Astronomy Cast Ep. 474: Predictions for 2018

Phew, 2018, time to press the reset button and enjoy a whole new year of space exploration and space science. What’s coming up this year? What should we expect to launch, and what will we see in the sky?

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Huge Sheets of Ice Found Hidden Just Beneath the Surface of Mars

A cross-section of underground ice is exposed at the steep slope that appears bright blue in this enhanced-color view from the HiRISE camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UA/USGS

Its an established fact that Mars was once a warmer and wetter place, with liquid water covering much of its surface. But between 4.2 and 3.7 billion years ago, the planet lost its atmosphere, which caused most of its surface water to disappear. Today, much of that water remains hidden beneath the surface in the form of water ice, which is largely restricted to the polar regions.

In recent years, scientists have also learned of ice deposits that exist in the equatorial regions of Mars, though it was unlcear how deep they ran. But according to a new study led by the U.S. Geological Survey, erosion on the surface of Mars has revealed abundant deposits of water ice. In addition to representing a major research opportunity, these deposits could serve as a source of water for Martian settlements, should they ever be built.

The study, titled “Exposed subsurface ice sheets in the Martian mid-latitudes“, recently appeared in Science. The study was led by Colin M. Dundas, a researcher with the U.S. Geological Survey, and included members from the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory (LPL) at the University of Arizona, Johns Hopkins University, the Georgia Institute of Technology, the Planetary Science Institute, and the Institute for Geophysics at the University of Texas at Austin.

Artists concept of the Mars Reconnaisance Orbiter (MRO). Credit: NASA/JPL

For the sake of their study, the team consulted data obtained by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). This data revealed eight locations in the mid-latitude region of Mars where steep slopes created by erosion exposed substantial quantities of sub-surface ice. These deposits could extend as deep as 100 meters (328 feet) or more.

The fractures and steep angles indicate that the ice is cohesive and strong. As Dundas explained in a recent NASA press statement:

“There is shallow ground ice under roughly a third of the Martian surface, which records the recent history of Mars. What we’ve seen here are cross-sections through the ice that give us a 3-D view with more detail than ever before.”

These ice deposits, which are exposed in cross-section as relatively pure water ice, were likely deposited as snow long ago. They have since become capped by a layer of ice-cemented rock and dust that is between one to two meters (3.28 to 6.56 ft) thick. The eight sites they observed were found in both the northern and southern hemispheres of Mars, at latitudes from about 55° to 58°, which accounts for the majority of the surface.

It would be no exaggeration to say that this is a huge find, and presents major opportunities for scientific research on Mars. In addition to affecting modern geomorphology, this ice is also a preserved record of Mars’ climate history. Much like how the Curiosity rover is currently delving into Mars’ past by examining sedimentary deposits in the Gale Crater, future missions could drill into this ice to obtain other geological records for comparison.

At this pit on Mars, the steep slope at the northern edge (toward the top of the image) exposes a cross-section of a thick sheet of underground water ice. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UA/USGS

These ice deposits were previously detected by the Mars Odyssey orbiter (using spectrometers) and ground-penetrated radar aboard the MRO and the ESA’s Mars Express orbiter. NASA also sent the Phoenix lander to Mars in 2008 to confirm the findings made by the Mars Odyssey orbiter, which resulted in it finding and analyzing buried water ice located at 68° north latitude.

However, the eight scarps that were detected in the MRO data directly exposed this subsurface ice for the first time. As Shane Byrne, the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory and a co-author on the study, indicated:

“The discovery reported today gives us surprising windows where we can see right into these thick underground sheets of ice. It’s like having one of those ant farms where you can see through the glass on the side to learn about what’s usually hidden beneath the ground.”

These studies would also help resolve a mystery about how Mars’ climate changes over time. Today, Earth and Mars have similarly-tiled axes, with Mars’ axis tilted at 25.19° compared to Earth’s 23.439°. However, this has changed considerably over the course of eons, and scientists have wondered how increases and decreases could result in seasonal changes.

Artist’s impression of glaciers that may have existed on the surface of Mars in the past. Credit: NASA/Caltech/JPL/UTA/UA/MSSS/ESA/DLR Eric M. De Jong, Ali Safaeinili, Jason Craig, Mike Stetson, Koji Kuramura, John W. Holt

Basically, during periods where Mars’ tilt was greater, climate conditions may have favored a buildup of ice in the middle-latitudes. Based on banding and color variations, Dundas and his colleagues have suggested that layers in the eight observed regions were deposited in different proportions and with varying amounts of dust based on varying climate conditions.

As Leslie Tamppari, the MRO Deputy Project Scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said:

“If you had a mission at one of these sites, sampling the layers going down the scarp, you could get a detailed climate history of Mars. It’s part of the whole story of what happens to water on Mars over time: Where does it go? When does ice accumulate? When does it recede?”

The presence of water ice in multiple locations throughout the mid-latitudes on Mars is also tremendous news for those who want to see permanent bases constructed on Mars someday. With abundant water ice just a few meters below the surface, and which is periodically exposed by erosion, it would be easily accessible. It would also mean bases need not be built in polar areas in order to have access to a source of water.

This research was made possible thanks to the coordinated use of multiple instruments on multiple Mars orbiters. It also benefited from the fact that these missions have been studying Mars for extended periods of time. The MRO has been observing Mars for 11 years now, while the Mars Odyssey probe has been doing so for 16. What they have managed to reveal in that time has provided all kinds of opportunities for future missions to the surface.

Further Reading: NASA, Science

Astronomers Figure Out How Black Holes Can Blast Out Relativistic Jets of Material Across Light Years of Space

Artist's impression of the relativistic jet emanating from a black hole. Credit: Northwestern University

Black holes have been an endless source of fascination ever since Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity predicted their existence. In the past 100 years, the study of black holes has advanced considerably, but the awe and mystery of these objects remains. For instance, scientists have noted that in some cases, black holes have massive jets of charged particles emanating from them that extend for millions of light years.

These “relativistic jets” – so-named because they propel charged particles at a fraction of the speed of light – have puzzled astronomers for years. But thanks to a recent study conducted by an international team of researchers, new insight has been gained into these jets. Consistent with General Relativity, the researchers showed that these jets gradually precess (i.e. change direction) as a result of space-time being dragged into the rotation of the black hole.

Their study, titled “Formation of Precessing Jets by Tilted Black Hole Discs in 3D General Relativistic MHD Simulations“, recently appeared in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. The team consisted of members from the Anton Pannekoek Institute for Astronomy at the University of Amsterdam and a professor from the Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) at Northwestern University.

For the sake of their study, the team conducted simulations using the Blue Waters supercomputer at the University of Illinois. The simulations they conducted were the first ever to model the behavior of relativistic jets coming from Supermassive Black Holes (SMBHs). With close to a billion computational cells, it was also the highest-resolution simulation of an accreting black hole ever achieved.

As Alexander Tchekhovskoy, an assistant professor of physics and astronomy at Northwestern’s Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences, explained in a recent Northwestern Now press release:

“Understanding how rotating black holes drag the space-time around them and how this process affects what we see through the telescopes remains a crucial, difficult-to-crack puzzle. Fortunately, the breakthroughs in code development and leaps in supercomputer architecture are bringing us ever closer to finding the answers.”

Much like all Supermassive Black Holes, rapidly spinning SMBHs regularly engulf (aka. accrete) matter. However, rapidly spinning black holes are also known for the way they emit energy in the form of relativistic jets. The matter that feeds these black holes forms a rotating disk around them – aka. an accretion disk – which is characterized by hot, energized gas and magnetic field lines.

It is the presence of these field lines that allows black holes to propel energy in the form of these jets. Because these jets are so large, they are easier to study than the black holes themselves. In so doing, astronomers are able to understand how quickly the direction of these jets change, which reveals things about the rotation of the black holes themselves – such as the orientation and size of their rotating disks.

Advanced computer simulations are necessary when it comes to the study of black holes, largely because they are not observable in visible light and are typically very far away. For instance, the closest SMBH to Earth is Sagittarius A*, which is located about 26,000 light-years away at the center of our galaxy. As such, simulations are the only way to determine how a highly complex system like a black hole operates.

In previous simulations, scientists operated under the assumption that black hole disks were aligned. However, most SMBHs have been found to have tilted disks – i.e. the disks rotate around a separate axis than the black hole itself. This study was therefore seminal in that it showed how disks can change direction relative to their black hole, leading to precessing jets that periodically change their direction.

This was previously unknown because of the incredibly amount of computing power that is needed to construct 3-D simulations of the region surrounding a rapidly spinning black hole. With the support of a National Science Foundation (NSF) grant, the team was able to achieve this by using the Blue Waters, one of the largest supercomputers in the world.

Detection of an unusually bright X-Ray flare from Sagittarius A*, a supermassive black hole in the center of the Milky Way galaxy. Credit: NASA/CXC/Stanford/I. Zhuravleva et al.

With this supercomputer at their disposal, the team was able to construct the first black hole simulation code, which they accelerated using graphical processing units (GPUs). Thanks to this combination, the team was able to carry out simulations that had the highest level of resolution ever achieved – i.e. close to a billion computational cells. As Tchekhovskoy explained:

“The high resolution allowed us, for the first time, to ensure that small-scale turbulent disk motions are accurately captured in our models. To our surprise, these motions turned out to be so strong that they caused the disk to fatten up and the disk precession to stop. This suggests that precession can come about in bursts.”

The precession of relativistic jets could explain why light fluctuations have been observed coming from around black holes in the past – which are known as quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). These beams, which were first discovered by Michiel van der Klis (one of the co-authors on the study), operate in much the same way as a quasar’s beams, which appear to have a strobing effect.

This study is one of many that is being conducting on rotating black holes around the world, the purpose of which is to gain a better understanding about recent discoveries like gravitational waves, which are caused by the merger of black holes. These studies are also being applied to observations from the Event Horizon Telescope, which captured the first images of Sagittarius A*’s shadow. What they will reveal is sure to excite and amaze, and potentially deepen the mystery of black holes.

In the past century, the study of black holes has advanced considerably – from the purely theoretical, to indirect studies of the effects they have on surrounding matter, to the study of gravitational waves themselves. Perhaps one day, we might actually be able to study them directly or (if it’s not too much to hope for) peer directly inside them!

Further Reading: Northwestern Now, MNRAS

China Says it Still has Control Over Tiangong-1 and Can Decide Where It’ll Crash

An artist's illustration of China's uncrewed Tiangzhou-1 cargo ship in orbit. Credit: China Manned Space Agency

The Tiangong-1 space station has been the subject of a lot of interest lately. Though its mission was meant to end in 2013, the China National Space Agency extended its service until 2016. In September of 2017, after much speculation from the international community, the Agency acknowledged that the station’s orbit was degrading and that it would fall to Earth later in the year.

Based on updates from satellite trackers, it has been indicated that Tianglong-1 will likely reenter our atmosphere in March of 2018, with the possibility of debris making it to the surface. However, according to a statement made by a top engineer at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASTC), reports that the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) has lost control of the space station have been wildly exaggerated.

The statement came from Zhu Congpeng, a top engineer at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASTC). As he was quoted as saying to the Science and Technology Daily newspaper – a state-backed Chinese science journal – the CNSA is still in control of the space station, it’s reentry will be controlled, and it will not pose a threat to the environment or any population centers.

Artist’s illustration of China’s 8-ton Tiangong-1 space station, which is expected to fall to Earth in late 2017. Credit: CMSE

Previously, the CNSA claimed that the majority of the station would burn up in orbit, with only small pieces falling to the Earth. But according to Zhu Congpeng’s statement, when the station burns up in the atmosphere, the remaining debris will not jeopardize people, infrastructure or the environment anywhere on the surface. As Zhu Congpeng stated:

“We have been continuously monitoring Tiangong-1 and expect to allow it to fall within the first half of this year. It will burn up on entering the atmosphere and the remaining wreckage will fall into a designated area of the sea, without endangering the surface.”

As with previous missions – like the Mir space station, the Russian Progress spacecraft, and NASA’s Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory – the designated crash site is a deep-sea area in the South Pacific known as the “spacecraft cemetery”. As a further indication that the CNSA is still in control of Tiangong-1, Zhu claimed that the CNSA has been constantly monitoring the space station since the end of its mission.

“The latest bulletin shows that on December 17-24, 2017, Temple One runs on an orbit with an average height of about 286.5 kilometers (height of about 272.6 kilometers near perigee, height of about 300.4 kilometers at apogee and inclination of about 42.85 degrees), attitude stability,” he said. “There is no abnormal morphology.”

The Aerospace Corporations predicted reentry for Tiangong-1. Credit: aerospace.org

He also emphasized that the station’s reentry was delayed until September in order to ensure the the wreckage would fall into the South Pacific. In other words, the position of Tiangong-1 is something the Chinese have been monitoring closely, and they will continue to do so when it reenters the atmosphere this coming March. This latest statement comes on the heels of statements made by both China’s manned space engineering office and the Aerospace Corporation, which appeared to offer a different appraisal.

Back in mid-September, Wu Ping – the deputy director of China’s manned space engineering office – stated at a press conference that there was some chance that debris would land on Earth. While she was insistent that the odds of any debris surviving the passage through Earth’s atmosphere were minimal, it did suggest that the reentry would be uncontrolled.

This echoed the comprehensive report recently issued by the Aerospace Corporation, which stated that the Chinese space agency was unlikely to remain in control of Tiangong-1’s for the entirety of its reentry. Much like Wu, they also emphasized that the majority of the station would burn up on reentry and that it was unlikely that any debris would make it to the surface and cause damage.

As such, its not entirely clear if the reentry will be entirely controlled or not. But even if it should prove to be the latter, there is little reason to worry. As the Aerospace Corporation stated in their report:

“[T]he probability that a specific person (i.e., you) will be struck by Tiangong-1 debris is about one million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot. In the history of spaceflight, no known person has ever been harmed by reentering space debris. Only one person has ever been recorded as being hit by a piece of space debris and, fortunately, she was not injured.”

Banxing-2 snaps Tiangong-2 and Shenzhou-11 using a fisheye camera. Credit: Chinese Academy of Sciences

On top of that, the European Space Agency’s Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) will also be monitoring the reentry closely. They’ll also be using the occasion to conduct a test campaign designed to improve the accuracy of reentry predictions. And so far, all their predictions indicate that come March, people on Earth will be safe from falling debris.

So if you happen to live close to the equator, this coming March is sure to be an exciting time for sky-watchers! And if there’s any chance of debris landing where you live, you can sure you’ll hear about it well in advance.

 

Further Reading: Independent, STDaily

I Didn’t Realize the Scale of Their Rocket Program. China is Planning More than 40 Space Launches in 2018

The first Long March 5 rocket being rolled out for launch at Wenchang in late October 2016. Credit: Su Dong/China Daily

It’s no secret that China’s growth in the past few decades has been reflected in space. In addition to the country’s growing economic power and international influence, it has also made some very impressive strides in terms of its space program. This includes the development of the Long March rocket family, the deployment of their first space station, and the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program (CLEP) – aka. the Chang’e program.

Given all that, one would not be surprised to learn that China has some big plans for 2018. But as the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) announced last Tuesday (on January 2nd, 2018), they intend to double the number of launches they conducted in 2017. In total, the CASC plans to mount over 40 launches, which will include the Long March 5 returning to flight, the Chang’e 4 mission, and the deployment of multiple satellites.

In 2017, China hoped to conduct around 30 launches, which would consist of the launch of a new Tianzhoui-1 cargo craft to the Tiangong-2 space lab and the deployment of the Chang’e 5 lunar sample return mission. However, the latter mission was postponed after the Long March 5 rocket that would have carried it to space failed during launch. As such, the Chang’e 5 mission is now expected to launch next year.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) conference that took place on Jan. 2nd, 2018. Credit: spacechina.com

That failed launch also pushed back the next flight of Long March 5, which had conducted its maiden flight in November of 2016. In the end, China closed the year with 18 launches, which was four less than the national record it set in 2016 – 22 launches. It also came in third behind the United States with 29 launches (all of which were successful) and Russia’s 20 launches (19 of which were successful).

Looking to not be left behind again, the CASC hopes to mount 35 launches in 2018. Meanwhile, the China Aerospace Science Industry Corporation (CASIC) – a defense contractor, missile maker and sister company of CASC – will carry out a number of missions through its subsidiary, ExPace. These will include four Kuaizhou-1A rocket launches in one week and the maiden flight of the larger Kuaizhou-11 rocket.

In addition, Landspace Technology – a Beijing-based private aerospace company – is also expected to debut its LandSpace-1 rocket this year. In January of 2017, Landspace signed a contract with Denmark-based satellite manufacturer GOMspace to become the first Chinese company to develop its own commercial rockets that would provide services to the international marketplace.

But of course, the highlights of this year’s launches will be the Long March 5’s return to service, and the launch of the Chang’e 4 mission. Unlike the previous Chang’e missions, Chang’e 4 will be China’s first attempt to mount a lunar mission that involves a soft landing. The mission will consist of a relay orbiter, a lander and a rover, the primary purpose of which will be to explore the geology of the South Pole-Aitken Basin.

China’s Chang’e 4 mission will land on the far side of the Moon and conduct studies on the South Pole-Aitken Basin. Credit: NASA Goddard

For decades, this basin has been a source of fascination for scientists; and in recent years, multiple missions have confirmed the existence of water ice in the region. Determining the extent of the water ice is one of the main focuses of the rover mission component. However, the lander will also to be equipped with an aluminum case filled with insects and plants that will test the effects of lunar gravity on terrestrial organisms.

These studies will play a key role in China’s long-term plans to mount crewed missions to the Moon, and the possible construction of a lunar outpost. In recent years, China has indicated that it may be working with the European Space Agency to create this outpost, which the ESA has described as an “international Moon village” that will be the spiritual successor to the ISS.

The proposed launch of the Long March 5 is also expected to be a major event. As China’s largest and most powerful launch vehicle, this rocket will be responsible for launching heavy satellites, modules of the future Chinese space station, and eventual interplanetary missions. These include crewed missions to Mars, which China hopes to mount between the 2040s and 2060s.

According to the GB times, no details about the Long March 5’s return to flight mission were revealed, but there have apparently been indications that it will involve the large Dongfanghong-5 (DFH-5) satellite bus. In addition, no mentions have been made of when the Long March 5B will begin conducting missions to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), though this remains a possibility for either 2018 or 2019.

The second flight of the Long March 5 lifting off from Wenchang on July 2nd, 2017. Credit: CNS

Other expected missions of note include the deployment of more than 10 Beidou GNSS satellites – which are basically the Chinese version of GPS satellites –  to Medium Earth Orbits (MEOs). A number of other satellites will be sent into orbit, ranging from Earth and ocean observation to weather and telecommunications satellites. All in all, 2018 will be a very busy year for the Chinese space program!

One of the hallmarks of the modern space age is the way in which emerging powers are taking part like never before. This of course includes China, whose presence in space has mirrored their rise in terms of global affairs. At the same time, the Indian Space Research Organization (IRSO), the European Space Agency, JAXA, the Canadian Space Agency, the South African Space Agency, and many others have been making their presence felt as well.

In short, space exploration is no longer the province of two major superpowers. And in the future, when crewed interplanetary missions and (fingers crossed!) the creation of colonies on other planets becomes a reality, it will likely entail a huge degree of international cooperation and public-private partnerships.

Further Reading: GB Times, Space China

Weekly Space Hangout – Jan 10, 2018: Tim Dodd, Everyday Astronaut

Hosts:
Fraser Cain (universetoday.com / @fcain)
Dr. Paul M. Sutter (pmsutter.com / @PaulMattSutter)
Dr. Kimberly Cartier (KimberlyCartier.org / @AstroKimCartier )
Dr. Morgan Rehnberg (MorganRehnberg.com / @MorganRehnberg & ChartYourWorld.org)

Special Guest:
Tim Dodd created the Everyday Astronaut project in 2013 when he found himself the lone bidder of a Russian flight suit. Tim is a professional photographer and space and science communicator based out of Cedar Falls, Iowa. The majority of his career has been spent shooting weddings, taking him to 120 different weddings in 15 states and 3 countries. His most recent works are in the spaceflight realm, shooting rockets at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center for www.SpaceFlightnow.com.

Announcements:

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The Ozone Hole is Definitely Recovering

A view of Earth's atmosphere from space. Credit: NASA

The ozone layer is a integral part of what makes Earth habitable. This region of the stratosphere is responsible for absorbing the majority of the Sun’s ultraviolet radiation, thus ensuring terrestrial organisms are not irradiated. Since the 1970s, scientists became aware of a steady decline in this layer around the southern polar region, along with and a major seasonal decrease. This latter phenomena, known as the “ozone hole”, has been a major concern for decades.

Attempts to remedy this situation have focused on cutting the use of industrial chemicals, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These efforts culminated with the signing of the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which called for the complete phasing out of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). And according to recent study by a team of NASA scientists, the ozone hole is showing signs of significant recovery as a result.

The study, titled “Decline in Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Lower Stratospheric Chlorine Determined From Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations“, recently appeared in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters. The study was led by Susan E Strahan and co-authored by Anne R. Douglass, two research scientists with NASA Goddard’s Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory.

Artist’s impression of the Aura satellite. Credit: NASA

For the sake of their study, the team consulted data from NASA’s Aura satellite, which has been monitoring the southern polar region since 2005. Having launched in 2004, the purpose of the Aura satellite was to conduct measurements of ozone, aerosols and key gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. And according to the readings it has gathered since 2005, the reductions in the use of CFCs has led to a 20% decrease in ozone depletion.

Simply put, CFCs are long-lived chemical compounds that are made up of carbon, chlorine, and fluorine. Since the latter half of the 20th century, they have been used in a number of industrial applications such as refrigeration (as Freon), in chemical aerosols (as propellants), and as solvents. Eventually, these chemicals rise into the stratosphere where they become subject to UV radiation and are broken down into chlorine atoms.

These chlorine atoms play havoc with the ozone layer, where they catalyze to form oxygen gas (O²). This activity begins around July during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, when the Sun’s rays cause an increase in the catalyzing of CFC-derived chlorine and bromine atoms in the atmosphere. By September (i.e. spring in the southern hemisphere), the activity peaks, resulting on the “ozone hole” that scientists first noted in 1985.

In the past, statistical analysis studies have indicated that ozone depletion has increased since. However, this study – which was the first to use measurements of the chemical composition inside the ozone hole – indicated that ozone depletion is decreasing. What’s more, it indicated that the decrease is caused by the decline in CFC use.

As Susan Strahan explained in a recent NASA press release, “We see very clearly that chlorine from CFCs is going down in the ozone hole, and that less ozone depletion is occurring because of it.” To determine how ozone and other chemicals in the atmosphere have changed from year to year, scientists have relied on data from the Aura satellite’s Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS).

Unlike other instruments that rely on sunlight to obtain spectra from atmospheric gases, this instrument measures these gases respective microwave emissions. As a result, it can measure trace gases over Antarctica during a key time of the year – when the southern hemisphere is experiencing winter and weather in the stratosphere is calm and temperatures are low and stable.

The change in ozone levels from the beginning to the end of Southern Hemisphere’s winter (early July to mid-September) was computed daily using MLS measurements every year from 2005 to 2016. While these measurements indicated a decrease in ozone loss, Strahan and Douglass wanted to be certain reductions in the use of CFCs was what was responsible.

This they did by looking for telltale signs of hydrochloric acid in the MLS data, which chlorine will form by reacting with methane (but only when all available ozone is depleted). As Strahan explained:

“During this period, Antarctic temperatures are always very low, so the rate of ozone destruction depends mostly on how much chlorine there is. This is when we want to measure ozone loss… By around mid-October, all the chlorine compounds are conveniently converted into one gas, so by measuring hydrochloric acid we have a good measurement of the total chlorine.”

Images from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite showing ozone fluctuations between 2010 and 2011. Credit: NASA/Rob Simmon

Another hint came in the form of nitrous oxide levels, another long-lived gas that behaves just like CFCs in much of the stratosphere – but which is not in decline like CFCs. If CFCs in the stratosphere were decreasing, it would mean that less chlorine would be present compared to nitrous oxide. By comparing MLS measurements of hydrochloric acid and nitrous oxide each year, they determined that chlorine levels were declining by about 0.8 percent per year.

As Strahan indicated, this added up to a 20% decrease from 2005 to 2016, which was consistent with what they expected. “This is very close to what our model predicts we should see for this amount of chlorine decline,” she said. “This gives us confidence that the decrease in ozone depletion through mid-September shown by MLS data is due to declining levels of chlorine coming from CFCs. But we’re not yet seeing a clear decrease in the size of the ozone hole because that’s controlled mainly by temperature after mid-September, which varies a lot from year to year.”

This process of recovery is expected to continue as CFCs gradually leave the atmosphere, though scientists anticipate that a complete recovery will take decades. This is very good news considering that the ozone hole was discovered only about three decades ago, and ozone levels began to stabilize about a decade later. Still, as Douglass explained, a full recovery is not likely to take place until the latter half of this century:

“CFCs have lifetimes from 50 to 100 years, so they linger in the atmosphere for a very long time. As far as the ozone hole being gone, we’re looking at 2060 or 2080. And even then there might still be a small hole.”

The Montreal Protocol is often touted as an example of effective international climate action, and for good reason. The Protocol was struck thirteen years after the scientific consensus on ozone depletion was reached, and just two years after the rather alarming discovery of the ozone hole. And in the years that followed, the signatories remained committed to their goals and achieved target reductions.

In the future, it is hoped that similar action can be achieved on climate change, which has been subject to delays and resistance for many years now. But as the case of the ozone hole demonstrates, international action can address a problem before it is too late.

Further Reading: NASA

The Night Sky Magic of the Atacama

night sky above the atacama
Thousands of stars glitter in the black skies above the bone-dry desert of the Atacama in northern Chile. Photo credit: Gerhard Hüdepohl/atacamaphoto.com.

There’s nothing an astronomer – whether professional or amateur – loves more than a clear dark night sky away from the city lights. Outside the glare and glow and cloud cover that most of us experience every day, the night sky comes alive with a life of its own.

Thousands upon countless thousands of glittering jewels – each individual star a pinprick of light set against the velvet-smooth blackness of the deeper void. The arching band of the Milky Way, itself host to billions more stars so far away that we can only see their combined light from our vantage point. The familiar constellations, proudly showing their true character, drawing the eye and the mind to the ancient tales spun about them.

There are few places left in the world to see the sky as our ancestors did; to gaze in wonder at the celestial dome and feel the weight of billions of years of cosmic history hanging above us. Thankfully the International Dark Sky Association is working to preserve what’s left of the true night sky, and they’ve rightfully marked northern Chile to preserve for posterity.

Continue reading “The Night Sky Magic of the Atacama”

Messier 65 – the NGC 3623 Intermediate Spiral Galaxy

Hubble image of the intermediate spiral galaxy known as Messier 65, which is located in the Leo constellation. Credit: ESA/Hubble & NASA

Welcome back to Messier Monday! Today, we continue in our tribute to our dear friend, Tammy Plotner, by looking at the intermediate spiral galaxy known as Messier 65.

In the 18th century, while searching the night sky for comets, French astronomer Charles Messier kept noting the presence of fixed, diffuse objects he initially mistook for comets. In time, he would come to compile a list of approximately 100 of these objects, hoping to prevent other astronomers from making the same mistake. This list – known as the Messier Catalog – would go on to become one of the most influential catalogs of Deep Sky Objects.

One of these objects is the intermediate spiral galaxy known as Messier 65 (aka. NGC 3623), which is located about 35 million light-years from Earth in the Leo constellation. Along with with Messier 66 and NGC 3628, it is part of a small group of galaxies known as the Leo Triplet, which makes it one of the most popular targets among amateur astronomers.

Description:

Enjoying life some 35 million light years from the Milky Way, the group known as the “Leo Trio” is home to bright galaxy Messier 65 – the westernmost of the two M objects. To the casual observer, it looks like a very normal spiral galaxy and thus its classification as Sa – but M65 is a galaxy which walks on the borderline. Why? Because of close gravitational interaction with its nearby neighbors. Who can withstand the draw of gravity?!

The Messier 65 intermediate spiral galaxy. Credit: ESO/INAF-VST/OmegaCAM/Astro-WISE/Kapteyn Institute

Chances are very good that Messier 65 is even quite a bit larger than we see optically as well. As E. Burbidge (et al) said in a 1961 study:

“A fragmentary rotation-curve for NGC 3623 was obtained from measures of the absorption features Ca ii X 3968 and Na I X 5893 and the emission lines [N ii] X 6583 and Ha. The measures from two outer regions are discordant if only circular velocities are assumed, and it is concluded that the measured velocity of one of these regions-the only prominent H ii region in the galaxy-has a large non-circular component. The approximate mass derived from the velocity in the outer arm relative to the center is 1.4 X 1011 M0. It is concluded that the total mass is larger than this, perhaps between 2 and 3 X 1011 M0. This would suggest that the mass-to-light ratio in solar units (photographic) for this galaxy, which is intermediate in type between Sa and Sb, lies between 10 and 20.”

But just how much interaction has been going on between the three galaxies which coexist so closely? Sometimes it takes things like studying in multicolor photometry data to understand. As Zhiyu Duan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Astronomical Observatory indicated in a 2006 study:

“By comparing the observed SEDs of each part of the galaxies with the theoretical ones generated by instantaneous burst evolutionary synthesis models with different metallicities (Z = 0.0001, 0.008, 0.02, and 0.05), two-dimensional relative age distribution maps of the three galaxies were obtained. NGC 3623 exhibits a very weak age gradient from the bulge to the disk. This gradient is absent in NGC 3627. The ages of the dominant stellar populations of NGC 3627 and NGC 3628 are consistent, and this consistency is model independent (0.5-0.6 Gyr, Z = 0.02), but the ages of NGC 3623 are systematically older (0.7-0.9 Gyr, Z = 0.02). The results indicate that NGC 3627 and NGC 3628 have undergone synchronous evolution and that the interaction has likely triggered starbursts in both galaxies. The results indicate that NGC 3627 and NGC 3628 have undergone synchronous evolution and that the interaction has likely triggered starbursts in both galaxies. For NGC 3623, however, the weak age gradient may indicate recent star formation in its bulge, which has caused its color to turn blue. Evidence is found for a potential bar existing in the bulge of NGC 3623, and my results support the view that NGC 3623 does interact with NGC 3627 and NGC 3628.”

Messier 65, as imaged by the Hubble Space Telescope. Credit: NASA,/ESA/Hubble Space Telescope

So, let’s try looking at things in a slightly different color – integral-field spectroscopy. As V.L. Afanasiev (et al) said in a 2004 study:

“The mean ages of their circumnuclear stellar populations are quite different, and the magnesium overabundance of the nucleus in NGC 3627 is evidence for a very brief last star formation event 1 Gyr ago whereas the evolution of the central part of NGC 3623 looks more quiescent. In the center of NGC 3627 we observe noticeable gas radial motions, and the stars and the ionized gas in the center of NGC 3623 demonstrate more or less stable rotation. However, NGC 3623 has a chemically distinct core – a relic of a past star formation burst – which is shaped as a compact, dynamically cold stellar disk with a radius of ?250-350 pc which has been formed not later than 5 Gyr ago.”

Now, let’s take a look at that gas – and the properties for the gases that exist and co-exist in the galactic trio. As David Hogg (et al) explained in a 2001 study:

“We have studied the distribution of cool, warm, and hot interstellar matter in three of the nearest bright Sa galaxies. New X-ray data for NGC 1291, the object with the most prominent bulge, confirm earlier results that the ISM in the bulge is dominated by hot gas. NGC 3623 has a lesser amount of hot gas in the bulge but has both molecular gas and ionized hydrogen in the central regions. NGC 2775 has the least prominent bulge; its X-ray emission is consistent with an origin in X-ray binary stars, and there is a strict upper limit on the amount of molecular present in the bulge. All three galaxies have a ring of neutral hydrogen in the disk. NGC 3623 and NGC 2775 each have in addition a molecular ring coincident with the hydrogen ring. We conclude that even within the morphological class Sa there can be significant differences in the gas content of the bulge, with the more massive bulges being likely to contain hot, X-ray–emitting gas. We discuss the possibility that the X-ray gas is part of a cooling flow in which cool gas is produced in the nucleus.”

The Leo Triplet, with M65 at the upper right, M66 at the lower right, and NGC 3628 at the upper left. Credit: Scott Anttila. Credit: Wikipedia Commons/Anttler

Even more studies have been done to take a look a disc properties associated with M65. According to M. Bureau (et al);

“NGC 3623 (M 65) is another highly-inclined galaxy in the Leo group, but it is of much later type than NGC 3377, SABa(rs). It is part of the Leo triplet with NGC 3627 and NGC 3628 but does not appear to be interacting. NGC 3623’s kinematics an has barely been studied and observations provide a glimpse of its dynamics. The large-scale velocity reveals minor-axis rotation, in agreement with the presence of a bar. In addition, a quasi edge-on disk is present in the center, where the iso velocity contours flatten out abruptly.”

History of Observation:

Both M65 and M66 were discovered on the same night – March 1, 1780 – by Charles Messier, who described M65 as “Nebula discovered in Leo: It is very faint and contains no star.” Sir William Herschel would later observe M65 as well, describing it as “A very brilliant nebula extended in the meridian, about 12′ long. It has a bright nucleus, the light of which suddenly diminishes on its border, and two opposite very faint branches.”

However, it would be Lord Rosse who would be the first to see structure: “March 31, 1848. – A curious nebula with a bright nucleus; resolvable; a spiral or annular arrangement about it; no other portion of the nebula resolved. Observed April 1, 1848 and April 3, with the same results.”

Locating Messier 65:

Even though you might think by its apparent visual magnitude that M65 wouldn’t be visible in small binoculars, you’d be wrong. Surprisingly enough, thanks to its large size and high surface brightness, this particular galaxy is very easy to spot directly between Iota and Theta Leonis. In even 5X30 binoculars under good conditions you’ll easy see both it and M66 as two distinct gray ovals.

Messier 65 location. Credit: IAU and Sky & Telescope magazine (Roger Sinnott & Rick Fienberg)

A small telescope will begin to bring out structure in both of these bright and wonderful galaxies, but to get a hint at the “Trio” you’ll need at least 6″ in aperture and a good dark night. If you don’t spot them right away in binoculars, don’t be disappointed – this means you probably don’t have good sky conditions and try again on a more transparent night. The pair is well suited to modestly moonlit nights with larger telescopes.

Capture one of the Trio tonight! And here are the quick facts on this Messier Object:

Object Name: Messier 65
Alternative Designations: M65, NGC 3623, (a member of the) Leo Trio, Leo Triplet
Object Type: Type Sa Spiral Galaxy
Constellation: Leo
Right Ascension: 11 : 18.9 (h:m)
Declination: +13 : 05 (deg:m)
Distance: 35000 (kly)
Visual Brightness: 9.3 (mag)
Apparent Dimension: 8×1.5 (arc min)

We have written many interesting articles about Messier Objects here at Universe Today. Here’s Tammy Plotner’s Introduction to the Messier ObjectsM1 – The Crab Nebula, and David Dickison’s articles on the 2013 and 2014 Messier Marathons.

Be to sure to check out our complete Messier Catalog. And for more information, check out the SEDS Messier Database.

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