Drake Equation Archives

November 14, 2024November 14, 2024 by Matt Williams

New Study Examines Cosmic Expansion, Leading to a New Drake Equation

An illustration of cosmic expansion. Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab

In 1960, in preparation for the first SETI conference, Cornell astronomer Frank Drake formulated an equation to calculate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our Milky Way. Rather than being a scientific principle, the equation was intended as a thought experiment that summarized the challenges SETI researchers faced. This became known as the Drake Equation, which remains foundational to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) to this day. Since then, astronomers and astrophysicists have proposed many updates and revisions for the equation.

This is motivated by ongoing research into the origins of life on Earth and the preconditions that led to its emergence. In a recent study, astrophysicists led by Durham University produced a new model for the emergence of life that focuses on the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion (aka. the Hubble Constant) and the number of stars formed. Since stars are essential to the emergence of life as we knot it, this model could be used to estimate the probability of intelligent life in our Universe and beyond (i.e., in a multiverse scenario).

August 7, 2024August 9, 2024 by Matt Williams

New Study Suggests that Our Galaxy is Crowded or Empty. Both are Equally Terrifying!

Gaia's all-sky view of our Milky Way Galaxy and neighbouring galaxies, based on measurements of nearly 1.7 billion stars. The map shows the total brightness and colour of stars observed by the ESA satellite in each portion of the sky between July 2014 and May 2016. Brighter regions indicate denser concentrations of especially bright stars, while darker regions correspond to patches of the sky where fewer bright stars are observed. The colour representation is obtained by combining the total amount of light with the amount of blue and red light recorded by Gaia in each patch of the sky. The bright horizontal structure that dominates the image is the Galactic plane, the flattened disc that hosts most of the stars in our home Galaxy. In the middle of the image, the Galactic centre appears vivid and teeming with stars. More information on: http://sci.esa.int/gaia/60169-gaia-s-sky-in-colour/

Is there intelligent life in the Universe? And if so, just how common is it? Or perhaps the question should be, what are the odds that those engaged in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) will encounter it someday? For decades, scientists have hotly debated this topic, and no shortage of ink has been spilled on the subject. From the many papers and studies that have been written on the subject, two main camps have emerged: those who believe life is common in our galaxy (aka. SETI Optimists) and those who maintain that extraterrestrial intelligence is either rare or non-existent (SETI Pessimists).

In a recent paper, David Kipping (Prof. “Cool Worlds” himself) and Geraint Lewis examined this debate more closely and offered a fresh take based on a form of probability analysis known as Jayne’s Experiment. By applying this method to astrobiology and the Drake Equation, they concluded that the existence of intelligent life in our galaxy may be an “all or nothing” proposition. To quote the late and great scientist and science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke: “Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe, or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”

July 2, 2024July 2, 2024 by Scott Alan Johnston

Plate Tectonics Might Only Occur on 0.003% of Planets. That Makes Earth Very Special Indeed.

Plate tectonics: Image Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Plate tectonics, oceans, and continents might just be the secret ingredients for complex life on Earth. And if these geological features are rare elsewhere in the universe, then perhaps that explains why we haven’t yet discovered intelligent alien life. New research from American and Swiss Earth scientists suggests that these ingredients represent missing variables in the famous Drake equation, devised more than half a century ago to estimate the chances of finding advanced civilizations in our galaxy. Including these new variables could completely rewrite the probability of detecting intelligent life in the Milky Way.

May 18, 2024May 18, 2024 by Laurence Tognetti

Did Earth’s Multicellular Life Depend on Plate Tectonics?

Graphic depicting the last 1.6 billion years of Earth’s tectonic history. (Credit: Figure 2 from Stern & Gerya (2024))

How did complex life emerge and evolve on the Earth and what does this mean for finding life beyond Earth? This is what a recent study published in Nature hopes to address as a pair of researchers investigated how plate tectonics, oceans, and continents are responsible for the emergence and evolution of complex life across our planet and how this could address the Fermi Paradox while attempting to improve the Drake Equation regarding why we haven’t found life in the universe and the parameters for finding life, respectively. This study holds the potential to help researchers better understand the criterion for finding life beyond Earth, specifically pertaining to the geological processes exhibited on Earth.

April 8, 2024April 8, 2024 by Evan Gough

Does the Rise of AI Explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Will AI become indispensable in an age of "big data" astronomy? Credit: DALL-E

Artificial Intelligence is making its presence felt in thousands of different ways. It helps scientists make sense of vast troves of data; it helps detect financial fraud; it drives our cars; it feeds us music suggestions; its chatbots drive us crazy. And it’s only getting started.

Are we capable of understanding how quickly AI will continue to develop? And if the answer is no, does that constitute the Great Filter?

February 27, 2024February 27, 2024 by Evan Gough

Some Intelligent Civilizations Will Be Trapped on their Worlds

With thousands of exoplanets discovered so far, astronomers are learning how different planets can be. What if intelligent alien civilizations arise on extremely different habitable worlds? Some civilizations could develop space exploration technologies, but others would be trapped underwater, under ice, or in enormous gravity wells. How could they escape? Image Credit: DALL-E

Evolution has produced a wondrously diverse variety of lifeforms here on Earth. It just so happens that talking primates with opposable thumbs rose to the top and are building a spacefaring civilization. And we’re land-dwellers. But what about other planets? If the dominant species on an ocean world builds a technological civilization of some sort, would they be able to escape their ocean home and explore space?

February 13, 2024February 13, 2024 by Evan Gough

Cosmic Dust Could Spread Life from World to World Across the Galaxy

Could life spread throughout the galaxy on tiny grains of dust? It would be a perilous journey, but new research shows its possible and calculates how long it would take to spread. Image Credit: ESO

Does life appear independently on different planets in the galaxy? Or does it spread from world to world? Or does it do both?

New research shows how life could spread via a basic, simple pathway: cosmic dust.

September 28, 2023September 28, 2023 by Matt Williams

If Earth is Average, We Should Find Extraterrestrial Life Within 60 Light-Years

Astronomers have detected thousands of planets, including dozens that are potentially habitable. To winnow them down, they need to understand their atmospheres and other factors. (NASA Illustration)

In 1960, while preparing for the first meeting on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), legendary astronomer and SETI pioneer Dr. Frank Drake unveiled his probabilistic equation for estimating the number of possible civilizations in our galaxy – aka. The Drake Equation. A key parameter in this equation was n_e, the number of planets in our galaxy capable of supporting life – aka. “habitable.” At the time, astronomers were not yet certain other stars had systems of planets. But thanks to missions like Kepler, 5523 exoplanets have been confirmed, and another 9,867 await confirmation!

Based on this data, astronomers have produced various estimates for the number of habitable planets in our galaxy – at least 100 billion, according to one estimate! In a recent study, Professor Piero Madau introduced a mathematical framework for calculating the population of habitable planets within 100 parsecs (326 light-years) of our Sun. Assuming Earth and the Solar System are representative of the norm, Madau calculated that this volume of space could contain as much as 11,000 Earth-sized terrestrial (aka. rocky) exoplanets that orbit within their stars’ habitable zones (HZs).

August 9, 2023April 14, 2024 by Matt Williams

Penn State SETI Symposium Opens with Commemoration of Dr. Frank Drake

Dr. Frank Drake (1930 -2022). Credit: Danielle Futselaar

Is humanity alone in the Universe? Is anyone out there? Where is everybody? And what happens if and when we make contact with them? These and other questions were the subjects of the 2023 Penn State SETI Symposium hosted by the Penn State Extraterrestrial Intelligence Center (PSETI) from June 19th-22nd, 2023. The event featured prominent speakers from various research fields and disciplines discussing the challenges, history, and future of SETI. In the great tradition established by Dr. Frank Drake, they also addressed key issues related to the search for intelligent life and what we might find someday.

The summit opened with a series of overviews, a review of the past year (since the last summit), and a presentation by Dr. Rebecca Charbonneau, a science historian and Jansky Fellow at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO). Her presentation, titled “Frank Drake and his Place in History,” provided a retrospective on the life and accomplishments of famed radio astronomer and SETI pioneer Dr. Frank Drake (for whom the Drake Equation is named), how he altered the character of the field, and how history will remember him.

September 3, 2022June 3, 2024 by Nancy Atkinson

Legendary Astronomer Frank Drake has Passed Away

Frank Drake by the Tatel Telescope at the Green Bank Observatory. Credit: NRAO/NSF/AUI

Legendary astronomer Frank Drake has passed away at the age of 92. Known primarily for his Drake Equation — an estimate of the probability of intelligent extraterrestrial life — he pioneered the field of SETI, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, and was a noted astronomer and astrophysicist. His work and life have left an indelible mark on humanity and given hope and wonder to all our hearts.