Itching to watch a meteor shower and don’t mind getting up at an early hour? Good because this should be a great year for the annual Eta Aquarid (AY-tuh ah-QWAR-ids) shower which peaks on Thursday and Friday mornings May 5-6. While the shower is best viewed from tropical and southern latitudes, where a single observer might see between 25-40 meteors an hour, northern views won’t be too shabby. Expect to see between 10-15 per hour in the hours before dawn.
Most showers trace their parentage to a particular comet. The Perseids of August originate from dust strewn along the orbit of comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, which drops by the inner solar system every 133 years after “wintering” for decades just beyond the orbit of Pluto.
The upcoming Eta Aquarids have the best known and arguably most famous parent of all: Halley’s Comet. Twice each year, Earth’s orbital path intersects dust and minute rock particles strewn by Halley during its cyclic 76-year journey from just beyond Uranus to within the orbit of Venus.
Our first pass through Halley’s remains happens this week, the second in late October during the Orionid meteor shower. Like bugs hitting a windshield, the grains meet their demise when they smash into the atmosphere at 147,000 mph (237,000 km/hr) and fire up for a brief moment as meteors. Most comet grains are only crumb-sized and don’t have a chance of reaching the ground as meteorites. To date, not a single meteorite has ever been positively associated with a particular shower.
The farther south you live, the higher the shower radiant will appear in the sky and the more meteors you’ll spot. A low radiant means less sky where meteors might be seen. But it also means visits from “earthgrazers”. These are meteors that skim or graze the atmosphere at a shallow angle and take many seconds to cross the sky. Several years back, I saw a couple Eta Aquarid earthgrazers during a very active shower. One other plus this year — no moon to trouble the view, making for ideal conditions especially if you can observe from a dark sky.
From mid-northern latitudes the radiant or point in the sky from which the meteors will appear to originate is low in the southeast before dawn. At latitude 50° north the viewing window lasts about 1 1/2 hours before the light of dawn encroaches; at 40° north, it’s a little more than 2 hours. If you live in the southern U.S. you’ll have nearly 3 hours of viewing time with the radiant 35° high.
Grab a reclining chair, face east and kick back for an hour or so between 3 and 4:30 a.m. An added bonus this spring season will be hearing the first birdsong as the sky brightens toward the end of your viewing session. And don’t forget the sights above: a spectacular Milky Way arching across the southern sky and the planets of Mars and Saturn paired up in the southwestern sky.
Meteor shower members can appear in any part of the sky, but if you trace their paths in reverse, they’ll all point back to the radiant. Other random meteors you might see are called sporadics and not related to the Eta Aquarids. Meteor showers take on the name of the constellation from which they originate.
Aquarius is home to at least two showers. This one’s called the Eta Aquarids because it emanates from near the star Eta Aquarii. An unrelated shower, the Delta Aquarids, is active in July and early August. Don’t sweat it if weather doesn’t cooperate the next couple mornings. The shower will be active throughout the weekend, too.
On March 22, Comet P/2016 BA14 (Pan-STARRS) flew just 2.2 million miles (3.5 million kilometers) from Earth, making it the third closest comet ever recorded. The last time a comet appeared on our doorstep was in 1770, when Lexell’s Comet breezed by at about half that distance. Through a telescope, comet BA14 looked (and still looks) like a faint star, though time exposures reveal a short, weak tail. With an excellent map and large amateur telescope you might still find it making a bead across the Big Dipper and constellation Bootes tonight through the weekend.
Flyby Comet Imaged by Radar
While normal telescopes show few details, NASA’s Goldstone Solar System Radar in California’s Mojave Desert pinged P/2016 BA14 with radar over three nights during closest approach and created a series of crisp, detailed images from the returning echoes. They show a bigger comet than expected — about 3,000 feet (one kilometer) across — and resolve features as small as 26 feet (8 meters) across.
“The radar images show that the comet has an irregular shape: looks like a brick on one side and a pear on the other,” said Shantanu Naidu, a researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “We can see quite a few signatures related to topographic features such as large flat regions, small concavities and ridges on the surface of the nucleus.”
I honestly thought we’d see a more irregular shape assuming that astronomers were correct in thinking that BA14 broke off from its parent 252P/LINEAR though it’s possible it happened so long ago that the “damage” has been repaired by vaporizing ice softening its contours.
Radar also shows that the comet is rotating on its axis once every 35 to 40 hours. While radar eyes focused on BA14, Vishnu Reddy, of the Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, Arizona, used the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii to examine the comet in infrared light. He discovered its dark surface reflects less than 3% of the sunlight that falls on it. The infrared data is expected to yield clues of the comet’s composition as well.
Comets are exceptionally dark objects often compared to the appearance of a fresh asphalt road or parking lot. They appear bright in photos because seen against the blackness of space, they’re still reflective enough to stand out. Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, still the apple of the orbiter Rosetta’s eye, is similarly dark, reflecting about 4% of sunlight.
What makes comets so dark even though they composed primarily of ice? Astronomers believe a comet grows a dark ‘skin’ both from accumulated dust and irradiation of its pristine ices by cosmic rays. Cosmic rays loosen oxygen atoms from water ice, freeing them to combine with simple carbon molecules present on comets to form larger, more complex and darker compounds resembling tars and crude oil. Dust settles on a comet’s surface after it’s set free from ice that vaporizes in sunlight.
I live in Minnesota, where our annual State Fair features every kind of deep-fried food you can imagine: deep-fried Twinkies, deep-fried fruit, deep-fried bacon and even deep-fried Smores. Just now, I can’t shake the thought that comets are just another deep-fried confection made of pristine, 4.5-billion-year-old ice toasted by eons of sunlight and cosmic bombardment.
ESA’s Philae lander, the first spacecraft to successfully soft-land on the surface of a comet and former piggyback partner to Rosetta, has not been in communication since July of 2015 and, with 67P now six months past perihelion and heading deeper out into the Solar System, it’s not likely it will ever be heard from again.
2015 looks like a fantastic year for the Geminids. With the Moon just 3 days past new and setting at the end of evening twilight, conditions couldn’t be more ideal. Provided the weather cooperates! But even there we get a break. With a maximum of 120 meteors per hour, the shower is expected to peak around 18:00 UT (1 p.m. EST, 10 a.m. PST) December 14th, making for two nights of approximately equal activity: Sunday night Dec. 13-14 and Monday night Dec. 14-15. Continue reading “Viewing Guide to the 2015 Geminid Meteor Shower”
Amateur astronomer Chris Schur of Arizona had only five minutes to observe and photograph Comet Catalina this morning before twilight got the better of the night. In that brief time, he secured two beautiful images and made a quick observation through his 80mm refractor. He writes:
“Very difficult observation on this one. (I observed) it visually with the 35mm Panoptic ocular. It was a round, slightly condensed object with no sign of the twin tails that show up in the images. After five minutes, we lost it visually as it was 2° degrees up in bright twilight. Images show it for a longer time and a beautiful emerald green head with two tails forming a Y shaped fan.”
Schur estimated the comet’s brightness at around magnitude +6. What appears to be the dust tail extends to the lower right (southeast) with a narrower ion tail pointing north. With its twin tails, I’m reminded of a soaring eagle or perhaps a turkey vulture rocking back and forth on its wings. While they scavenge for food, Catalina soaks up sunlight.
I also headed out before dawn for a look. After a failed attempt to spot the new visitor on Saturday, I headed down to the Lake Superior shoreline at 5:30 a.m. today and waited until the comet rose above the murk. Using 7×50 binoculars in a similar narrow observing window, I could barely detect it as a small, fuzzy spot 2.5° south of 4th magnitude Lambda Virginis at 5:50 a.m. 10 minutes after the start of astronomical twilight. The camera did better!
With the comet climbing about 1° per day, seeing conditions and viewing time will continue to improve. The key to seeing it is finding a location with an unobstructed view to the southeast — that’s why I chose the lake — and getting out while it’s still dark to allow time to identify the star field and be ready when the comet rises to greet your gaze.
Alan Hale, discoverer of Comet Hale-Bopp,also tracked down Catalina this morning with an 8-inch (20-cm) reflector at 47x. He reported its magnitude at ~+6.1 with a 2-arc-minute, well-condensed coma and a faint wisp of tail to the southeast. In an e-mail this morning, Hale commented on the apparent odd angle of the dust tail:
“Since the comet is on the far side of the sun as seen from Earth, with the typical dust tail lagging behind, that would seem to create the somewhat strange direction. It (the tail) almost seems to be directed toward the Sun, but it’s a perspective effect.”
There were side benefits to getting up early today. Three bright planets lit up Leo’s tail and Virgo’s “Cup” and a magnificent display of zodiacal light rose from the lake to encompass not only the comet but all the planets as well.
If you love watching comets and live north of the equator, you’ve been holding your breath a l-o-n-g time for C/2013 US10 Catalina to make its northern debut. I’m thrilled to report the wait is over. The comet just passed perihelion on Nov. 15th and has begun its climb into morning twilight.
The first post-perihelion photo, taken on Nov. 19th by astrophotographer Ajay Talwar from Devasthal Observatory high in the Indian Himalayas, show it as a starry dot with a hint of a tail only 1° above the eastern horizon at mid-twilight. Additional photos made on the following mornings show the comet inching up from the eastern horizon into better view. Estimates of its current brightness range from magnitude +6.8-7.0.
Talwar, who teaches astrophotography classesand is a regular contributor to The World at Night (TWAN), drove 9 hours from his home to the Himalaya mountains, then climbed up the observatory dome to get enough horizon to photograph the comet. The window of opportunity was very narrow; Talwar had only 10 minutes to bag his images before the comet was overwhelmed by zodiacal light and twilight glow. When asked if it was visible in binoculars, he thought it would be but had too little time to check despite bringing a pair along.
A difficult object at the moment, once it frees itself from the horizon haze in about a week, Catalina should be easily visible in ordinary binoculars. Watch for it to gradually brighten through the end of the year, peaking around magnitude +5.5 — just barely naked eye — in late December and early January, when it will be well-placed high in the northeastern sky near the star Arcturus (see map). Matter of fact, on the first morning of the new year, it creeps only 1/2° southwest of the star for a splendid conjunction.
Halloween 2013 was an auspicious one. That’s when Comet C/2013 US10 was first picked up by the Catalina Sky Survey. The “US10” part comes from initial observations that suggested it was an asteroid. Additional photos and observations instead revealed a fuzzy comet on a steeply tilted orbit headed for the inner Solar System after a long sojourn in the Oort Cloud.
Its sunward journey has been nothing short of legendary, requiring several million years of inbound travel from the frigid fringe to the relative warmth of the inner Solar System. Catalina will pass closest to Earth on Jan. 12th at 66.9 million miles (107.7 million km) before buzzing off into interstellar space. Yes, interstellar. Perturbations by the planets have converted its orbit into a one-way ticket outta here.
When using the maps above, keep in mind they show the comet’s changing position, but the constellations and planets can only be shown for the one date, Nov. 21st. Like the comet, they’ll also be slowly sliding upward in the coming days and mornings due to Earth’s revolution around the Sun; stars that are near the horizon on Nov. 21 at 5:30 or 6 a.m. will be considerably higher up in a darker sky by the same time in December. Adding the shift of the stars to that of the comet, Catalina gains about 1° of altitude per day in the coming two weeks.
When you go out to find Catalina in binoculars, note its location on the map and then use the stars as steppingstones, starting with a bright obvious one like Spica and “stepping” from there to the next until you arrive at the one closest to the comet.
I’m so looking forward to finding Catalina. Nothing like a potentially naked eye comet to warm up those cold December mornings. Mark your calendar for the morning of Dec. 7th, when this rare visitor will join Venus and the crescent Moon in the east at the start of morning twilight. See you in spirit at dawn!
How would you like to see one of the most famous comets with your own eyes? Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko plies the morning sky, a little blot of fuzzy light toting an amazing visitor along for the ride — the Rosetta spacecraft. When you look at the coma and realize a human-made machine is buzzing around inside, it seems unbelievable.
If you have a 10-inch or larger telescope, or you’re an experienced amateur with an 8-inch and pristine skies, 67P is within your grasp. The comet glows right around magnitude +12, about as bright as it will get this apparition. Periodic comets generally appear brightest around and shortly after perihelion or closest approach to the Sun, which for 67P/C-G occurred back on August 13.
You’ll be looking for a small, 1-arc-minute-diameter, compact, circular patch of nebulous light shortly before dawn when it’s highest in the east. Rosetta’s Comet will spend the remainder of August slicing across Gemini the Twins north of an nearly parallel to the ecliptic. I spotted 67P/C-G for the first time this go-round about a week ago in my 15-inch (37 cm) reflector. While it appears like a typical faint comet, thanks to Rosetta, we know this particular rough and tumble mountain of ice better than any previous comet. Photographs show rugged cliffs, numerous cracks due to the expansion and contraction of ice, blowholes that serve as sources for jets and smooth plains blanketed in fallen dust.
The jets are geyser-like sprays of dust and gas that loft grit and rocks from the comet’s interior and surface into space to create a coma or temporary atmosphere. This is what you’ll see in your telescope. And if you’re patient, you’ll even be able to catch this glowing tadpole on the move. I was surprised at its speed. After just 20 minutes, thanks to numerous field stars that acted as references, I could easily spot the comet’s eastward movement using a magnification of 245x.
Tomorrow morning, 67P/C-G passes very close to the magnitude +5 star Omega Geminorum. While this will make it easy to locate, the glare may swamp the comet. Set your alarm for an hour before dawn’s start to allow time to set up a telescope, dark-adapt your eyes and track down the field where the comet will be that morning using low magnification.
Once you’ve centered 67P/C-G’s position, increase the power to around 100x-150x and use averted vision to look for a soft, fuzzy patch of light. If you see nothing, take it to the next level (around 200-250x) and carefully search the area. The higher the magnification, the darker the field of view and easier it will be to spot it.
Besides being relatively faint, the comet doesn’t get very high in the east before the onset of twilight. Low altitude means the atmosphere absorbs a share of the comet’s light, making it appear even fainter. Not that I want to dissuade you from looking! There’s nothing like seeing real 67P photons not to mention the adventure and sense of accomplishment that come from finding the object on your own.
As we advance into late summer and early fall, 67P/C-G will appear higher up but also be fading. Now through about August 27 and again from September 10-24 will be your best viewing times. That’s when the Moon’s absent from the sky.
Given the comet’s current distance from Earth of 165 million miles and apparent visual size of just shy of 1 arc minute, the coma measures very approximately 30,000 miles across. Rosetta orbits the comet’s 2.5-mile-long icy nucleus at a distance of about 115 miles (186 km), meaning it’s snug up against the nuclear center from our point of view on the ground.
Call it the comet that squeaked by most northern skywatchers. Comet C/2014 Q1 PanSTARRS barely made an appearance at dawn in mid-June when it crept a few degrees above the northeastern horizon at dawn. Only a few determined comet watchers spotted the creature.
Two weeks later in early July it slipped into the evening and brightened to magnitude +4. But decreasing elongation from the Sun and bright twilight made it virtually impossible to see. Now it’s returned — with three tails!
After taunting northerners, it’s finally come out of hiding, climbing into the western sky during evening twilight for observers at low and southern latitudes. C/2014 Q1 peaked at about 3rd magnitude at perihelion on July 6, when it missed the Sun by just 28 million miles (45 million km). The comet is now on a collision course with the Venus-Jupiter planet pair. Not a real collision, but the three will all be within about 7° of each other from July 21 to about the 24th. A pair of wide-field binoculars will catch all three in the same view.
More striking, a sliver Moon will hover just 2.5° above the comet on Saturday the 18th, one day before its closest approach to Earth of 109.7 million miles (176.6 million km). Q1 has been fading since perihelion but not too much. Australian observers Michael Mattiazzo and Paul Camilleri pegged it at magnitude +5.2 on July 15-16. Although it wasn’t visible with the naked eye because of a bright sky, binoculars and small telescopes provided wonderful views.
Here’s Mattiazzo’s observation:
“The view through my 25 x 100 mm binoculars showed a lovely parabolic dust hood about half a degree to the east,” he wrote in an e-mail communication. “Photographically the comet showed three separate tails, a forked ion tail about 1.5° long. Embedded within this was the main dust tail about half a degree long to the east and an unusual feature at right angles to the main tail — a broad “dust trail” 1° long to the north”.
Mattiazzo points out that the unusual trail, known as a Type III dust tail, indicates a massive release of dust particles around the time of perihelion. This comet got cooked!
In the coming nights, C/2014 Q1 will cool, fade and slide into a darker sky and may be glimpsed with the naked eye before moving into binoculars-only territory. It should remain an easy target for small telescopes through August. Use the map above to help you find it. For longer-term viewing, try this map.
While I’m happy for our southern brothers and sisters, many of us in the north have that empty stomach feeling when it comes to bright comets. We’ve done well by C/2014 Q2 Lovejoy (still visible at magnitude +10 in the northern sky) for much of the year, but unless a bright, new comet comes flying out of nowhere, we’ll have to wait till mid-November. That’s when Comet Catalina (C/2013 US10)will hopefully jolt us out of bed at dawn with naked eye comet written all over it.
Halley’s Comet, also known as 1P/Halley, is the most well known comet in the Solar System. As a periodic (or short-term comet) it has orbital period that is less than 200 years, and has therefore been observed more than once by people here on Earth over the centuries.
It’s appearance in the skies above Earth has been noted since ancient times, and was associated with both bad and good omens by many cultures. But in truth, its behavior is no different than any short-term visitor that swings by from time to time. And its visits have become entirely predictable!
Discovery: Halley’s Comet has been observed and recorded by astronomers since at least 240 BCE, with clear references to the comet being made by Chinese, Babylonian, and medieval European chroniclers. However, these records did not recognize that the comet was the same object reappearing over time. It was not until 1705 that English astronomer Edmond Halley, who used Newton’s Three Laws of Motion to determine that it was periodic.
Until the Renaissance, astronomers’ believed that comets – consistent with Aristotle’s views – were merely disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere. This idea was disproved in 1577 by Tycho Brahe, who used parallax measurements to show that comets must lie beyond the Moon. However, for another century, astronomers would continue to believe that comets traveled in a straight line through the Solar System rather than orbiting the Sun.
In 1687, in his Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica, Isaac Newton theorized that comets could travel in an orbit of some sort. Unfortunately, he was unable to develop a coherent model for explaining this at the time. As such, it was Edmond Halley – Newton’s friend and editor – who showed how Newton’s theories on motion and gravity could be applied to comets.
In his 1705 publication, Synopsis of the Astronomy of Comets, Halley calculated the effect that Jupiter and Saturn’s gravitational fields would have on the path of comets. Using these calculations and recorded observations made of comets, he was able to determine that a comet observed in 1682 followed the same path as a comet observed in 1607.
Pairing this with another observation made in 1531, he concluded that these observations were all of the same comet, and predicted that it would return in another 76 years. His prediction proved to be correct, as it was seen on Christmas Day, 1758, by a German farmer and amateur astronomer named Johann Georg Palitzsch.
His predictions not only constituted the first successful test of Newtonian physics, it was also the first time that an object besides the planets was shown to be orbiting the Sun. Unfortunately for Halley, he did not live to see the comet’s return (having died in 1742). But thanks to French astronomer Nicolas Louis de Lacaille, the comet was named in Halley’s honor in 1759.
Origin and Orbit: Like all comets that take less than about 200 years to orbit the Sun, Halley’s Comet is believed to have originated from the Kuiper Belt. Periodically, some of these blocks of rock and ice – which are essentially leftover matter from the formation of the Solar System some 4.6 billion years ago – are pulled deeper into the Solar System and becomes active comets.
In 2008, another point of origin for the Halley-type comets had been proposed when a trans-Neptunian object with a retrograde orbit similar to Halley’s was discovered. Known as 2008 KV42, this comet’s orbit takes it from just outside the orbit of Uranus to twice the distance of Pluto. This suggests that Halley ‘s Comet could in fact be member of a new population of small Solar System bodies that is unrelated to the Kuiper Belt.
Halley is classified as a periodic or short-period comet, one with an orbit lasting 200 years or less. This contrasts with long-period comets, whose orbits last for thousands of years and which originate from the Oort Cloud – the sphere of cometary bodies that is 20,000 – 50,000 AU from the Sun at its inner edge. Other comets that resemble Halley’s orbit, with periods of between 20 to 200 years, are called Halley-type comets. To date, only 54 have been observed, compared with nearly 400 identified Jupiter-family comets.
Halley’s orbital period over the last 3 centuries has been between 75–76 years, although it has varied between 74–79 years since 240 BC. Its orbit around the Sun is highly elliptical. It has a perihelion (i.e. the point where it is nearest the Sun) of just 0.6 AU, which places it between the orbits of Mercury and Venus. Meanwhile, it’s aphelion – the farthest distance from the Sun – is 35 AU, the same distance as Pluto.
Unusual for an object in the Solar System, Halley’s orbit is retrograde – which means that it orbits the Sun in the opposite direction to the planets (or clockwise from above the Sun’s north pole). Due to the retrograde orbit, it has one of the highest velocities relative to the Earth of any object in the Solar System.
The orbits of the Halley-type comets suggest that they were originally long-period comets whose orbits were perturbed by the gravity of the gas giants and directed into the inner Solar System. If Halley was once a long-period comet, it is likely to have originated in the Oort Cloud. However, Halley is believed to have been a short-term comet for the past 16,000–200,000 years.
Because its orbit comes close to Earth’s in two places, Halley is the parent body of two meteor showers: the Eta Aquariids in early May, and the Orionids in late October. Observations conducted around the time of Halley’s appearance in 1986, however, suggest that the Eta Aquarid meteor shower might not originate from Halley’s Comet, although it might be perturbed by it.
Structure and Composition: As Halley approaches the Sun, it expels jets of sublimating gas from its surface, which knock it very slightly off its orbital path. This process causes the comet to form a bright tail of ionized gas (ion tail), and a faint one made up of dust particles. The ion tail is also known as a coma (a small atmosphere) which spans up to 100,000 km across and consists of violatiles such as water, methane, ammonia and carbon dioxide.
Despite the vast size of its coma, Halley’s nucleus is relatively small – barely 15 kilometers long, 8 kilometers wide and roughly 8 kilometers thick. Its mass is also relatively low (an estimated 2.2 × 1014 kg, or 242.5 billion tons) and its average density is about 0.6 g/cm3, indicating that it is made of a large number of small pieces held loosely together.
Spacecraft observations have shown that the gases ejected from the nucleus were 80% water vapor, 17% carbon monoxide and 3–4% carbon dioxide, with traces of hydrocarbons (although more-recent sources give a value of 10% for carbon monoxide and also include traces of methane and ammonia).
The dust particles have been found to be primarily a mixture of carbon–hydrogen–oxygen–nitrogen (CHON) compounds – which are common in the outer Solar System – and silicates, like those found in terrestrial rocks. At one time, it was thought that Halley could have delivered water to Earth in the distant past – based on the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen found in the comet’s water that showed it to be chemically similar to the Earth’s oceans. However, subsequent observations have indicated that this is unlikely.
The ESA’s Giotto (1985-1992) and Russia’s Vega missions (1986) gave planetary scientists their first view of Halley’s surface and structure. The images could only capture roughly 25% of the comet’s surface, but nevertheless revealed an extremely varied topography – with hills, mountains, ridges, depressions, and at least one crater.
Role in Myths and Superstitions: As already noted, Halley’s Comet has a long and rich history when it comes to being observed by humans. Including its most recent visits, Halley’s Comet has been visible from Earth on 30 separate occasions. The earliest record of which were the Shih Chi and Wen Hsien Thung Khao chronicles, written in China ca. 240 BCE.
While it is believed that Babylonian scribes recorded the appearance of Halley’s Comet when it returned in 164 and 87 BCE, it’s most famous appearance occurred shortly before the 1066 invasion of England by William the Conqueror. Whereas King Harold of England saw the comet as a bad omen, William and his forces interpreted it as a sign of their impending victory (at least according to legend).
Throughout the Middle Ages, the appearances of comets in the night sky were seen as heralds of bad news, indicating that either a person of royal standing had died, or that dark days lay ahead. This is perhaps owing to what was seen as the erratic and unpredictable behavior of comets, when compared to the Sun, the Moon and the stars.
With the development of modern astronomy, this view of comets has been largely dispelled. However, there are many who still hold to the “doom and gloom” view of Halley’s Comet, believing that it will strike the Earth at some point and trigger an Extinction Level Event, the likes of which has not been seen since the Dinosaurs.
Disappearance:
Halley’s overall lifespan is difficult to predict, and opinions do vary. In 1989, Russian astronomers Boris Chirikov and Vitaly Vecheslavov performed an analysis of 46 apparitions of Halley’s Comet taken from historical records and computer simulations. Their study showed that the comet’s dynamics were chaotic and unpredictable over long timescales, and indicated that its lifetime could be as long as 10 million years.
In 2002, David C. Jewitt conducted a study that indicated that Halley will likely evaporate, or split in two, within the next few tens of thousands of years. Alternately, Jewitt predicted that it could survive long enough to be ejected from the Solar System entirely within a few hundred thousand years.
Meanwhile, observations conducted by D.W. Hughes et al. suggests that Halley’s nucleus has been reduced in mass by 80–90% over the last 2000–3000 revolutions (i.e. 150,000 – 230,000 years). By their estimations, it would not be surprising at all if the comet evaporated entirely within the next 300 revolutions or so (approx. 25,000 years).
The last time Halley’s Comet was seen was in 1986, which means it will not reappear until 2061. As always, some are choosing to prepare for the worst – believing its next pass will signal the end of life as we know it – while others are contemplating if they will live long enough to witness it.
Universe Today has articles on famous comets and distant Halley’s Comet.
67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko certainly isn’t a comet that dreads sundown. Images acquired by the OSIRIS instrument aboard ESA’s Rosetta spacecraft in April 2015 reveal that some of the comet’s dust jets keep on firing even after the Sun has “set” across those regions. This shows that, as the comet continues to approach its August perihelion date, it’s now receiving enough solar radiation to warm deeper subsurface materials.
“Only recently have we begun to observe dust jets persisting even after sunset,” said OSIRIS Principal Investigator Holger Sierks from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research.
The image above was captured by OSIRIS on April 25 and shows active jets near the center, originating from shadowed areas on the comet’s smaller “head” lobe. The region is called Ma’at – see maps of 67P’s regions here and here.
(Also it looks kind of like an overexposed image of a giant angry lemming. But that’s pareidolia for you.)
It’s thought that the comet has now come close enough to the Sun – 220.8 million kilometers, at the time of this writing – that it can store heat below its surface… enough to keep the sublimation process going within buried volatiles well after it rotates out of direct solar illumination.
Comet 67P and Rosetta (and Philae too!) will come within 185.9 million km of the Sun during perihelion on Aug. 13, 2015 before heading back out into the Solar System. Find out where they are now.