In 1926, famed astronomer Edwin Hubble developed his morphological classification scheme for galaxies. This method divided galaxies into three basic groups – Elliptical, Spiral and Lenticular – based on their shapes. Since then, astronomers have devoted considerable time and effort in an attempt to determine how galaxies have evolved over the course of billions of years to become these shapes.
One of th most widely-accepted theories is that galaxies changed by merging, where smaller clouds of stars – bound by mutual gravity – came together, altering the size and shape of a galaxy over time. However, a new study by an international team of researchers has revealed that galaxies could actually assumed their modern shapes through the formation of new stars within their centers.
This involved using ground-based telescopes to study 25 galaxies that were at a distance of about 11 billion light-years from Earth. At this distance, the team was seeing what these galaxies looked like 11 billion years ago, or roughly 3 billion years after the Big Bang. This early epoch coincides with a period of peak galaxy formation in the Universe, when the foundations of most galaxies were being formed. As Dr. Tadaki indicated in a NAOJ press release:
“Massive elliptical galaxies are believed to be formed from collisions of disk galaxies. But, it is uncertain whether all the elliptical galaxies have experienced galaxy collision. There may be an alternative path.”
Capturing the faint light of these distant galaxies was no easy task and the team needed three ground-based telescopes to resolve them properly. They began by using the NAOJ’s 8.2-m Subaru Telescope in Hawaii to pick out the 25 galaxies in this epoch. Then they targeted them for observations with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in Chile.
Whereas the HST captured light from stars to discern the shape of the galaxies (as they existed 11 billion years ago), the ALMA array observed submillimeter waves emitted by the cold clouds of dust and gas – where new stars are being formed. By combining the two, they were able to complete a detailed picture of how these galaxies looked 11 billion years ago when their shapes were still evolving.
What they found was rather telling. The HST images indicated that early galaxies were dominated by a disk component, as opposed to the central bulge feature we’ve come to associate with spiral and lenticular galaxies. Meanwhile, the ALMA images showed that there were massive reservoirs of gas and dust near the centers of these galaxies, which coincided with a very high rate of star formation.
To rule out alternate possibility that this intense star formation was being caused by mergers, the team also used data from the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) – located at the Paranal Observatory in Chile – to confirm that there were no indications of massive galaxy collisions taking place at the time. As Dr. Tadaki explained:
“Here, we obtained firm evidence that dense galactic cores can be formed without galaxy collisions. They can also be formed by intense star formation in the heart of the galaxy.”
These findings could lead astronomers to rethink their current theories about galactic evolution and howthey came to adopt features like a central bulge and spiral arms. It could also lead to a rethink of our models regarding cosmic evolution, not to mention the history of own galaxy. Who knows? It might even cause astronomers to rethink what might happen in a few billion years, when the Milky Way is set to collide with the Andromeda Galaxy.
As always, the further we probe into the Universe, the more it reveals. With every revelation that does not fit our expectations, our hypotheses are forced to undergo revision.
When the Cassini spacecraft arrived around Saturn on July 1st, 2004, it became the fourth space probe to visit the system. But unlike the Pioneer 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 probes, the Cassini mission was the first to establish orbit around the planet for the sake of conducting long-term research. Since that time, the spacecraft and its accompanying probe – the Huygens lander – have revealed a startling amount about this system.
On Friday, September 15th, the Cassini mission will official end as the spacecraft descends into Saturn’s atmosphere. In part of this final maneuver, Cassini recently conducted one last distant flyby of Titan. This flyby is being referred to informally as “the goodbye kiss” by mission engineers, since it is providing the gravitational push necessary to send the spacecraft into Saturn’s upper atmosphere, where it will burn up.
In the course of this flyby, the spacecraft made its closest approach to Titan on Tuesday, September 12th, at 12:04 p.m. PDT (3:04 p.m. EDT), passing within 119,049 kilometers (73,974 mi) of the moon’s surface. The maneuver was designed to slow the probe down and lower the altitude of its orbit around the planet, which will cause it to descend into Saturn’s atmosphere in a few day’s time.
The flyby also served as an opportunity to collect some final pictures and data on Saturn’s largest moon, which has been a major focal point for much of the Cassini-Huygens mission. These will all be transmitted back to Earth at 18:19 PDT (21:19 EDT) when the spacecraft makes contact, and navigators will use this opportunity to confirm that Cassini is on course for its final dive.
All told, the spacecraft made hundreds of passes over Titan during its 13-year mission. These included a total of 127 precisely targeted encounters at close and far range (like this latest flyby). As Cassini Project Manager Earl Maize, from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in a NASA press statement:
“Cassini has been in a long-term relationship with Titan, with a new rendezvous nearly every month for more than a decade. This final encounter is something of a bittersweet goodbye, but as it has done throughout the mission, Titan’s gravity is once again sending Cassini where we need it to go.”
In the course of making its many flybys, the Cassini spacecraft revealed a great deal about the composition of Titan’s atmosphere, its methane cycle (similar to Earth’s hydrological cycle) and the kinds of weather it experiences in its polar regions. The probe also provided high-resolution radar images of Titan’s surface, which included topography and images of its northern methane lakes.
Cassini’s first flyby of Titan took place on July 2nd, 2004 – a day after the spacecraft’s orbital insertion – where it approached to within 339,000 km (211,000 mi) of the moon’s surface. On December 25th, 2004, Cassini released the Huygens lander into the planet’s atmosphere. The probe touched down on January 14th, 2005, taking hundreds of pictures of the moon’s surface in the process.
In November of 2016, the spacecraft began the Grand Finale phase of its mission, where it would make 22 orbits between Saturn and its rings. This phase began with a flyby of Titan that took it to the gateway of Saturn’s’ F-ring, the outermost and perhaps most active ring around Saturn. This was followed by a final close flyby of Titan on April 22nd, 2017, taking it to within 979 km (608 mi) of the moon’s surface.
Throughout its mission, Cassini also revealed some significant things about Saturn’s atmosphere, its hexagonal storms, its ring system, and its extensive system of moons. It even revealed previously-undiscovered moons, such as Methone, Pallene and Polydeuces. Last, but certainly not least, it conducted studies of Saturn’s moon Enceladus that revealed evidence of a interior ocean and plume activity around its southern polar region.
These discoveries are part of the reason why the probe will end its mission by plunging into Saturn’s atmosphere, about two days and 16 hours from now. This will cause the probe to burn up, thus preventing contamination of moons like Titan and Enceladus, where microbial life could possibly exist. Finding evidence of this life will be the main focus of future missions to the Saturn system, which are likely to launch in the next decade.
So long and best wishes, Cassini! You taught so much in the past decade and we hope to follow up on it very soon. We’ll all miss you when you go!
Special Guest:
This week’s guest is Dr. Claudia Lagos (@CDPLagos).
Claudia is the Research Assistant at the International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, in the University of Western Australia. Dr. Lagos is one of the core researchers for the Cosmic Dawn Centre (DAWN). Her expertise is in modelling of physical processes in galaxies, such as gas accretion onto galaxies, star formation, stellar feedback, gas accretion onto black holes, among other similar mechanisms.
Their stories this week:
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The past summer has been a pretty terrible time in terms of weather. In addition to raging fires in Canada’s western province of British Columbia, the south-eastern United States has been pounded by successive storms and hurricanes – i.e. Tropical Storm Emily and Hurricanes Franklin, Gert, Harvey and Irma. As if that wasn’t enough, solar activity has also been picking up lately, which could have a serious impact on space weather.
This past week, researchers from the University of Sheffield in the UK and Queen’s University Belfast detected the largest solar flare in 12 years. This massive burst of radiation took place on Wednesday, September 6th, and was one of three observed over a 48-hour period. While this latest solar flare is harmless to humans, it could pose a significant hazard to communications and GPS satellites.
The flare was also the eighth-largest detected since solar flare activity began to be monitored back in 1996. Like the two previous flares which took place during the same 48-hour period, this latest burst was an X-Class flare – the largest type of flare known to scientists. It occurred at 13:00 GMT (06:00 PDT; 09:00 EST) and was measured to have an energy level of X9.3.
Essentially, it erupted with the force of one billion thermonuclear bombs and drove plasma away from the surface at speeds of up to 2000 km/s (1243 mi/s). This phenomena, known as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), are known to play havoc with electronics in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). And while Earth’s magnetosphere offers protection from these events, electronic systems on the planets surface are sometimes affected as well.
As Professor Mihalis Mathioudakis, who led the project at Queen’s University Belfast, indicated in a recent University of Sheffield press statement:
“Solar flares are the most energetic events in our solar system and can have a major impact on earth. The dedication and perseverance of our early career scientists who planned and executed these observations led to the capture of this unique event and have helped to advance our knowledge in this area.”
The team was able to capture the opening moments of a solar flare’s life. This was extremely fortunate, since one of the biggest challenges of observing solar flares from ground-based telescopes is the short time-scales over which they erupt and evolve. In the case of X-class flares, they are capable of forming and reaching peak intensity in just about five minutes.
In other words, observers – who only see a small part of the sun at any one moment – must act very quickly to ensure they catch the crucial opening moments of a flare’s evolution. As Dr Chris Nelson, from the Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre (SP2RC) – who was one of the observers at the telescope – explained:
“It’s very unusual to observe the opening minutes of a flare’s life. We can only observe about 1/250th of the solar surface at any one time using the Swedish Solar Telescope, so to be in the right place at the right time requires a lot of luck. To observe the rise phases of three X-classes over two days is just unheard of.”
Another interesting thing about this flare, and the two that preceded it, was the timing. At present, astronomers expected that we were in a period of diminished solar activity. But as Dr Aaron Reid, a research fellow at at Queen’s University Belfast’s Astrophysics Research Center and a co-author on the paper, explained:
“The Sun is currently in what we call solar minimum. The number of Active Regions, where flares occur, is low, so to have X-class flares so close together is very usual. These observations can tell us how and why these flares formed so we can better predict them in the future.”
Professor Robertus von Fáy-Siebenbürgen, who leads the SP2RC, was also very enthused about the research team’s accomplishment. “We at SP2RC are very proud to have such talented scientists who can make true discoveries,” he said. “These observations are very difficult and will require hard work to fully understand what exactly has happened on the Sun.”
Predicting when and how solar flares will occur will also aid in the development of early warning and preventative measures. The is part of growing industry that seeks to protect satellites and orbital missions from harmful electromagnetic disruption. And with humanity’s presence in LEO expended to grow considerably in the coming decades, this industry is expected to become worth several billion dollars.
Yes, with everything from small satellites, space planes, commercial habitats and more space stations being deployed to space, Low Earth Orbit is expected to get pretty crowded in the coming decades. The last thing we need is for vast swaths of this machinery or – heaven forbid! – crewed spacecraft, stations and habitats to become inoperative thanks to solar flare activity.
If human beings are to truly become a space-faring race, we need to know how to predict space weather the same we do the weather here on Earth. And just like the wind, the rain, and other meteorological phenomena, we need to know when to batten down the hatches and adjust the sails.
However, according to a team of astronomers from Glasgow and Arizona, astronomers need not limit themselves to detecting waves caused by massive gravitational mergers. According to a study they recently produced, the Advanced LIGO, GEO 600, and Virgo gravitational-wave detector network could also detect the gravitational waves created by supernova. In so doing, astronomers will able to see inside the hearts of collapsing stars for the first time.
Otherwise known as Type II supernovae, CCSNe are what happens when a massive star reaches the end of its lifespan and experiences rapid collapse. This triggers a massive explosion that blows off the outer layers of the star, leaving behind a remnant neutron star that may eventually become a black hole. In order for a star to undergo such collapse, it must be at least 8 times (but no more than 40 to 50 times) the mass of the Sun.
When these types of supernovae take place, it is believed that neutrinos produced in the core transfer gravitational energy released by core collapse to the cooler outer regions of the star. Dr. Powell and her colleagues believe that this gravitational energy could be detected using current and future instruments. As they explain in their study:
“Although no CCSNe have currently been detected by gravitational-wave detectors, previous studies indicate that an advanced detector network may be sensitive to these sources out to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). A CCSN would be an ideal multi-messenger source for aLIGO and AdV, as neutrino and electromagnetic counterparts to the signal would be expected. The gravitational waves are emitted from deep inside the core of CCSNe, which may allow astrophysical parameters, such as the equation of state (EOS), to be measured from the reconstruction of the gravitational-wave signal.”
Dr. Powell and her also outline a procedure in their study that could be implemented using the Supernova model Evidence Extractor (SMEE). The team then conducted simulations using the latest three-dimensional models of gravitational-wave core collapse supernovae to determine if background noise could be eliminated and proper detection of CCSNe signals made.
As Dr. Powell explained to Universe Today via email:
“The Supernova Model Evidence Extractor (SMEE) is an algorithm that we use to determine how supernovae get the huge amount of energy they need to explode. It uses Bayesian statistics to distinguish between different possible explosion models. The first model we consider in the paper is that the explosion energy comes from the neutrinos emitted by the star. In the second model the explosion energy comes from rapid rotation and extremely strong magnetic fields.”
From this, the team concluded that in a three-detector network researchers could correctly determine the explosion mechanics for rapidly-rotating supernovae, depending on their distance. At a distance of 10 kiloparsecs (32,615 light-years) they would be able to detect signals of CCSNe with 100% accuracy, and signals at 2 kiloparsecs (6,523 light-years) with 95% accuracy.
In other words, if and when a supernova takes place in the local galaxy, the global network formed by the Advanced LIGO, Virgo and GEO 600 gravitational wave detectors would have an excellent chance of picking up on it. The detection of these signals would also allow for some groundbreaking science, enabling scientists to “see” inside of exploding stars for the first time. As Dr. Powell explained:
“The gravitational waves are emitted from deep inside the core of the star where no electromagnetic radiation can escape. This allows a gravitational wave detection to tell us information about the explosion mechanism that can not be determined with other methods. We may also be able to determine other parameters such as how rapidly the star is rotating.”
Dr. Powell, having recently completed work on her PhD will also be taking up a postdoc position with the RC Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery (OzGrav), the gravitational wave program hosted by the University of Swinburne in Australia. In the meantime, she and her colleagues will be conducting targeted searchers for supernovae that occurred during the first and seconds advanced detector observing runs.
While there are no guarantees at this point that they will find the sought-after signals that would demonstrate that supernovae are detectable, the team has high hopes. And given the possibilities that this research holds for astrophysics and astronomy, they are hardly alone!
Welcome back to Messier Monday! We continue our tribute to our dear friend, Tammy Plotner, by looking at the the globular star cluster known as Messier 56. Enjoy!
In the 18th century, while searching the night sky for comets, French astronomer Charles Messier kept noting the presence of fixed, diffuse objects in the night sky. In time, he would come to compile a list of approximately 100 of these objects, with the purpose of making sure that astronomers did not mistake them for comets. However, this list – known as the Messier Catalog – would go on to serve a more important function.
One of these objects is Messier 56, a globular star cluster located in the small northern constellation of Lyra, roughly 32,900 light years from Earth. Measuring roughly 84 light-years in diameter, this cluster has an estimated age of 13.70 billion years. It is also relatively easy to spot because of its proximity to well-known asterisms like the celestial Swan, the Northern Cross, and the bright star Vega.
Description:
Spanning about 85 light years in diameter, this incredible ball of stars is moving towards planet Earth at a speed of 145 kilometers per second… yet still remains about 32,900 light-years away. As one of the less dense of the Milky Way’s halo globulars, it is also less dense in variable stars – containing only perhaps a dozen. But out of that twelve, there a very special one… a Cepheid bright enough to be followed with amateur instruments. However, astronomers never stopped looking for the curious – and they found what they were looking for!
The CURiuos Variables Experiment (CURVE) was performed on M56 in 2008. As P. Pietrukowicz (et al) wrote of the cluster in the accompanying study:
“We surveyed a 6.5’×6.5′ field centered on the globular cluster M56 (NGC 6779) in a search for variable stars detecting seven variables, among which two objects are new identifications. One of the new variables is an RRLyrae star, the third star of that type in M56. Comparison of the new observations and old photometric data for an RV Tauri variable V6 indicates a likely period change in the star. Its slow and negative rate of -0.005±0.003 d/yr would disagree with post-AGB evolution, however this could be a result of blue-loop evolution and/or random fluctuations of the period.”
But could other things exist inside M56? Events, perhaps, like nova? As astronomer Tim O’Brien wrote:
“Classical nova outbursts are the result of thermonuclear explosions on the surface of a white dwarf star in a close binary system. Material from the other star in the system (one not unlike our own sun) falls onto the surface of the white dwarf over thousands of years. The pressure at the base of this layer of accreted material builds up until thermonuclear reactions begin explosively. An Earth’s mass or more of material is ejected from the surface of the white dwarf at speeds of a few hundred to a few thousand kilometres per second. Old novae are therefore surrounded by shells of ejected matter illuminated by the light from the central binary system.”
And as M.E.L. Hopwood (et al.) wrote in a 2000 study:
“We report the possible detection of diffuse X-ray emission in the environment of NGC 6779, and find the emission to be well aligned with the proper motion of the cluster. The position of the emission suggests we are observing heated ISM in the wake of the cluster that could be the result of an interaction between the intracluster medium and the halo gas surrounding it.”
History of Observation:
Charles Messier first discovered M56 on January 23rd, 1779. As he wrote of his discovery at the time:
“Nebula without stars, having little light; M. Messier discovered it on the same day as he found the comet of 1779, January 19. On the 23rd, he determined its position by comparing it with the star 2 Cygni, according to Flamsteed: it is near the Milky Way; and close to it is a star of 10th magnitude. M. Messier reported it on the chart of the comet of 1779.”
However, it would be Sir William Herschel who revealed its true nature in 1807. In his private notes he writes: “The 56th of the Connoiss. is a globular cluster of very compressed and very small stars. They are gradually more compressed towards the centre.” His son John would go on to observe it many times, even after cataloging it! His best description reads: “Large; round; very gradually brighter toward the middle. I see the stars which are very small and of different sizes. It fades gradually away to the borders.”
As always, it would be Admiral Smyth who would be perhaps a bit more descriptive when he included in his observing notes:
“A globular cluster, in a splendid field, between the eastern joke of Lyra’s frame and the Swan’s head: it is 5 1/4 deg distant from Beta Lyrae, on the south-east line leading to Beta Cygni, which is about 3 1/2 deg further. This object was first registered by M. Messier in 1778, and, from his imperfect means, described as a nebula of feeble light, without a star. In 1784, it was resolved by Sir William Herschel, who, on gauging, considered its profundity to be of the 344th order.”
Locating Messier 56:
Finding M56 isn’t too hard since it’s located about half-way between Beta Cygni (Albireo) and Gamma Lyrae. In both binoculars and finder scope, you will see a triangle of stars when progressing from Gamma towards the southeast that will almost point directly at it! Because M56 isn’t particularly large or bright, it does require dark skies – but makes a great object for both binoculars and small telescopes.
Enjoy this pincushion of stars! And here are the quick facts on this Messier Object to help you get started”
Object Name: Messier 56 Alternative Designations: M56, NGC 6779 Object Type: Class X Globular Cluster Constellation: Lyra Right Ascension: 19 : 16.6 (h:m) Declination: +30 : 11 (deg:m) Distance: 32.9 (kly) Visual Brightness: 8.3 (mag) Apparent Dimension: 8.8 (arc min)
Even after decades of study, Jupiter’s atmosphere continues to be something of a mystery to scientists. Consistent with the planet’s size, its atmosphere is the largest in the Solar System, spanning over 5,000 km (3,000 mi) in altitude and boasting extremes in temperature and pressure. On top of that, the planet’s atmosphere experiences the most powerful auroras in the Solar System.
Studying this phenomena has been one of the main goals of the Juno probe, which reached Jupiter on July 5th, 2016. However, after analyzing data collected by the probe’s instruments, scientists at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHUAPL) were surprised to find that Jupiter’s powerful magnetic storms do not have the same source as they do on Earth.
The study which details these findings, “Discrete and Broadband Electron Acceleration in Jupiter’s Powerful Aurora“, recently appeared in the scientific journal Nature. Led by Barry Mauk, a scientist with the JHUAPL, the team analyzed data collected by Juno’s Ultraviolet Spectrograph (UVS) and Jovian Energetic Particle Detector Instrument (JEDI) to study Jupiter’s polar regions.
As with Earth, on Jupiter, auroras are the result of intense radiation and Jupiter’s magnetic field. When this magnetosphere aligns with charged particles, it has the effect of accelerating electrons towards the atmosphere at high energy levels. In the course of examining Juno’s data, the JHUAPL team observed signatures of electrons being accelerated toward the Jovian atmosphere at energy levels of up to 400,000 electron volts.
This is roughly 10 to 30 times higher than what is experienced here on Earth, where only several thousand volts are typically needed to generate the most intense aurora. Given that Jupiter has the most powerful auroras in the Solar System, the team was not surprised to see such powerful forces at work within the planet’s atmosphere. What was surprising, however, was that this was not the source of the most intense auroras.
As Dr. Mauk, who leads the investigation team for the APL-built JEDI instrument and was the lead author on the study , explained in a JHUAPL press release:
“At Jupiter, the brightest auroras are caused by some kind of turbulent acceleration process that we do not understand very well. There are hints in our latest data indicating that as the power density of the auroral generation becomes stronger and stronger, the process becomes unstable and a new acceleration process takes over. But we’ll have to keep looking at the data.”
These findings could have significant implications for the study of Jupiter, who’s composition and atmospheric dynamics continue to be a source of mystery. It also has implications or the study of extra-solar gas giants and planetary systems. In recent decades, the study of these systems has revealed hundreds of gas giants that have ranged in size from being Neptune-like to many times the size of Jupiter (aka. “Super-Jupiters”).
These gas giants have also shown significant variations in orbit, ranging from being very close to their respective suns to very far (i.e. “Hot Jupiters” to “Cold Gas Giants”). By studying Jupiter’s ability to accelerate charged particles, astronomers will be able to make more educated guesses about space weather, radiation environments, and the risks they pose to space missions.
This will come in handy when it comes time to mount future missions to Jupiter, as well as deep-space and maybe even interstellar space. As Mauk explained:
“The highest energies that we are observing within Jupiter’s auroral regions are formidable. These energetic particles that create the auroras are part of the story in understanding Jupiter’s radiation belts, which pose such a challenge to Juno and to upcoming spacecraft missions to Jupiter under development. Engineering around the debilitating effects of radiation has always been a challenge to spacecraft engineers for missions at Earth and elsewhere in the solar system. What we learn here, and from spacecraft like NASA’s Van Allen Probes and MMS that are exploring Earth’s magnetosphere, will teach us a lot about space weather and protecting spacecraft and astronauts in harsh space environments. Comparing the processes at Jupiter and Earth is incredibly valuable in testing our ideas of how planetary physics works.”
Before the Juno mission is scheduled to wrap up (in February of 2018), the probe is likely to reveal a great many things about the planet’s composition, gravity field, magnetic field and polar magnetosphere. In so doing, it will address long-standing mysteries about how the planet formed and evolved, which will also shed light on the history of the Solar System and extra-solar systems.
TITUSVILLE/CAPE CANAVERAL, FL– NASA and Air Force officials have ordered the closure of the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station as deadly Cat 4 Hurricane Irma relentlessly targets a direct hit on Florida and forces millions of residents and tourists to evacuate catastrophic consequences coming tonight, Saturday, Sept. 9 and throughout the weekend.
The Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex also announced its closure.
The Florida Space Coast base and Visitor Complex closings were ordered just hours after SpaceX successfully launched the secretive X-37B military spaceplane to orbit for the U.S. Air Force on a Falcon 9 rocket from historic pad 39A on the Kennedy Space Center on Thursday, Sept. 7.
“NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida is closing Friday, Sept. 8 through at least Monday, Sept. 11, due to the approach of Hurricane Irma, KSC officials said.
“Irma could potentially bring heavy rain and strong winds to the spaceport. Essential personnel will make final preparations to secure center facilities and infrastructure.”
“I have declared Hurricane Condition II (HURCON II) as of 9:00 p.m. today [9/9],” declared Brig Gen. Wayne R. Monteith, Commander, 45th Space Wing.
“As we enter HURCON II, we continue to monitor Hurricane Irma’s progress. HURCON II indicates surface winds in excess of 58 mph could arrive in the area of the base within 24 hours.”
“This is a deadly major storm,” said Florida Gov. Rick Scott at an update briefing today. “Our state has never seen anything like it.”
“We are under a state of emergency!”
18 million people are currently under Hurricane warnings throughout Florida and the dire warnings from the Governor have been nothing short of catastrophic.
Here’s the latest Hurricane Irma storm track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) updated to Saturday evening, Sept 9.
Only a ride out team of roughly 130 or so KSC personnel based at the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) inside the Launch Control Center will remain on site to monitor spaceport facilities over the weekend and beyond.
“We’re closed until further notice except for Ride-Out Team. Stay safe!” said KSC officials.
“Ride-Out Team to remain in place until #Irma passes.”
Both KSC and the Cape’s Air Force Base will remain closed until Irma passes and until further notice and the facilities are deemed safe.
“After the storm has left the area, Kennedy’s Damage Assessment and Recovery Team will evaluate all center facilities and infrastructure for damage. The spaceport will reopen after officials determine it is safe for employees to return.”
State officials also ordered the mandatory evacuation of the Cape’s surrounding barrier islands including Merritt Island which is home to the space center and Cocoa Beach, as of Friday at 3 p.m. EDT.
This is the second year in a row that a deadly looming hurricane has forced the closure of KSC and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station.
When Hurricane Matthew struck last October 2016 it left over $100 million in damages to NASA and AF installations and ironically caused the postponed of the advanced GOES-16 (GOES-R) weather satellite now tracking Irma with unprecedented clarity and timing.
Strong wind gusts and heavy downpours have already drenched Titusville and other local Space Coast cities periodically today, Sat., Sept 9.
NASA’s iconic VAB was barely visible from my perch along Titusville river front, ghostlike in appearance when it peeked only rarely through the clouds.
As I write this late Saturday, Sept. 9, Irma is just hours and less than 100 miles away from striking the Florida Keys with a predicted impact of an unsurvivable storm surge.
The eye is currently off the north coast of Cuba and moving in a west northwesterly WNW direction at 7 MPH.
Monster storm Irma is the size of Texas. The outer bands are already lashing the Florida Keys.
Landfall is currently projected to be on the west coast of Florida, perhaps around the Tampa area and causing catastrophic storm surges, flooding and destruction of property and homes.
“Millions of Floridians will see major impacts with DEADLY DEADLY DEADLY storm surge and life threatening winds,” elaborated Gov. Scott.
“There is a serious threat of significant storm surge flooding along the entire west coast of Florida.
This has increased to 15 feet of impact above ground level.”
“Think about that. 15 feet is devastating and will cover your house. A typical first story is 7 to 10 feet. The storm surge will rush in and could kill you.”
“This is a life threatening situation,” warned Scott. “Central Florida is under a hurricane warning and will see dangerous and life threatening wind and torrential rainfall of more than a foot. Rainfall has already started and wind will begin tonight.”
“We could also see tornadoes.”
90+ MPH wind gusts are expected virtually statewide.
Widespread power outages are expected. Over 190,000 power outages have already been reported as of Saturday evening.
Millions more are expected to lose power – including half of all residents says Florida Power and Light (FPL) !
Hundreds of power crews are already prepositioned in place to get the juice flowing as soon as possible after Irma marches northward.
As a precaution earlier this week Scott already ordered all schools and government offices closed statewide until further notice.
Florida hurricane shelters are filling up in some areas and overflowing in others. 385 designated shelters are open already and more are coming. Over 375,000 people have already taken shelter.
Finding open gas stations is increasingly problematical because many are now closing as the storms impact is imminent. Tanker trucks had been replenishing empty storage tanks as best as possible throughout the state over the past few days.
“We are working to keep gas stations open,” said Scott.
8 to 18 inches of rain are expected across the state.
Storm surge warnings are in effect especially for the west coast notably in the Tampa and Sarasota areas where it could reach 5 – 10 feet in Tampa Bay and even higher to 10 to 15 feet along the southwest Florida coast is possible.
“Millions of Floridians will see life threatening winds starting tonight,” Scott warned.
“This is a life-threatening situation.”
“Over 6.5 million have been ordered to evacuate. Get out now if you have been ordered to do so.”
That’s 6.5 million people ordered to evacuate out of the total state population of 20 million – unfathomable.
Watch for Ken’s continuing onsite X-37B OTV-5 and NASA mission reports direct from the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida.
Stay tuned here for Ken’s continuing Earth and Planetary science and human spaceflight news.
In the past few decades, the search for extra-solar planets has turned up a wealth of discoveries. Between the many direct and indirect methods used by exoplanet-hunters, thousands of gas giants, rocky planets and other bodies have been found orbiting distant stars. Aside from learning more about the Universe we inhabit, one of the main driving forces behind these efforts has been the desire to find evidence of Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (ETI).
But suppose there are ETIs out there that are are also looking for signs of intelligence other than their own? How likely would they be to spot Earth? According to a new study by a team of astrophysicists from Queen’s University Belfast and the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany, Earth would be detectable (using existing technology) from several star systems in our galaxy.
This method consists of astronomers observing stars for periodic dips in brightness, which are attributed to planets passing (i.e. transiting) between them and the observer. For the sake of their study, Wells and his colleagues reversed the concept in order to determine if Earth would be visible to any species conducting observations from vantage points beyond our Solar System.
To answer this question, the team looked for parts of the sky from which one planet would be visible crossing the face of the Sun – aka. “transit zones”. Interestingly enough, they determined that the terrestrial planets that are closer to the Sun (Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars) would easier to detect than the gas and ice giants – i.e. Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.
While considerably larger, the gas/ice giants would be more difficult to detect using the transit method because of their long-period orbits. From Jupiter to Neptune, these planets take about 12 to 165 years to complete a single orbit! But more important than that is the fact that they orbit the Sun at much greater distances than the terrestrial planets. As Robert Wells indicated in a Royal Astronomical Society press statement:
”Larger planets would naturally block out more light as they pass in front of their star. However the more important factor is actually how close the planet is to its parent star – since the terrestrial planets are much closer to the Sun than the gas giants, they’ll be more likely to be seen in transit.”
Ultimately, what the team found was that at most, three planets could be observed from anywhere outside of the Solar System, and that not all combinations of these three planets was possible. For the most part, an observer would see only planet making a transit, and it would most likely be a rocky one. As Katja Poppenhaeger, a lecturer at the School of Mathematics and Physics at Queen’s University Belfast and a co-author of the study, explained:
“We estimate that a randomly positioned observer would have roughly a 1 in 40 chance of observing at least one planet. The probability of detecting at least two planets would be about ten times lower, and to detect three would be a further ten times smaller than this.”
What’s more, the team identified sixty-eight worlds where observers would be able to see one or more of the Solar planets making transits in front of the Sun. Nine of these planets are ideally situated to observe transits of the Earth, though none of them have been deemed to be habitable. These planets include HATS-11 b, 1RXS 1609 b, LKCA 15 b, WASP-68 b, WD 1145+017 b, and four planets in the WASP-47 system (b, c, d, e).
On top of that, they estimated (based on statistical analysis) that there could be as many as ten undiscovered and potentially habitable worlds in our galaxy which would be favorably located to detect Earth using our current level of technology. This last part is encouraging since, to date, not a single potentially habitable planet has been discovered where Earth could be seen making transits in front of the Sun.
The team also indicated that further discoveries made by the Kepler and K2 missions will reveal additional exoplanets that have “a favorable geometric perspective to allow transit detections in the Solar System”. In the future, Wells and his team plan to study these transit zones to search for exoplanets, which will hopefully reveal some that could also be habitable.
One of the defining characteristics in the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has been the act of guessing about what we don’t know based on what we do. In this respect, scientists are forced to consider what extra-terrestrial civilizations would be capable of based on what humans are currently capable of. This is similar to how our search for potentially habitable planets is limited since we know of only one where life exists (i.e. Earth).
While it might seem a bit anthropocentric, it’s actually in keeping with our current frame of reference. Assuming that intelligent species could be looking at Earth using the same methods we do is like looking for planets that orbit within their star’s habitable zones, have atmospheres and liquid water on the surfaces.
In other words, it’s the “low-hanging fruit” approach. But thanks to ongoing studies and new discoveries, our reach is slowly extending further!