both mechanisms. Further observations of this system are encouraged.”
This discovery was made possible by new SAAO and Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) observations combined with archival data spanning 27 years, gathered from multiple observatories and satellites.
Original Story Source: South African Astronomical Observatory News.
The solar minimum occurs approximately every 11 years when fewer sunspots like these appear. Image credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
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Since Galileo’s time, humans have been going essentially blind following sunspots. But, as our technology advanced, our blindness as to solar causes and effects was lifted. Thanks to Edward Maunder’s work in the late 1800s, we began to “see” a bit better as the 11-year sunspot cycle emerged. From earlier observation, the “Maunder Minimum” – a period roughly spanning 1645 to 1715 when sunspots were a rarity – was established and the hypothesis of the Little Ice Age came forward. But no proof exists that solar minimum affects much here on Earth… Or does it?
Modern technology has allowed us to study solar phenomena in ways our predecessors would never have imagined. In 2008, scientists were able to document the solar minimum as one of the most prolonged and weak since the advent of space-based instrumentation. But with our terrestrial blinders off, it didn’t take long to establish the lack of solar activity didn’t correspond with solar magnetism. Quite simply put, auroral activity didn’t decrease proportionately… until 8 months later. A paper in Annales Geophysicae that appeared on May 16, 2011 reports these effects on Earth did in fact reach a minimum – the lowest levels of the century. Solar wind speed along with the strength and direction of the magnetic field seems to have taken a dominant role.
“Historically, the solar minimum is defined by sunspot number,” says space weather scientist Bruce Tsurutani at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., who is first author on the paper. “Based on that, 2008 was identified as the period of solar minimum. But the geomagnetic effects on Earth reached their minimum quite some time later, in 2009. So we decided to look at what caused the geomagnetic minimum.”
Geomagnetic effects are based on the Sun’s power to alter Earth’s magnetic fields. Measured with a magnetometer, these effects usually produce nothing more than auroral activity. But extreme examples could include power grid failures, satellite disruption and more. Understanding our space weather is important and three factors come to bear: the speed of the solar wind, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field and which direction it is flowing. The team – which also included Walter Gonzalez and Ezequiel Echer of the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research in São José dos Campos, Brazil – examined each of these factors in sequence.
At the onset, the researchers agreed the interplanetary magnetic field was at a low in 2008 and 2009. This was obviously a factor to the geomagnetic minimum, but since effects didn’t decrease in 2008, it couldn’t be the sole reason. To study solar wind speed, the employed NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and data revealed the speed of the solar wind stayed high during the sunspot minimum. It took a period of time to decay – one that matched the decline in geomagnetic effects. The next step was to determine the cause – and the smoking gun appeared to be coronal holes. Here is where solar wind can burst forth from the center at speeds of 500 miles per second, but slows down when coming from the sides and extends across space.
“Usually, at solar minimum, the coronal holes are at the sun’s poles,” says Giuliana de Toma, a solar scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research whose research on this topic helped provide insight for this paper. “Therefore, Earth receives wind from only the edges of these holes, and it’s not very fast. But in 2007 and 2008, the coronal holes were not confined to the poles as normal.”
Coincidental evidence? Not hardly. In 2008 the coronal holes remained at low solar latitudes with their winds pointed directly toward Earth. Not until 2009 did they move toward the Sun’s poles and geomagnetic effects and sightings of the aurora went proportionally along with it. It’s even been theorized coronal holes may be responsible for minimizing the southward direction of the interplanetary magnetic field as well. Such a combination of all factors are setting the stage for geomagnetic minimum, but study is still needed to help understand and predict such phenomena. To do so well, Tsurutani points out, requires focusing on the tight connection between such effects and the complex physics of the sun. “It’s important to understand all of these features better,” he says. “To understand what causes low interplanetary magnetic fields and what causes coronal holes in general. This is all part of the solar cycle. And all part of what causes effects on Earth.”
Four ISS passes over the UK last night. Credit: Mark Humpage
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Last night in the UK, US and Europe, we were spoiled with multiple and bright ISS passes. Not just one or two, but up to six passes were able to be viewed throughout the evening in some locations.
This is quite rare as normally we get only one or maybe two visible passes in the evening or morning.
So why are we getting as many as four to six passes per night?
The ISS did receive an orbital boost and its altitude increased by around 20 kilometers. The orbital height of the ISS has an effect on how many visible passes there are at present in the Northern hemisphere. Another reason is because of the time of year.
We are only a week or so away from the Summer Solstice, the time of year when the Northern hemisphere receives the most hours of sunlight. Naturally this means we only have a few hours of darkness and the further North you go, the shorter the nights are and in some locations this time of year, it doesn’t ever get truly dark.
So why does this affect the ISS?
Basically the ISS visible passes have increased due to the station being illuminated much more by the Sun as there are more hours of sunlight right now, but the effect will wear off when we pass through Summer solstice and the nights get longer again.
Take advantage of this rare time and go outside and enjoy the ISS as much as you can in this series of visible passes.
Need to know how and when you can see the ISS? NASA has a Skywatch page where you can find your specific city to look for satellite sighting info.
Spaceweather.com, has a Satellite Tracker Tool. Just put in your zip code (good for the US and Canada) to find out what satellites will be flying over your house.
Heaven’s Above also has a city search, but also you can input your exact latitude and longitude for exact sighting information, helpful if you live out in the country.
A star is born: Swirling gas and dust fall inward, spurring polar jets, shown in blue in this illustration. Illustration courtesy NASA/Caltech
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Located in the constellation of Perseus and just a mere 750 light years from Earth, a young protostar is very busy spewing forth copious amounts of water. Embedded in a cloud of gas and dust, the hundred thousand year old infant is blasting out this elemental life ingredient from both poles like an open hydrant – and its fast moving droplets may be seeding our Universe…
“If we picture these jets as giant hoses and the water droplets as bullets, the amount shooting out equals a hundred million times the water flowing through the Amazon River every second,” said Lars Kristensen, a postdoctoral astronomer at Leiden University in the Netherlands and lead author of the new study detailing the discovery, which has been accepted for publication in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.. “We are talking about velocities reaching 200,000 kilometers [124,000 miles] per hour, which is about 80 times faster than bullets flying out of a machine gun.”
To capture the the quicksilver signature of hydrogen and oxygen atoms, the researchers employed the infrared instruments on-board the European Space Agency’s Herschel Space Observatory. Once the atoms were located, they were followed back to the star where they were formed at just a few thousand degrees Celsius. But like hitting hot black top, once the droplets encounter the outpouring of 180,000-degree-Fahrenheit (100,000-degree-Celsius) gas jets, they turn into a gaseous format. “Once the hot gases hit the much cooler surrounding material – at about 5,000 times the distance from the sun to Earth – they decelerate, creating a shock front where the gases cool down rapidly, condense, and reform as water.” Kristensen said.
Like kids of all ages playing with squirt guns, this exciting discovery would appear to be a normal part of a star “growing up” – and may very well have been part of our own Sun’s distant past. “We are only now beginning to understand that sun-like stars probably all undergo a very energetic phase when they are young,” Kristensen said. “It’s at this point in their lives when they spew out a lot of high-velocity material – part of which we now know is water.”
Just like filling summer days with fun, this “star water” may well be enhancing the interstellar medium with life-giving fundamentals… even if that “life” is the birth of another star. The water-jet phenomenon seen in Perseus is “probably a short-lived phase all protostars go through,” Kristensen said. “But if we have enough of these sprinklers going off throughout the galaxy – this starts to become interesting on many levels.”
Mars Rover Curiosity, Front View during mobility testing on June 3, 2011. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
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Just over a year from now, NASA’s Curiosity rover should be driving across fascinating new landscapes on the surface of Mars if all goes well. Curiosity is NASA next Mars rover – the Mars Science Laboratory – and is targeted to launch during a three week window that extends from Nov. 25 to Dec. 18, 2011 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla..
At NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif., engineering specialists have been putting Curiosity through the final phase of mobility tests to check out the driving capability, robotic arm movements and sample collection maneuvers that the robot will carry out while traversing the landing site after plummeting through the Martian atmosphere in August 2012.
Take a good look at this album of newly released images from JPL showing Curiosity from the front and sides, maneuvering all six wheels, climbing obstacles and flexing the robotic arm and turret for science sample collection activities as it will do while exploring the red planet’s surface.
Mars Rover Curiosity's Arm Held High
Curiosity is following in the footsteps of the legendary Spirit and Opportunity rovers which landed on opposite side of Mars in 2004.
“The rover and descent stage will be delivered to the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) later in June,” Guy Webster, public affairs officer at JPL, told me. An Air Force C-17 transport plane has already delivered the heat shield, back shell and cruise stage on May 12, 2011.
“The testing remaining in California is with engineering models and many operational readiness tests,” Webster elaborated. “Lots of testing remains to be done on the flight system at KSC, including checkouts after shipping, a system test, a fit check with the RTG, tests during final stacking.”
Mars Rover Curiosity, Turning in Place during mobility testin. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
The three meter long rover will explore new terrain that will hopefully provide clues as to whether Mars harbored environmental conditions that may have been favorable to the formation of microbial life beyond Earth and preserved evidence of whether left ever existed in the past and continued through dramatic alterations in Mars history.
NASA is evaluating a list of four potential landing sites that will offer the highest science return and the best chance of finding a potentially habitable zone in a previously unexplored site on the red planet. Mars Rover Curiosity Raising Turret
Mars Rover Curiosity, Left Side ViewMars Rover Curiosity with Wheel on RampMars Rover Curiosity, Right Side View
