More ISON Craziness: Tales of Popes, a Prophet and a Comet

Comet Halley as seen from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory in 1986. (Credit: NASA).

There’s an astronomical tall tale from the Middle Ages that seems to get recycled as factual every time a “great” comet rolls around. This week, we thought we’d look at a story that just won’t die, as well as a new twist in comet conspiracy that’s rolling around ye’ ole ‘Net.

We’ve debunked the current craziness surrounding ISON recently, but apparently our work isn’t finished! Comets seem to bring ‘em out of the woodwork. Today, we’ll discuss how that old prophet of doom Nostradamus may have “predicted” Comet ISON being part of the ‘end times,’ but first, let’s look at an astronomical tale of the past. Did a pope really excommunicate the most famous of all comets?

The mid-15th century was a trying time for Medieval Europe. The Black Death  had decimated the population of Europe a century prior, and the armies of the Ottoman Turks were advancing from the east. A bright comet could only bear ill will in the minds of the superstitious.

Pope Callixtus III: the ecommunicator of comets? (Credit:  Museo de la Catherdral de Valencia).
Pope Callixtus III: the excommunicator of comets? (Credit: Museo de la Cathedral de Valencia).

It was into this setting that Pope Callixtus III came into power in 1455. Callixtus was the first of two popes fielded by the Spanish Borgia family, which would later include his nephew Rodrigo who became Pope Alexander the VI, as depicted in the Showtime series The Borgias.

A fine the apparition of Halley’s Comet occurred in June and July 1456. Belgrade was to come under siege by the Ottoman Turks from July 4th to 22nd of that year, and the Fall of Constantinople on May 29th, 1453 to Mehmed II was still fresh on everyone’s mind.

Astronomical signs and omens were a hot topic as well. The partial lunar eclipse of May 22nd, 1453 was seen by many to have fulfilled prophecy that an eclipse would mark the fall of Constantinople. Of course, there are from 4 to 7 eclipses that can be seen on any given year, and lunar eclipses are visible from the entire moonward facing side of the Earth. It’s not too tough to find one to fit any given bill of gloom and doom.

Keep in mind, Halley’s Comet wasn’t even identified in the 15th century as the same comet that was returning once every 75.3 years. That fact wouldn’t be uncovered until Edmund Halley successfully predicted the return of the comet that now bears his name on Christmas Day 1758.

Halley’s Comet would’ve been a spectacular sight in the early summer of 1456, unfurling a tail that was said to have been 60 degrees long and spanning the constellations of Cancer and Leo. The brilliant comet would’ve been a conspicuous object for up to three hours after sunset, and it’s certain that observers around the Mediterranean, including a Rome-based pope would’ve seen it.

A depiction of the passage of Comet Halley through the constellations of Cancer & Leo in 1456. (Wikimedia Commons image in the Public Domain).
A depiction of the passage of Comet Halley through the constellations of Cancer & Leo in 1456. (Wikimedia Commons image in the Public Domain).

But did the pope actually excommunicate the comet to assuage the fears of the European populace of an invasion from the east?

While a quixotic story, the idea that a pope could’ve banned a heavenly body from salvation is apocryphal as best. The Papal Bull issued by Callixtus III on June 29th, 1456 called for prayers and penance and the ringing of church bells in light of the cruelty visited upon Eastern Europe by invaders from the east, but makes no mention of the comet. In fact, no primary source for the tale exists.

The story seems to have gotten its start with a historian named Platina, who wrote a biography of Callixtus III in 1471. Here we find the appearance of:

“A hairy reddish comet appearing for several days… Callixtus, in order to avert the wrath of God, ordered processions to be held…”

No out right excommunication per se, but the Pope and the comet were now forever linked in the eye of history.

The pitched Battle of Nandorfehervar during the 1456 Siege of Belgrade. (Wikimedia Commons scan in the Public Domain).
The pitched Battle of Nandorfehervar during the 1456 Siege of Belgrade. (Painting by Rubens in the Public Domain).

French mathematician and astronomer Pierre-Simon Laplace later gave the excommunication tale a boost in the late 18th century, and further embellishment followed from astronomer François Arago writing in 1832.

Keep in mind, these are historical works written down some years after the fact, often translated from Latin to French to English—ideas such as LaPlace’s “conjurer la comete” can easily come across as to “exorcise” or “excommunicate” a comet. Also, political satire of popes, both alive and dead, was common after the start of the Protestant Reformation. Halley’s Comet also made a fine apparition in 1835, and Arago may have been looking for something to captivate the public with in anticipation.

But although this story was debunked over a century ago, it still makes its rounds. None other than Carl Sagan repeated the excommunication story in his book Comet (sorry Carl!) although he also notes that the tale is apocryphal. Although the story of the excommunication of Halley’s Comet has been debunked time and again, a search of the Internet reveals about an even split between the credulous and the skeptical.

But there is also a current mythos being born around Comet ISON, Pope Francis and Nostradamus on ye ole web. For the most part, it has to do with — you guessed it — the end of the world. As per the usual, great comets are harbingers of catastrophic events. Combine the words of Nostradamus with the fact that 2013 has been hyped as “The Year of the Comet,” along with Pope Benedict’s unusual resignation, and that equals The End of Time.

If you don’t believe me, search of Comet/ISON/Pope and see what turns up. The gist of the prophecy cites a quatrain stating that:

 “the great star for seven days shall burn

So nakedly clear like two suns appearing

The large dog all night howling

While the great Pontiff shall change his territory.”  

Of course, the quatrains of Nostradamus, like all prophecies, are suitably vague enough that they could be interpreted almost in whatever fashion suits the reader. And again, we’re looking at the old 16th century French translated into modern English.

And like eclipses, there are a handful of comets every year. Most reach binocular visibility, and a few may go on to become visible to the naked eye. We’ve already had two comets that crossed this threshold this year, comet C/2011 L4 PanSTARRS and C/2012 F6 Lemmon.

Comet ISON as seen from the Hubble Space Telescope- no popes were harmed in the taking of this image! (credit: NASA/ESA/STScI/AURA).
Comet ISON as seen from the Hubble Space Telescope… no popes were harmed or forced to flee in the taking of this image. (credit: NASA/ESA/STScI/AURA).

And Comet ISON’s “greatness” is still very much in question. Its currently only at 12th magnitude and probably won’t be a naked eye object until at least early November. And it certainly won’t have the appearance of a second Sun!

I’ll leave it to the armchair predictors of comet doom to decipher what “the large dog howling” even means.  The chief logical fallacy evoked by the adherents of Nostradamus is what is known as retrofitting— it’s easy to take a cryptically predicted disaster and find an earthquake, eclipse, and yes, even a comet that falls roughly near the given date.

Of course, if ISON kicks into high gear, then we could really be in for a grand show, along with an accompanying upswing in comet hysteria. And thus, the tireless vigilance against comet-mania continues. Hey, we’re all after “link juice” and the almighty SEO, right? Of course, the real harm comes when something like the 1997 Heaven’s Gate mass suicide, inspired by rumors of an alien spacecraft following comet Hale-Bopp occurs.

Halleys March 9 2062
Halley’s Comet as seen on the morning of March 9th, 2062. (Created by the author using Starry Night Education software).

In short, enjoy the show as ISON approaches, read the online tales of popes and comets past… but as rapper and surreptitious promoter of skepticism Chuck D of Public Enemy implores us, don’t believe the hype.

Maybe we’ll finally be an enlightened and rational species when Halley’s Comet pays us a visit again starting  in the summer of 2061 through the spring of 2062!

-For an exhaustive look at the myth of the excommunication of Halley’s Comet, Read An Historical Examination of the Connection of Callixtus III with Halley’s Comet published in 1910.

-To see a (mostly) woo free version of the current Comet ISON versus Pope Francis mythos, (with quatrains) check out this article from news.com.au. Hey, we sift through woo so you don’t have to!

Ready, Set, Observe! How to See Comet ISON In The Early Morning Sky

Comet ISON shows a small, compact coma and short, faint tail in this photo made by Krisztian Sarneczky on Aug. 31, 2013. Credit: K. Sárneczky / Konkoly Observatory

OK, you’ve waited patiently for Comet ISON to brighten and  reappear in the dawn sky. It has. Now you’re chomping at the bit for a look at it in your telescope. Before you set the alarm and venture into the night, let’s prepare for what to expect. The better you know your target, the easier it will be to find.

Belgian astrophotographer Alfons Diepvens captured this view of ISON on Sept. 1, 2013 through his telescope. Tail length and direction are indicated. Click image to see more photos of ISON and other recent comets. Credit: Alfons Diepvens
Astrophotographer Alfons Diepvens captured this view of ISON on Sept. 1, 2013 through his telescope. Tail length and direction are indicated. Click image to see more his photos of ISON and other recent comets. Credit: Alfons Diepvens

The latest brightness estimates from the amateur comet community place ISON around magnitude 13, bright enough to be within reach of 10-inch (25 cm) and larger telescopes. Alan Hale of Arizona, co-discover of Comet Hale-Bopp, was one of the first to see it.  Through his 16-inch (41 cm) reflecting telescope  on September 1, he noted the comet as a small object about 0.6 arc minutes across (1 arc minute = 1/30 the diameter of the full moon), brighter in the center and shining faintly at magnitude 13.1. Picture a small, dim patch of glowing mist and you’ve got the picture. Hale’s observing conditions were excellent though he did have to contend with light from the nearby crescent moon. Starting tomorrow morning, the moon will finally be out of the picture.

This map shows the sky as you face east tomorrow morning  Sept. 3 around 5 a.m. local time just before the start of morning twilight. The comet is not far from Mars and the Beehive Cluster. Stellarium
With the moon out of the sky, now is a great time to hunt for Comet ISON. This map shows the sky as you face east tomorrow morning Sept. 3 around 5 a.m. local time just before the start of morning twilight. The comet is near both Mars and the Beehive Cluster. Stellarium

A sharp-eyed observer under the best skies would expect to see a fuzzy object this faint in a telescope as small as 8-inches (20 cm). Most of us will need something a little bigger. A 10-12 incher (25-30 cm) should do the trick until the comet swells into the 11-12 magnitude range. But you’ll need more than a hefty scope. Key to spotting ISON are good charts, a steady atmosphere for sharp images (shaky air blurs faint objects into invisibility) and catching the comet at the right time. I also encourage you to use averted vision, a great technique for spotting faint sky objects. Instead of staring directly at the comet, look off to the side of its position. That way you allow the comet’s feeble photons to flood your eye’s rod cells, those most sensitive to dim light.

This tighter view shows the comet in relation to the naked eye star Gamma Cancri and the lovely Beehive Cluster in Cancer the Crab. Stellarium
This tighter view shows the comet (on Sept. 3) in relation to the naked eye star Gamma Cancri and the pretty Beehive Cluster in Cancer the Crab. North is up, west to the right. Stellarium

While it now rises around 3-3:30 a.m. local time, you’ll get your best – or only – view once ISON has cleared the light-sucking thick air and haze so common near the horizon. The optimum viewing time occurs shortly before the start of morning twilight when the comet will be about 15 degrees high in the northeastern sky. At mid-northern latitudes,where twilight begins about 1.5 hours before sunrise, that’s around 5 a.m. Did I mention you’d lose a few hours sleep in your pursuit?

Comet ISON's position plotted for 5 a.m. Central Daylight Time tomorrow through the 10th. Stars are shown to 12th magnitude.  Click for larger version. Created with Chris Marriott's SkyMap Pro program
Comet ISON’s position plotted for 5 a.m. Central Daylight Time tomorrow through the 10th. Stars are shown to 12th magnitude. Click for larger version. Created with Chris Marriott’s SkyMap Pro program

Lucky for us comet hunters, ISON’s location is easy to find only a few degrees east of the 1st magnitude planet Mars and about 2 degrees north of the familiar Beehive Cluster or M44. The first map shows the general view to get you oriented. The second takes us in closer to show the comet’s relation to the Beehive Cluster, and the third provides a detailed telescopic view with stars plotted to about 12th magnitude. The comet positions on the detailed map are plotted for 5 a.m. CDT. Since ISON moves relatively slowly, those positions will be accurate for a time zone or two either way. If you live significantly farther east or west of the U.S. Central Time Zone, you can interpolate between the tick marks.

It’s good news for skywatchers from here on out as ISON continues to brighten and rise higher in the east with each passing night. A month from now, it should be visible in scopes as small as 6-inches (15 cm). Good luck in your comet quest!

How to See Mars in September 2013: The Red Planet Pierces the Beehive & More

Mars on September 8th. (Created by the author using Stellarium).

Launch season for Mars missions is almost upon us once again.

This is a time when spacecraft can achieve an optimal trajectory to reach the Red Planet, expending a minimal amount of fuel and taking the shortest period of time. This window of opportunity, which opens once every two years, always opens up about six months prior to Martian opposition.

For you stargazers, this is also the best time to observe the Red Planet as it makes its closest approach to Earth. And no, it won’t appear as large as a Full Moon, but it will make for a fine telescopic target.

During the last launch window in 2011-12, Mars Curiosity made the journey, and Russia’s Phobos-Grunt tried. Hey, it’s a tough business, this spaceflight thing. This time around, The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) hopes to launch its first ever interplanetary spacecraft, with its Mars Orbiter Mission departing on October 18th. NASA is also sending its Mars Atmosphere Volatile EvolutioN mission known as MAVEN to study the atmosphere of the Red Planet.

Opposition next occurs on April 8th, 2014, but the start of launch season always finds Mars emerging high to the east at dawn. Starting next week, Mars has some interesting encounters that are worth checking out as a prelude to the upcoming opposition season.

The planet Mars shines at +1.6 magnitude and is about 4” in size in September. This is a far cry from its maximum size of 15.1” that it will achieve next spring, and its grandest maximum size of 25.1” that it reached in 2003. All oppositions of Mars are not created equal, because of the planet’s 9.3% eccentric orbit.

But the good news is, we’re trending towards a better series of oppositions, which follow a roughly 15 year cycle. In 2018, we’ll see an opposition nearly as good as the 2003 one, with Mars appearing 24.1” in size. This is also the time frame that Dennis Tito wants to launch his crewed Mars 2018 flyby.

But back to the present. The action starts on September 2nd when the waning crescent Moon passes 6.1 degrees SSW of Mars.

Mars is currently in the constellation Cancer, and will actually transit (pass in front of) the open star cluster known as the Beehive or Messier 44, standing only 0.23 degrees from its center on September 8th. M44 is 1.5 degrees in size, and this presents an outstanding photo-op.

The path of Mars through the beehive cluster from September 3rd through September 12th. (Creat
The path of Mars through the beehive cluster from September 3rd through September 12th. (Created in Starry Night; Image courtesy of Starry Night Education).

At high power, you might just be able to catch the real time motion of Mars against the background stars of M44. Mars currently rises three hours before the Sun, giving you a slim window to accomplish this feat.

Mars is also in the midst of a series of transits of the Beehive Cluster, with one occurring every other year. Mars last crossed M44 on October 1st, 2011.  The next time you’ll be able to spy this same alignment won’t be until August 20th, 2015.

But another cosmic interloper may photo-bomb Mars in September.

We’re talking about none other than Comet C/2012 S1 ISON, the big wildcard event of the season. Comet ISON is just peeking out from behind the Sun now, and dedicated amateurs have already managed to recover it. “IF” it follows projected light curve predictions, ISON may reach binocular visibility of greater than +10th magnitude by October 1st and may breech naked eye visibility by early November.

ISON approaches within two degrees of Mars on September 27th. Its closest apparent approach is will be on Oct 18th at a minimum separation of 0.89 degrees, just over the size of a Full Moon. How bright ISON will actually be at that point is the question of the season. To quote veteran comet hunter David Levy, “Comets are like cats. They have tails, and they do whatever they want.” The closest physical approach of Mars and Comet ISON is on October 1st at 0.07 astronomical units, or 10.4 million kilometres apart. Both will be crossing over from the astronomical constellations of Cancer into Leo in late September.

Comet ISON and Mars looking east on the morning of September 27th.
Comet ISON and Mars looking east on the morning of September 27th. (Created in Starry Night; Image courtesy of Starry Night Education).

Mars gets another close shave from a comet next year, when Comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring passes 123,000 kilometres from Mars on October 19th, 2014. Interestingly, MAVEN will be arriving just a month prior to this if it departs Earth at the start of its 21 day window. Engineers have noted that an increase in cometary dust may be a concern for the newly arrived spacecraft during insertion into Martian orbit.

MAVEN Principal Investigator Bruce Jakosky notes that the first concern is the safety of the spacecraft, the second is studies of Mars, and the third is, just perhaps, to carry out observations of the comet.

Look for more information on Universe Today about the Martian cometary flybys as each event gets closer.

September is a great time to begin observations of the Red Planet. Usually, 8” seconds in diameter is the threshold that is frequently quoted for the first surface features (usually to polar ice caps) to become apparent, but we’re already seeing astro-imagers getting detailed images of Mars, right now.

Be sure to follow Mars on its trek across the September dawn skies as robotic explorers prepare to embark on their epic journeys!

Weekly Space Hangout – August 2, 2013

It’s time for another Weekly Space Hangout, where we give you a rundown of the big space news stories of the week, from a team of scientists and space journalists.

Host: Fraser Cain

Participants: Sondy Springmann, Alan Boyle, Brian Koberlein, Nicole Gugliucci, David Dickinson

Stories:
Alan Boyle Visits Blue Origin Facility
Arecibo Images 2003 DZ15
Comet ISON Will or Won’t Fizzle
Polarization of the Cosmic Microwave
Update on the Spacesuit Leak

We record the Weekly Space Hangout live on Google+ every Friday at 12:00 pm Pacific / 3:00 pm Eastern. You can watch the show live here on Universe Today, or the archived version on YouTube.

Rumors of Comet ISON ‘Fizzling’ May be Greatly Exaggerated

Comet ISON was used in a search for time travelers. NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope provides a close-up look of Comet ISON (C/2012 S1), as photographed on April 10. Credit: NASA, ESA, J.-Y. Li (Planetary Science Institute), and the Hubble Comet ISON Imaging Science Team.

A press release out yesterday about a recent paper on Comet ISON has caused a mild uproar across the astronomy-minded social media outlets and some websites. The article issued from the Physics & Astrophysics Computation Group (FACOM) at the University of Antioquia in Medellin, Colombia is titled “Comet Of The Century? Not Yet! Comet C/2012 S1 ISON Has Fizzled Completely And May Disintegrate At Or Before Reaching Perihelion.”

The article had professional astronomers and comet enthusiasts alike shaking their heads in disbelief.

For one, any current determination of ISON’s ultimate fate when it gets close to the Sun later this year is speculation at best, (as is the case with almost any other sun-grazing comet) and since no one on planet Earth has seen ISON since it entered the Sun’s glare in June, there is absolutely no way to determine the comet’s current state, either. The almost unanimous shout from the astronomy internets was “Please! We just have to wait and see what happens with ISON.”

But the press release also had this journalist (and others) wondering if Ferrin’s views were taken out of context for the sake of a dramatic press release.

For example, nowhere in his paper does Ferrin say that Comet ISON has “fizzled,” (nor is there a direct quote in the press release with that word) and he does make it clear in his paper that his information about the comet is preliminary. However, the press release seemingly infers there was new data and that the comet is nothing short of dead.

But in an email from Ferrin, in response to an inquiry from Universe Today, Ferrin stands by the press release, as well as his opinion that Comet ISON “does not have a bright future.”

“The term ‘fizzled completely’ is not a scientific term so it should not go into a scientific paper,” Ferrin said. “However it reflects reality with the information we have.”

His paper (a full 51-pages) was posted to arXiv on June 20, 2013, and has been submitted to the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, still undergoing peer review. The paper is based on data available up to the last good observing date in late-May, 2013, and Ferrin said in his email to Universe Today that up to that point “there is no evidence of brightening whatsoever. I doubt that anybody has seen that brightening.”

Ferrin, a well-known cometary scientist, concurred that the comet’s current state is unknown because it has entered the Sun’s glare but when last seen it had not brightened at all, adding in his email that “the fact that the comet was in a standstill situation makes it very improbable of becoming as bright as the Moon.”

As astronomer Karl Battams said, that last statement is hardly breaking news. Battams is an astrophysicist and computational scientist based at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington DC, and he has operated the NASA-funded Sungrazing Comets Project since 2003. He’s also part of the Comet ISON Observing Campaign a massive, global observing campaign for ISON for both professional and amateur astronomers.

“Few serious astronomers and cometary scientists have ever felt ISON would be ‘brighter than the full Moon,’ Battams told Universe Today. “That’s entirely the media’s term, and we’ve been saying this for months, that none of us in the CIOC foresee ISON getting that bright, and never have done so. So we’re side-by-side with Ferrin in that respect.”

But Battams has some issues with both the paper and the press release.

“The paper is a mixture of reporting facts, and performing extrapolations and modeling based on certain theories and models, some of which are more developed than others,” Battams told Universe Today via email. “Ferrin’s analysis is based on data taken up until around the end of May, but the article misleads by implying that Ferrin has used recent data, which he hasn’t, as there is none. He has simply applied his own methods, model and analysis to the same data that we all have.”

Battams said he can’t comment on the quality of those models, but said Ferrin’s conclusions are broad enough that they don’t seem entirely out of line with what everyone else is saying about the comet – that there is a range of possible outcomes: Comet ISON might fizzle before it gets here or it might disintegrate before, or at perihelion, but it also might still brighten up.

“There’s really no new conclusion here — just a different methods that leads to the same conclusion,” Battams said.

In the paper, Ferrin reaches some of his conclusions comparing ISON to Comet Honig (2002 O4), the brightness of which he says “was in a standstill for 52 days after which it disintegrated.”

Battams said astronomers have to be cautious in comparing ISON to another comet – especially comparing it to Honig, which was not a sungrazer and shared little in common with ISON other than also being a comet.

“ISON is both a Sungrazer, and dynamically new from the Oort Cloud,” he said. “We have no modern record of such an object (see this article about ISON’s uniqueness) so we must exercise a little more caution than usual when comparing it to other comets. The last “major” sungrazer we had was Lovejoy in 2011, and for an object likely much smaller than ISON, it put on a pretty good show.”

Another astronomer with the CIOC, Matthew Knight from the Lowell Observatory also took issue with the comparison.

“Comparing ISON to 2002 O4 Honig ignores the fact that they were in very different places in the solar system,” Knight said via email, replying to an inquiry from Universe Today regarding Ferrin’s paper. “Honig began flattening out at 1.26 AU as it approached perihelion… ISON being flat at 4-5 AU is a completely different physical realm, since water and other volatiles are not expected to be very active yet.”

Knight also differed with Ferrin’s opinion that ISON’s peculiar non-brightening behavior when last seen “could possibly be explained if the comet were water deficient, or if a surface layer of rock or non-volatile silicate dust were quenching the sublimation to space.”

“This ignores the fact that water isn’t expected to be driving activity from January through June because ISON was still beyond the “frost line” (somewhere between 2.5 and 3 AU) beyond which water doesn’t sublimate efficiently because it is too cold,” Knight said. “It is only when a comet passes inside the frost line that water-driven activity is expected to ramp up…. I fully expect that once it passes inside the frost line, activity will pick up again. We should know as soon as it reemerges from behind the Sun in late August/early September.”

These images from NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope of C/2012 S1 (Comet ISON) were taken on June 13, when ISON was 310 million miles (about 500 million kilometers) from the sun. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/JHUAPL/UCF
These images from NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope of C/2012 S1 (Comet ISON) were taken on June 13, when ISON was 310 million miles (about 500 million kilometers) from the sun. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/JHUAPL/UCF

As to whether ISON has ‘fizzled’ both Battams and Knight noted that the recently released Spitzer observations from June 13 (and released on July 24 – well after Ferrin’s paper was published) showed the comet was ‘fizzy,’ not fizzled, as it was actively spewing out carbon dioxide and dust.

In the end, no matter what any current paper or press release says about Comet ISON, nothing will be known for sure until we see ISON again, and until it gets closer to the Sun. It will pass about 1.2 million km (724,000 miles) from the Sun at closest approach on November 28, 2013.

For now, everyone needs to wait and watch what happens and end the speculation.

However, as noted by Daniel Fischer on Twitter, the reaction caused by the press release related to Ferrin’s paper has been, unfortunately, “dramatic.”

Any hype either way — whether it is calling this the Comet of the Century or a comet that has fizzled — only does a disservice to astronomy, and gives the general public the wrong impression of both the comet and science’s ability to study and predict astronomical phenomenon.

Weekly Space Hangout – July 26, 2013

It’s time for another Weekly Space Hangout, where a dedicated team of space journalists run down all the big stories in space and astronomy for the week of July 26, 2013.

Host: Fraser Cain

Panel: Jason Major, Scott Lewis, David Dickinson

Stories:
Astrological Sign of the Royal Baby
Cosmos Trailer Showcased at Comiccon
Asteroid 2003 DZ15 Close Pass on Monday
Comet ISON Image with Galaxies
Delta Aquarids Meteor Shower
Pale Blue Dot II
Apollo 11 Anniversary
Some Success with the Kepler Recovery

We record the Weekly Space Hangout live as a Google+ Hangout on Air every Friday at Noon Pacific, 3:00 pm Eastern. You can watch the show live on Google+, or here on Universe Today. But you can also watch the archive after the fact, if live video isn’t your thing.

Comet ISON is Spewing Out Carbon Dioxide and Dust

These images from NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope of C/2012 S1 (Comet ISON) were taken on June 13, when ISON was 310 million miles (about 500 million kilometers) from the sun. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/JHUAPL/UCF

As part of the Comet ISON Observing Campaign, the Spitzer Space Telescope was used to “stare” at the comet for 24 hours on Jun 13, 2013. Images from Spitzer’s “ISON-a-thon” indicate that carbon dioxide and dust are spewing out of the comet at a fairly large rate.

“We estimate ISON is emitting about 2.2 million pounds (1 million kilograms) of what is most likely carbon dioxide gas and about 120 million pounds (54.4 million kilograms) of dust every day,” said Carey Lisse, leader of NASA’s Comet ISON Observation Campaign and a senior research scientist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

That amount of dust is about the mass of one aircraft carrier every two days or so, tweeted the Sungrazing Comets Twitter feed,, and the amount of carbon dioxide released per day would be enough for about 625 million cans of soda.

The images were taken by the Spitzer’s Infrared Array Camera showing the comet’s tail, which is about 186,400 miles (300,000 kilometers) long.

Comet ISON was about 312 million miles (502 million kilometers) from the Sun, 3.35 times farther than Earth, when the observations were made.

Comet ISON (C/2012 S1) is less than 3 miles (4.8 kilometers) in diameter (about the size of a small mountain) and weighs between 7 billion and 7 trillion pounds (3.2 billion and 3.2 trillion kilograms). However, its true size and density have not yet been accurately determined because of its distance from Earth. Like all comets, ISON is a dirty snowball made up of dust and frozen gases such as water, ammonia, methane and carbon dioxide. These are some of the fundamental building blocks, which scientists believe led to the formation of the planets 4.5 billion years ago.

“This observation gives us a good picture of part of the composition of ISON, and, by extension, of the proto-planetary disk from which the planets were formed,” said Lisse. “Much of the carbon in the comet appears to be locked up in carbon dioxide ice. We will know even more in late July and August, when the comet begins to warm up near the water-ice line outside of the orbit of Mars, and we can detect the most abundant frozen gas, which is water, as it boils away from the comet.”

The comet will pass within 724,000 miles (1.16 million kilometers) of the Sun on Nov. 28.

Astronomers are wondering if the comet will survive its close pass of the Sun, and also if it will live up to expectations of becoming bright enough to be seen in the daytime, as some have predicted.

Only time will tell … and we’ll be here to share the news.

Source: JPL

Curiosity Interview with Project Manager Jim Erickson-Part 2-Dealing with Dunes and Comet ISON on the Road to Mt. Sharp

Curiosity On the Road to Mount Sharp and treacherous Sand Dunes - Sol 338 - July 19. Curiosity captured this panoramic view of the path ahead to the base of Mount Sharp and potentially dangerous sand dunes after her most recent drive on July 19, 2013. She must safely cross over the dark dune field to climb and reach the lower sedimentary layers of Mount Sharp. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Ken Kremer-(kenkremer.com)/Marco Di Lorenzo

Curiosity On the Road to Mount Sharp and treacherous Sand Dunes – Sol 338 – July 19
Curiosity captured this panoramic view of the path ahead to the base of Mount Sharp and potentially dangerous sand dunes after her most recent drive on July 19, 2013. She must safely cross over the dark dune field to climb and reach the lower sedimentary layers of Mount Sharp. Stowed robotic arm on rover deck seen at center.
See JPL traverse map below pinpointing the view from this location
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Ken Kremer-(kenkremer.com)/Marco Di Lorenzo[/caption]

NASA’s state-of-the-art Curiosity Mars rover is stepping up the driving pace and rolling relentlessly across alien Martian terrain towards the towering mystery mountain known as Mount Sharp that’s holds the keys to the Red Planets past evolution and whether its an abode for Life.

To uncover the latest scoop on the robots otherworldly adventures, Universe Today conducted an exclusive interview with the Curiosity Project Manager Jim Erickson, of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).

In Part 2 of my conversation with Jim Erickson we’ll discuss more about the rover’s traverse across alien territory that’s simultaneously a science gold mine and a potential death trap, as well as Comet ISON and nighttime observations and science planning.

Read Part 1 – here.

“When Comet ISON is in the sky I’m sure we’ll do some observations of it depending on when its visible,” Erickson told me.

Today, July 20, is Sol 339 of the rovers mission to Mars. And also the 44th anniversary of the 1st human Moonwalks in 1969.

And Curiosity just drove another 34 meters yesterday, Sol 338 (July 19) – for a total distance exceeding 1.1 kilometers.

Curiosity's Traverse Map Through Sol 338 This map shows the route driven by NASA's Mars rover Curiosity through Sol 338 of the rover's mission on Mars (July 19, 2013).  Numbering of the dots along the line indicate the sol number of each drive. North is up. The scale bar is 200 meters (656 feet). From Sol 337 to Sol 338, Curiosity had driven a straight line distance of about 122.90 feet (32.59 meters). The base image from the map is from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment Camera (HiRISE) in NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.  Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. of Arizona
Curiosity’s Traverse Map Through Sol 338
This map shows the route driven by NASA’s Mars rover Curiosity through Sol 338 of the rover’s mission on Mars (July 19, 2013). Numbering of the dots along the line indicate the sol number of each drive. North is up. The scale bar is 200 meters (656 feet). From Sol 337 to Sol 338, Curiosity had driven a straight line distance of about 122.90 feet (32.59 meters). The base image from the map is from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment Camera (HiRISE) in NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. of Arizona

As for Martian sand dunes, they dunes offer both exciting opportunities and lurking dangers to the rovers well being.

Indeed fields of Martian sand dunes are potential death traps and the six wheeled rover has no choice but to traverse across an extensive dune field as she closes in on the base of Mount Sharp

Recall that NASA’s now long lived Opportunity rover nearly perished rather early in her mission at the ‘Purgatory’ dune field on Meridiani Planum.

Spirit died after more than six highly productive years on the Red Planet when she was unable to escape a hidden sand trap she had accidentally fallen wheels deep into as the vehicle was merrily roving beside an eroded volcano at Gusev Crater on the approach to the mysterious Von Braun mound.

So, dunes are serious business

Here is Part 2 of my interview with Jim Erickson.

Ken Kremer: Which direction is Curiosity headed? Will she be following the southwest route shown in the ellipse on the JPL map – see traverse map below – or reinvestigate any other spots nearer the landing site first?

Jim Erickson: We have a good general idea. We will be on a general heading of southwest, not west which would have taken us back near the landing site [at Bradbury Landing].

Curiosity Route Map From 'Glenelg' to Mount Sharp. This map shows where NASA's Mars rover Curiosity landed in August 2012 at "Bradbury Landing"; the area where the rover worked from November 2012 through May 2013 at and near the "John Klein" target rock in the "Glenelg" area; and the mission's next major destination, the entry point to the base of Mount Sharp.  Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. of Arizona
Curiosity Route Map From ‘Glenelg’ to Mount Sharp
This map shows where NASA’s Mars rover Curiosity landed in August 2012 at “Bradbury Landing”; the area where the rover worked from November 2012 through May 2013 at and near the “John Klein” target rock in the “Glenelg” area; and the mission’s next major destination, the entry point to the base of Mount Sharp. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. of Arizona

Ken: So the rover will not pass by the Hottah outcrop of concretions formed in water and investigated early in the mission?

Jim Erickson: No. The intent for the ellipse [shown on the map] is that we will be traveling in it to get to an area where the sand dunes look better for crossing [to the base of Mount Sharp]. When we get there we will know reality. And we will pick a safe spot to cross.

The dunes can be both an issue or in some cases easy sailing.

My experience on MER [Spirit & Opportunity] was that when you are going with the dunes, down a trough, they tend to be well packed and that was great driving.

But if you need to make a right turn, that can be a challenge for a couple of reasons. It is harder to see what is inside the next trough. And you have to drive to the top of the dune. So your driving is limited until you can see what’s inside the next dune.

Level ground is more straightforward. You know exactly what to look for if the terrain doesn’t change the next day. So you can do the same thing you did last night based on the new set of images.

If the terrain is changing then it gets more complicated.

Ken: Will you be straddling the dunes or driving alongside some safe distance away?

Jim Erickson: We have been going through various options of different planned routes. At some point we have to go with the dune directions.

So we’ll be traveling down some troughs later on. We will definitely have to pick our way through them.

Part of it is gaining experience in this new area of Mars with how the sand dunes and troughs themselves actually are.

So we’ll have to wait and see. We know we’ll have to deal with the dunes. Depending on how these dunes act we may have to do different things compared to MER.

Ken: What’s the health status of Curiosity?

Jim Erickson: We’re doing great. There are always active things we are looking at.

We had the anomaly before conjunction and have put in place a number of software mitigations and reconfigured the A side memory so that we can work around the hardware problem that happened. If we have another problem, both the A and B side memory can handle it gracefully, unlike the last time.

Ken: Describe the rover’s power situation? And the ability to do nighttime observations like the recent imagery of Phobos rising?

Read earlier Phobos story – here

Jim Erickson: Yes. We have plenty of power.

And certainly will be able to do nighttime observations.

Ken: What’s the plan for observations of Comet ISON?

Jim Erickson: When we get to the point when Comet ISON is in the sky I’m sure we’ll do some observations of it, depending on the time period when its visible.

Note: NASA’s Curiosity and Opportunity rovers will have a view of ISON in October with Oct. 1, 2013, being the comet’s closest approach to Mars.

NASA’s Directory of Planetary Science Jim Green told me previously that NASA is very interested in using its orbiting and surface assets at Mars to study Comet ISON. It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Early October 2013 will be the prime viewing time for ISON from the vicinity of the Red Planet.

Let’s hope that NASA’s quartet of spacecraft and ESA’s lone orbiter capture some breathtaking imagery and science observations.

Ken: About the recent Phobos nighttime images, a Universe Today reader asked whether the other points of light beside Phobos were stars or hot pixels?

Jim Erickson: The specks are hot pixels [not stars], intensified by the long exposure times for the image.


Video Caption: ‘Phobos Rising’ – This movie clip shows Phobos, the larger of the two moons of Mars, passing overhead, as observed by Curiosity in a series of images centered straight overhead starting shortly after sunset on June 28, 2013. Phobos first appears near the lower center of the view and moves toward the top of the view. The apparent ring is an imaging artifact. The other bright spots are hot pixels – not stars. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Ken: How about the prospects for science along the way to the mountain?

Jim Erickson: We expect to do science along the way to Mount Sharp, for example in terms of atmospheric measurements.

We will stop at some preplanned sites. Exactly which ones is still being debated by the scientists.

And we’ll do the right thing – If we see something spectacular along the way. Just because we may not have identified it previously, that doesn’t mean we won’t stop and examine it.

Things are going very well, says Erickson.

Erickson has worked in key positions on many NASA planetary science missions dating back to Viking in the 1970’s. These include the Galileo mission to Jupiter, both MER rovers Spirit & Opportunity, as well as a stint with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

I’ll have more upcoming from Jim about Curiosity’s Martian drilling activities.

As of today (July 20) Curiosity has driven nine times since leaving the Glenelg/Yellowknife Bay area on July 4 (Sol 324), totaling nearly 300 meters.

Stay tuned for more from Mars.

Ken Kremer

This photomosic shows NASA’s Curiosity departing at last for Mount Sharp- her main science destination. Note the wheel tracks on the Red Planet’s surface. The navcam camera images were taken on July 4, 2013 (Sol 324). Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Ken Kremer (kenkremer.com)/Marco Di Lorenzo
This photomosic shows NASA’s Curiosity departing at last for Mount Sharp- her main science destination. Note the wheel tracks on the Red Planet’s surface. The navcam camera images were taken on July 4, 2013 (Sol 324). Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Ken Kremer (kenkremer.com)/Marco Di Lorenzo
Mount Sharp inside Gale Crater - is the primary destination of NASA’s Curiosity rover mission to Mars.  Curiosity landed on the right side of the mountain as shown here, near the dune field colored dark blue.  Mount Sharp dominates Gale Crater. It is 3.4 mile (5.5 km) high.  Gale Crater is 154 km wide. This image was taken by the High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) of ESA’s Mars Express orbiter.  Credit: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
Mount Sharp inside Gale Crater – is the primary destination of NASA’s Curiosity rover mission to Mars. Curiosity landed on the right side of the mountain as shown here, near the dune field colored dark blue. Mount Sharp dominates Gale Crater. It is 3.4 mile (5.5 km) high. Gale Crater is 154 km wide. This image was taken by the High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) of ESA’s Mars Express orbiter. Credit: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)

Weekly Space Hangout – July 19, 2013

Here’s our Weekly Space Hangout for July 19, 2013. Watch as a team of space and astronomy journalists discuss the big space stories of the week. We do this every Friday at 12:00 pm Pacific Time / 3:00 pm Eastern Time. You can join us live, or watch the archive here or on Google+.

Host: Fraser Cain

Participants: Sondy Springmann, Amy Shira Teitel, Jason Major, David Dickenson, Dr. Matthew Francis

And here are the stories that we covered.

Comet ISON: The Timelapse Hubble Movie

A false-color, visible-light image of Comet ISON taken with Hubble's Wide Field Camera 3. Credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)

The Hubble Space Telescope team has released a video of Comet ISON as it is tearing toward its encounter with the Sun, zooming at 77,250 km/h (48,000 miles per hour). The comet’s motion is captured in a timelapse movie, below, made from a sequence of pictures taken May 8, 2013. On that date, the comet was 650 million km (403 million miles) from Earth, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.

This sungrazing comet will come closest to the Sun in November 2013, and the debate is on whether it will dazzle the skies and be visible in the daytime or fizzle out due to its close proximity to the Sun.

The movie shows a sequence of Hubble observations taken over a 43-minute span, compressed into five seconds. In that 43 minutes, the comet traveled about 55,000 km (34,000 miles). ISON streaks silently against the background stars.

Source: HubbleSite