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Human beings are bad at many things, but we’re particularly terrible at understanding probability in a rational way. We underestimate, overestimate and generally mess up probability. We’ll try to fix it here, but we’ll surely fail.
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I’m not saying it’s aliens, but it’s aliens. Actually, it’s almost certainly not aliens, or a wormhole, or a multiverse. When scientists discover something unusual, they make guesses about what’s happening. But Occam’s Razor encourages us to consider the probabilities of different events before making any concrete predictions.
Continue reading “Astronomy Cast Ep. 390: Occam’s Razor and the Problem with Probabilities”