global warming Archives

September 21, 2024September 21, 2024 by Matt Williams

Advanced Civilizations Will Overheat Their Planets Within 1,000 Years

Global temperature increases over the past thirty years, visualized. Credit: NOAA/NCEI

Earth’s average global temperatures have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Revolution. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), Earth has been heating up at a rate of 0.06 °C (0.11 °F) per decade since 1850 – or about 1.11 °C (2 °F) in total. Since 1982, the average annual increase has been 0.20 °C (0.36 °F) per decade, more than three times as fast. What’s more, this trend is projected to increase by between 1.5 and 2 °C (2.7 to 3.6 °F) by mid-century, possibly more! This is a direct consequence of burning fossil fuels, which has increased exponentially since the mid-19th century.

Depending on the extent of temperature increases, the impact on Earth’s habitability could be catastrophic. In a recent study, a team of scientists examined how temperature increases are a long-term issue facing advanced civilizations and not just a matter of fossil fuel consumption. As they argue, rising planetary temperatures could be an inevitable result of the exponential growth of energy consumption. Their findings could have serious implications for astrobiology and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).

March 8, 2024March 8, 2024 by Matt Williams

Satellite Measurements Show That Global Carbon Emissions are Still Rising

Tracking carbon emissions and sinks to determine Earth's annual Global Carbon Budget. Credit: NASA GEOS

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), human activities have significantly impacted the planet. As global greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon dioxide) have continued to increase, so too have global temperatures – with severe ecological consequences. Between 2011 and 2020, global surface temperatures rose by an estimated 1.07 °C (2.01 °F) above the average in 1850–1900. At this rate, temperatures could further increase by 1.5 to 2 °C (2.7 to 3.6 °F) in the coming decades, depending on whether we can achieve net zero by 2050.

Unfortunately, the data for the past year is not encouraging. According to the 2023 Global Carbon Budget (GCB), an annual assessment of Earth’s carbon cycle, emissions in 2023 continued to rise by 1.1 percent compared to the previous year. This placed the total fossil fuel emissions from anthropogenic sources at 36.8 billion metric tons (over 40 US tons) of carbon dioxide, with an additional 4.1 billion metric tons (4.5 US tons) added by deforestation, extreme wildfires, and other sources. This trend indicates we are moving away from our goals and that things will get worse before they get better!

November 16, 2022November 16, 2022 by Matt Williams

Greenland’s ice Loss is Worse Than We Thought

Cumulative melt days on the Greenland Ice Sheet for the 2022 melt season (left) and difference from the 1981 to 2010 average melt days for the same period (right). Credit: NSIDC/T. Mote, University of Georgia

Climate change is the single greatest threat facing our planet today. Thanks to excess carbon emissions that have been growing steadily since the mid-20th century, average temperatures continue to rise worldwide. This leads to feedback mechanisms, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather, drought, wildfires, and glacial melting. This includes the Arctic Ice Pack, the East Antarctic glacier, and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), which are rapidly melting and increasing global sea levels.

Worse than that, the disappearance of the world’s ice sheets means that Earth’s surface and oceans absorb more heat, driving global temperatures even further. According to a new NASA-supported study by an international team of Earth scientists and glaciologists, the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an accelerating rate, much faster than existing models predict. According to these findings, far more ice will be lost from Greenland during the 21st century, which means its contribution to sea-level rise will be significantly higher.

October 4, 2022October 4, 2022 by Cathrine Versfeld

27 to 78 cm of sea Level Rise Could be Locked in From Melting Greenland ice Caps

Image: The latest research using satellite data has confirmed that rising sea levels are inevitable. Credit: Annie Spratt.

Recent climate research, published in the Nature Climate Change journal has confirmed that melting icecaps in Greenland will contribute a minimum of 27cm rise in ocean levels even if we collectively stop burning fossil fuels immediately. We have reached a “point of no return”. And what makes it worse is that this is the most conservative estimate, as it only factors the contribution made by the ice shelf in Greenland. Projections have also confirmed that overall planetary warming has exceeded the original estimates for global heating, and that we are in for a difficult millennium if drastic action isn’t taken immediately.

April 18, 2022April 18, 2022 by Brian Koberlein

When Will Humanity Become a Type I Civilization?

Dyson Sphere as Depicted in the videogame "Stellaris", developed and published by Paradox Interactive. Used with permission. Screenshot by author

There are several ways we can measure the progress of human civilization. Population growth, the rise and fall of empires, our technological ability to reach for the stars. But one simple measure is to calculate the amount of energy humans use at any given time. As humanity has spread and advanced, our ability to harness energy is one of our most useful skills. If one assumes civilizations on other planets might possess similar skills, the energy consumption of a species is a good rough measure of its technological prowess. This is the idea behind the Kardashev Scale.

March 11, 2022March 8, 2024 by Matt Williams

The IPCC Releases its 2022 Report on Climate Change, in Case you Needed Something Else to Worry About

Since 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed and tasked with advancing knowledge of humanity’s impact on the natural environment. Beginning in 1990, they have issued multiple reports on the natural, political, and economic impacts Climate Change will have, as well as possible options for mitigation and adaptation. On Feb. 27th, the IPCC released the second part of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) – “Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” – and the outlook isn’t good!

February 18, 2022February 18, 2022 by Evan Gough

As Temperatures Rise, Antarctica is Turning Green

Signy Island in the South Orkney Islands. Image Credit: By Ben Tullis from Cambridge, United Kingdom - Signy, the base and the bay, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5878735

The global climate is warming, and Earth’s polar regions are feeling the effects. A new study of the South Orkney Islands shows that the region has warmed significantly since the 1950s. The rise in warming in the South Orkneys exceeds the overall global warming.

As the islands warm, plant life is spreading.

August 16, 2021March 24, 2022 by Matt Williams

A new Assessment of the World’s Climate is out. The News Isn’t Good

In 2014, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). As with previous reports, AR5 contained the latest findings of Climate Change experts from all relevant disciplines, as well as projections about the near future. In short, the AR5 and its predecessors were assessments of the impact anthropogenic Climate Change was having on the planet and how we could avoid worst-case scenarios.

On Aug. 9^th, 2021, the IPCC released a report titled Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis. Combining the latest advances in climate science and multiple lines of evidence, this first report paints a rather bleak picture of the remainder of the 21^st century. At the same time, it presents a call to action and shows how mitigation strategies and reducing greenhouse gas emissions will ensure a better future for all.

January 30, 2021January 30, 2021 by Matt Williams

2020 Ties for the Hottest Year on Record

According to multiple sources – which includes NASA, the NOAA, the Berkeley Earth research group, and the Met Office Hadley Centre (UK) – global temperatures over the past few years have been some of the hottest on record. This is the direct result of anthropogenic factors like overpopulation, urbanization, deforestation, and increased greenhouse gas emissions (like carbon dioxide and methane).

According to a recent press release from NASA, in terms of global temperatures, 2020 was the hottest year on record – effectively tying it with 2016 (the previous record-holder). The release includes a dramatic video that illustrates average temperature increases since 1880 and the ecological crises that have taken place just this past year. This is yet another warning of how human agency is impacting the very systems we depend upon for our continued survival.

January 20, 2020January 20, 2020 by Evan Gough

According to NASA, 2019 Was the Second Hottest Year on Record

According to NASA and the NOAA, 2019 was the second hottest year on record. Image Credit: NASA/GISS

NASA and the NOAA just announced that 2019 was the second hottest year on record. It barely edged out 2016, the previous warmest year. And both 2019 and 2016 are part of the global warming trend: the last five years have been the warmest five years on record. And the last decade was the warmest decade.