SpaceX Seeking Tweets From The Final Frontier

SpaceX has been working to increase awareness of its Twitter account, @SpaceXer - this is to provide the public with greater awareness of the company's events and activities. Photo Credit: Alan Walters/awaltersphoto.com

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Space Exploration Technologies — or SpaceX as they are more commonly known — has gotten pretty good at launching rockets. Now they want the rest of the world to follow along – one Tweet at a time. The social media site Twitter allows users to post brief comments (under 140 characters). SpaceX views this as a means to keep the public informed about the company’s activities including the upcoming launch of the firm’s Falcon 9 rocket.

SpaceX can be found under the name of @SpaceXer. The NewSpace firm will post regular updates about the company’s activities on Twitter. SpaceX has been working to increase its public and media relations efforts lately. The push for more viewers on Twitter is part of these efforts.

“There are a lot of amazing things that are taking place at a daily basis at SpaceX,” said SpaceX’s Vice President of Communications Bobby Block. “We want to invite the public, everyone really, to follow these events on our Twitter account.”

SpaceX currently plans to launch the next of its Falcon 9 rockets this September. It will be another mission to prove out the Falcon 9’s readiness to begin cargo flights to the space station. For this mission, a flyby of the International Space Station is planned to test out communications equipment. The Dragon spacecraft will then reenter Earth’s atmosphere and splash down in the Pacific Ocean.

SpaceX is planning to launch a third of its Falcon 9 rockets this fall. This mission will send a Dragon Spacecraft on a flyby mission to the International Space Station to test rendezvous and communications equipment. Photo Credit: Alan Walters/awaltersphoto.com

This will be the third time that SpaceX has launched a Falcon 9 from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida. This past December SpaceX became the first private company to launch a spacecraft to orbit and retrieve it safely from the Pacific Ocean. It is accomplishments such as this that SpaceX wants to broadcast to the world.

“SpaceX has successfully demonstrated not only the viability of the Falcon 9 as a launch vehicle – but also the capabilities of the Dragon Spacecraft,” Block said. “This is just the beginning, now we want the world to come ride along with us.”

SpaceX was selected for not only the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) contract with NASA – which has a $1.6 billion value but for NASA’s Commercial Crew Development 2 (CCDev-02) contract as well. Add to that the many business deals that SpaceX has made to send payloads into orbit – and SpaceX has a lot to tweet about.

SpaceX and founder Elon Musk have made it public knowledge regarding their plans to one day launch astronauts to the International Space Station, build a far larger version of its Falcon 9 dubbed the “Falcon Heavy” and to reach out to the planet Mars. SpaceX thinks with plans such as these in the works, space fans and novices alike will be very interested in following along.

Of course, SpaceX is not the only space organization that has recognized the value of social media like Twitter. NASA has embraced Twitter, with almost all of the missions and spacecrafts having Twitter accounts, and fans are finding Twitter to be a great way to find out the latest details from space. Additionally, NASA regularly hosts “Tweetups” when large events are scheduled to take place, such as the upcoming final launch of the space shuttle program.

Are you plugged in? SpaceX is hoping that you soon will be - to their Twitter account - @SpaceXer Photo Credit: Alan Walters/awaltersphoto.com

Elon Musk: “Why the US Can Beat China”

Elon Musk. Credit: SpaceX

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“Whenever someone proposes to do something that has never been done before, there will always be skeptics,” says SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk. He distributed an email today, setting the record straight on SpaceX’s actual launch costs and prices, and he also outlines why he believes American innovation will trump countries like China in space –even though that country has the fastest growing economy in the world and lower labor rates than the US. Read Musk’s article below:

Whenever someone proposes to do something that has never been done before, there will always be skeptics. So when I started SpaceX, it was not surprising when people said we wouldn’t succeed. But now that we’ve successfully proven Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon, there’s been a steady stream of misinformation and doubt expressed about SpaceX’s actual launch costs and prices.
As noted last month by a Chinese government official, SpaceX currently has the best launch prices in the world and they don’t believe they can beat them. This is a clear case of American innovation trumping lower overseas labor rates.

I recognize that our prices shatter the historical cost models of government-led developments, but these prices are not arbitrary, premised on capturing a dominant share of the market, or “teaser” rates meant to lure in an eager market only to be increased later. These prices are based on known costs and a demonstrated track record, and they exemplify the potential of America’s commercial space industry.

Here are the facts:

The price of a standard flight on a Falcon 9 rocket is $54 million. We are the only launch company that publicly posts this information on our website (www.spacex.com). We have signed many legally binding contracts with both government and commercial customers for this price (or less). Because SpaceX is so vertically integrated, we know and can control the overwhelming majority of our costs. This is why I am so confident that our performance will increase and our prices will decline over time, as is the case with every other technology.

The average price of a full-up NASA Dragon cargo mission to the International Space Station is $133 million including inflation, or roughly $115m in today’s dollars, and we have a firm, fixed price contract with NASA for 12 missions. This price includes the costs of the Falcon 9 launch, the Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance and overhead, and all of the work required to integrate with the Space Station. If there are cost overruns, SpaceX will cover the difference. (This concept may be foreign to some traditional government space contractors that seem to believe that cost overruns should be the responsibility of the taxpayer.)

The total company expenditures since being founded in 2002 through the 2010 fiscal year were less than $800 million, which includes all the development costs for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon. Included in this $800 million are the costs of building launch sites at Vandenberg, Cape Canaveral and Kwajalein, as well as the corporate manufacturing facility that can support up to 12 Falcon 9 and Dragon missions per year. This total also includes the cost of five flights of Falcon 1, two flights of Falcon 9, and one up and back flight of Dragon.

The Falcon 9 launch vehicle was developed from a blank sheet to first launch in four and half years for just over $300 million. The Falcon 9 is an EELV class vehicle that generates roughly one million pounds of thrust (four times the maximum thrust of a Boeing 747) and carries more payload to orbit than a Delta IV Medium.

The Dragon spacecraft was developed from a blank sheet to the first demonstration flight in just over four years for about $300 million. Last year, SpaceX became the first private company, in partnership with NASA, to successfully orbit and recover a spacecraft. The spacecraft and the Falcon 9 rocket that carried it were designed, manufactured and launched by American workers for an American company. The Falcon 9/Dragon system, with the addition of a launch escape system, seats and upgraded life support, can carry seven astronauts to orbit, more than double the capacity of the Russian Soyuz, but at less than a third of the price per seat.

SpaceX has been profitable every year since 2007, despite dramatic employee growth and major infrastructure and operations investments. We have over 40 flights on manifest representing over $3 billion in revenues.

These are the objective facts, confirmed by external auditors. Moreover, SpaceX intends to make far more dramatic reductions in price in the long term when full launch vehicle reusability is achieved. We will not be satisfied with our progress until we have achieved this long sought goal of the space industry.

For the first time in more than three decades, America last year began taking back international market-share in commercial satellite launch. This remarkable turn-around was sparked by a small investment NASA made in SpaceX in 2006 as part of the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program. A unique public-private partnership, COTS has proven that under the right conditions, a properly incentivized contractor—even an all-American one—can develop extremely complex systems on rapid timelines and a fixed-price basis, significantly beating historical industry-standard costs.

China has the fastest growing economy in the world. But the American free enterprise system, which allows anyone with a better mouse-trap to compete, is what will ensure that the United States remains the world’s greatest superpower of innovation.
–Elon–

For more information see the SpaceX website.

Russia Has Concerns for SpaceX Safety for Docking to ISS

A concept drawing of the Dragon spacecraft approaching the ISS. Credit: SpaceX

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While a test of SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft docking capabilities with the International Space Station is tentatively scheduled for December, 2011, Russia has said it will not allow a SpaceX vehicle to dock with the ISS unless its safety is fully tested. “We will not issue docking permission unless the necessary level of reliability and safety is proven,” said Alexei Krasov, head of the human spaceflight department of Roscosmos. “So far we have no proof that those spacecraft duly comply with the accepted norms of spaceflight safety.”

NASA has not yet commented on the statement by Krasov, which was reported by the Russian media.

SpaceX has requested NASA to authorize the docking in December after another test flight of the Dragon sometime this summer. As it stands now, approximately twelve cargo resupply flights are planned by SpaceX through 2015, and SpaceX CEO has said he would like to start crewed flights by 2016.

Some critics are viewing Russia’s objections as having little to do with safety and more to do with the monopoly it will have for access to the ISS once the space shuttle program concludes later this summer. Russia has raised its going rates for ferrying US astronauts to the space station on the Soyuz space craft and for bringing cargo with the Progress craft resupply ship.

Source: Space Travel

More Images, Details on SpaceX’s Dragon Flight

The Dragon spacecraft, in excellent condition after its 50,000 mile mission, rests in its cradle for the 500 mile ride back to Los Angeles.

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SpaceX has released more images and more details about the successful flight of Falcon 9 and the Dragon capsule that took place on December 8, making SpaceX the first commercial company in history to re-enter a spacecraft from Earth orbit. Here’s an image of Dragon safely on board a ship after splashdown. SpaceX said Dragon orbited the Earth at speeds greater than 7,600 meters per second (17,000 miles per hour), reentered the Earth’s atmosphere, and landed less than one mile from the center of the targeted landing zone in the Pacific Ocean. Wow, that’s some pretty good precision. See more images and details of the flight below.

The above image also shows a look at Dragon’s PICA-X heat shield, which SpaceX says is highly advanced. They worked closely with NASA to develop the heat shield, a variant of NASA’s Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heat shield, which NASA used for the Stardust sample capsule returned, which set the record for the fastest reentry speed of a spacecraft into Earth’s atmosphere — experiencing speeds of 46,510 kph (28,900 mph).

NASA made its expertise and specialized facilities available to SpaceX as the company designed, developed and qualified the 3.6 meter PICA-X shield in less than 4 years at a fraction of the cost NASA had budgeted for the effort. The result is the most advanced heat shield ever to fly. SpaceX said one heat shield can potentially be used hundreds of times for Earth orbit reentry with only minor degradation each time, and that this flight proved it. During the press conference following the successful flight of Dragon, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said this heat shield could even withstand the much higher heat of a moon or Mars velocity reentry.

The Falcon 9 launch vehicle carrying the Dragon spacecraft, climbing from the launch pad. Credit: SpaceX/Chris Thompson

SpaceX said all nine Merlin engines performed “nominally,” which means they worked wonderfully. Together, the rocket engines generate one million pounds of thrust in vacuum, getting the entire stack off the ground and powering the first phase of flight. The rocket reached maximum dynamic pressure (the point at which aerodynamic stress on a spacecraft in atmospheric flight is maximized, also known as Max Q) approximately 1.5 minutes after launch. The first stage separation occurred a little over three minutes into flight.

After stage separation, flames are barely visible around nozzle as the second stage engine ignites and the first stage falls back to the Earth below. Credit: SpaceX

The single Merlin Vacuum engine of Falcon 9’s second stage then ignited to continue carrying the vehicle towards its targeted orbit. After stage separation, the nose cap at the front of the Dragon spacecraft safely jettisoned. The second stage fired for another four and a half minutes, until it achieved orbital velocity, and then the Dragon spacecraft separated from the second stage to begin its independent flight.

High contrast view of the Dragon spacecraft (circle at center) viewed from the top of the second stage as it departs over the curved horizon of the Earth. The rectangles indicate locations of three of the nano satellite deploying P-PODs carried on this mission. Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX said Dragon’s first-ever on-orbit performance was 100% successful in meeting test objectives including maintaining attitude, thermal control, and communication activities. While in orbit, eight free-flying payloads were successfully deployed, including a U.S. Army nanosatellite—the first Army-built satellite to fly in 50 years.

After separation of the Dragon spacecraft, the second stage Merlin engine restarted, carrying the second stage to an altitude of 11,000 km (6,800 mi). While restart of the second stage engine was not a requirement for this mission (or any future missions to the ISS), it is important for future Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) missions, where SpaceX hopes to bring satellites for paying customers.

View from orbit from the side window of the Dragon spacecraft, received via video as it passed over Hawaii during its first orbit. Credit: SpaceX

What’s the view like from inside Dragon? Here’s a view looking out Dragon’s porthole, with a view of Hawaii. After the second stage separated, there was an expected loss of signal as the Dragon spacecraft passed over the horizon as viewed from the launch site. At that point, SpaceX activated Dragon’s video signal from a camera set up inside the capsule, delivering the first ever video sent from Dragon on orbit.

The SpaceX crew brought Dragon back to the barge where the crane lifted it from the water. Credit: SpaceX/Mike Althofen

For this first flight under the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program, everything went perfectly, with a nominal flight profile that included a roughly 9.5-minute ascent, two Earth-orbits, reentry and splashdown. Falcon 9 delivered Dragon to orbit with an inclination of 34.53 degrees—a near bull’s-eye insertion, according to SpaceX.

Now, on to the next demonstration flight, which will go to the International Space Station, and maybe even dock, if SpaceX has anything to say about it.


See our previous gallery of images and videos from the launch.

Source: SpaceX

SpaceX Reveals Dragon’s “Secret” Payload

What was SpaceX's secret payload? Credit: SpaceX

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During Wednesday’s post-flight press conference, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed the rumor of a secret payload on board the Dragon spacecraft, but said he wouldn’t reveal what it actually was until Thursday. He did say, however that if you liked Monty Python, you would like this payload.

True to his word, SpaceX just issued a press release on what was inside this container, above, that was bolted to the floor of the Dragon spacecraft.

See below.

Top Secret payload revealed. Photo Credit: Chris Thompson, SpaceX

It was a wheel of cheese, which references a classic skit from Monty Python’s Flying Circus, where actor John Cleese tries to order cheese from a cheese shop that has no cheese.

A skit about cheese doesn’t sound funny, but it is. 42 different kinds of cheese are mentioned in the skit; the kind on board Dragon was Le Brouere cheese.

Many fellow journalists speculating on Twitter agreed that the secret payload was likely a can of Spam — which would reference both Monty Python’s hit “Spamalot” as well as pilot Chuck Yeager’s admonition that early astronauts were just like “Spam in a can.”

The SpaceX Business Plan: Help Build a Spacefaring Civilization

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Elon Musk conceded that the space business world is an extraordinarily difficult place to make money. But that isn’t his main priority anyway.

“The reason I’m doing SpaceX,” Musk said during the Falcon 9/Dragon post-flight press conference, “is that I just happen to have a very strong passion for space and I want us to become true spacefaring civilization and even a multi-planetary civilization. That is my goal for SpaceX.”

“Other companies have profit goals and such, but for SpaceX it is really about furthering the cause of space,” Musk continued. “We must bring in more money that we spend, but maximizing profitability is not really what it is about.”

Musk said he has been upfront with investors in SpaceX that a high profit margin is not his priority, “and so they can’t be mad when that doesn’t happen.”

He added that he wants to make science fiction –“what you read about the future,” — to become reality.

The discussion of profit started when Musk revealed that the Falcon 9 second stage was restarted and flew to 11,000 km (6,800 miles) to release some secondary satellite payloads, including a U.S. Army nanosatellite. SpaceX was paid minimally for only some of those payloads, Musk said.

Wednesday’s test flight was the first of three financed by NASA under a $278 million Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) agreement, the main cog of a program designed to encourage commercial space companies to develop rockets and spacecraft to deliver cargo – and later perhaps crew — to the International Space Station after the space shuttle is retired next year.

The interior configuration of the Dragon capsule. Credit: SpaceX

After the Dragon’s initial success, Musk said he hopes NASA will consider allowing Dragon to go directly to the International Space Station on the next flight, estimated to take place in mid-2011. Since Dragon is capable of carrying 5987 kg (13,200 pounds) of cargo in pressurized and unpressurized cargo bays, it can bring more than twice as much cargo as Russian Progress resupply ships.

Musk also thinks Dragon can compete with Lockheed’s Orion capsule, the only part of the Constellation Program that NASA has maintained.

“What I’m hopeful for is that NASA may consider the Dragon as good as Orion,” Musk said. “It is good to have multiple companies doing something, so Lockheed has Orion and we have Dragon and we would certainly like to have Dragon considered for anything that Orion could do. Perhaps we could do more because our heat shield is significantly more advanced.”

While Musk said SpaceX could not have gotten where it is today without NASA’s support and path-making, Alan Lindenmoyer, manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew and Cargo Program Office, said with the success of this flight, the benefits might be going both ways.

“As much as SpaceX is learning from NASA, there are certainly things we can learn from SpaceX,” he said.

Gallery: Dragon/Falcon 9 Launch and Recovery Photos, Videos

Falcon 9 launch with Dragon. Credit: SpaceX

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Enjoy a few glimpses at history from the Dec. 8 launch of Falcon 9 and Dragon.

Falcon 9 launch with Dragon. Credit: SpaceX
SpaceX successfully launched its Falcon 9 rocket at 10:43 a.m. EDT. Credit: Alan Walters (awaltersphoto.com) for Universe Today.
SpaceX successfully launched its Falcon 9 rocket. Credit: Alan Walters (awaltersphoto.com) for Universe Today.

Here is video from a camera on Dragon while in orbit.

Dragon descends via parachute. Credit: SpaceX
Dragon recovery. Credit: SpaceX

And for good measure, here’s the launch video again:

NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden’s statement on the success of the launch:

The Future is Now: SpaceX Flight 100% Successful

SpaceX successfully launched its Falcon 9 rocket. Credit: Alan Walters (awaltersphot.com) for Universe Today.

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Hailed as a both a great day for commercial spaceflight as well as for NASA, SpaceX made history on Wednesday with a 100% successful test flight of its Dragon capsule and Falcon 9 rocket. “This is a new way of doing business,” said Alan Lindenmoyer manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew and Cargo Program Office, “and I would say today this is an indication that this public/private partnership is working and has proven to be successful. Thanks to SpaceX for the early Christmas present – this is a great way to start the holidays.”

At the press conference following the flight, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk at first appeared to be speechless: “Really, this has been better than I expected,” he said. “It all went right. I am sort of in semi shock—I wish I could be more articulate in moments like this, bit it’s hard to be articulate with a blown mind!”

But Musk soon found his words – and lots of them (with many great quotes, so keep reading…)

SpaceX successfully launched its Falcon 9 rocket. Credit: Alan Walters (awaltersphoto.com) for Universe Today.

Lindenmoyer said SpaceX’s accomplishments are quite an achievement, since over the last 20 years, for new launch vehicles only about 50% of them are success are successful on their first or second flights, and only 1 out of 3 new vehicles have two successful flights in a row, which SpaceX has achieved.

Musk said the success really shouldn’t be a surprise since the Dragon spacecraft has so many redundancies: 18 thruster engines instead of 9, 3 parachutes when they really could land with one, extra thermal protection, and a very advanced heat shield. But in the end, SpaceX didn’t need to use any of the backup systems.

Preliminary data said the Dragon reentered the atmosphere spot on at a 12% angle of attack, with 2% dispersion. “This is a testament to the incredible work of the people at SpaceX,” he said. “Everyone did their jobs so well.”

Musk also emphasize that his company couldn’t have gotten to where they are without NASA, in not only monetary support ($278 million for the COTS program), but in leading the way in spaceflight.

“The core concepts of Falcon 9 and Dragon were demonstrated decades ago by NASA, and its an old saying, but we are only here because we stand on the shoulders of giants. So thank you,” he said.

Musk noted a few key things about the flight: The restart of Falcon 9’s second stage went perfectly; the second stage as restarted after the release of Dragon, and rose to an altitude of more than 11,000 km (6,800 miles), Musk said. Secondary satellite payloads of nanosatellites were released during the flight. And, Musk added, that altitude was with the trimmed, repaired nozzle. Reaching an altitude that high was not part of SpaceX’s primary objectives, but nice to have, Musk said.

Dragon went to an altitude of 300 km.

Musk also stressed that the difference between this Dragon capsule and one that could carry people isn’t that different.

“People sometimes think the different between cargo and crew required enormous amount of magical pixie dust,” he said “This is not the case. If there would have been people sitting in Dragon today, they would have had a nice ride, feeling about 4-5 G’s, which is about what an amusement park ride is like,” with an 8 meter per second descent speed which is quite comfortable from a landing perspective.

Image of Dragon capsule recovery efforts. Credit: SpaceX

The only differences, Musk said, would be the addition of a launch escape system. And, he revealed, what SpaceX really hopes to do with future spacecraft is not a splashdown in the ocean but a propulsive landing on the ground.

“The architecture you saw today was similar to what was employed in Apollo era, but we are aiming for propulsive landing with gear, kind of like the Eagle landing on the moon, and being able to take off again” he said. “Full reusability of Dragon and Falcon 9 is important as well, and something we want to figure out over time.”

Musk also said this mission didn’t have many significant differences in one that would send the Dragon the ISS. “In our discussions with NASA they said if this flight went well they would strongly consider letting us go to the space station on next mission,” he said. “I hope that is what NASA will allow us to do, we need to still examine the data from this mission first, but I’m highly optimistic. There are additional elements to be added to Dragon such as solar panels and redundancy on flight computers and electronics, but feel highly confident we could make it to the ISS on our next flight by middle of next year.”

Today’s flight tested the fundamentals of a heat shield and precision landing. Musk said the performance of heat shield was spectacular, and projected that is could not only handle Earth reentry, but also lunar and Mars reentry.

SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell noted some other technical details, of how Dragon was able to maintain attitude and thermal control, as well as maintain communications with ground stations and TEDRIS satellites, which requires specific directional pointing.

The entire launch and two orbit flight took 3 hours 19 min 52 seconds, and initial data said they landed within 10 km of their target, and a communiqué from the Air force said Dragon came within 800 meters.

Asked about the flame flare that came about 2 seconds after launch, Musk said the first look by engineers said it was a check valve on the second stage umbilical that came off and caught fire as the spacecraft engines passed by — not an explosion but a just little fire.

Musk said the point in the flight where he felt the most jubilation and great relief was when the parachutes deployed. “Drogue and main chute deploy were riskiest parts, so when that happened, it was done deal. Just mind-blowingly awesome.”

Asked if the success today would silence any of SpaceX’s critics, Musk said, “I think if there really are people who are going still find a way to cast aversions on what we’ve done today, I pity them. It just wouldn’t make any sense.”

He said politicians who initially wanted to cut commercial crew funds from NASA’s budget soon learned that such a move would not decrease but increase the deficit and also meant increased time with no American access to space. “I think some politicians were initially mislead, but then they realized the value of commercial crew, which is why it the cuts didn’t make it into the final report.”

Asked about the differences in Dragon and NASA’s Orion spacecraft, Musk said that Space X would probably be the most rapid path to an American crew transport system. “If we would have had people on this flight we would have taken them to orbit and returned them safely,” he said. “Going to a crew system is just adding some additional safety systems for highly off nominal activities. Even for cargo missions we will be carrying plants and animals so I think we are in a very strong position to be one of the winners of the commercial crew contract.”

Musk added that competition is good, however, and NASA shouldn’t be too dependent on one company,” so hopefully there will be two or maybe three commercial crew providers and hopefully we are one of them.”
Musk agreed with Lindenmoyer on how this appears to vindicate the public/private model of space flight and shows that the commercial model works just as well in space flight as in air flight, or other arenas.

“The air mail program was a huge boost when the Post Office went commercial,” he said “and that resulted in explosion of innovation and improvement in technology. It really was the dawn of aviation in American where it went from joy rides that rich people could do, to today where aviation is accessible to almost everyone. I think historically COTS program will be seen in that light.”

On board Dragon was a few small satellites, and look for Musk to reveal tomorrow the nature of a humorous item that was on board. “I’m not going to reveal it today, as I don’t want some of the editors to use it in the first headlines,” he said. “It is kind of funny and if you like Monty Python you’ll like this one.”

Spam in a can?

Universe Today extends their congratulations to SpaceX. The future appears to be now.

SpaceX Delays Falcon 9 Launch Attempt To Dec. 9

Success for SpaceX static test fire of Falcon 9. Credit: SpaceX

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SpaceX will delay the launch attempt of the Falcon 9 rocket until at least Thursday, Dec. 9. At a press conference today, company president Gwynne Shotwell said a final review of closeout photos this morning found some indications of a potential issue on a second stage nozzle. Reports from journalist Robert Pearlman on Twitter said the Falcon 9 had been lowered from the vertical launch position. And Shotwell said if they have to replace the nozzle, the launch would be no earlier than Friday, Dec. 10.

“During an inspection of final closeout photos they determined there were some indications in a weld joint that they wanted to take some additional steps to look at,” said Shotwell, “and they brought the vehicle down to horizontal. I believe it is back up to vertical now.” When asked for details, Shotwell said “porosity and potential cracking in a weld joint.”

There were some weather concerns for the early to mid part of this week, but the weather improves later in the week, so perhaps the delay was going to happen anyway.

This is the first demonstration launch for NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program, with a functional Dragon capsule.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has said he thinks they have a 70% chance of successful first flight of the Falcon 9/Dragon capsule.

Shotwell agreed, saying history predicts SpaceX will likely have a substantial issue to deal with in this test flight.

“Given we got Falcon 9 to orbit on our first test flight, I’d say 70% for this flight, too,” she said.

At the press conference, NASA’s Phil McAlister, from the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation, provided some insight into NASA’s thinking on if there were to be substantial problems with any of the COTS test flights. “We expect anomalies and the purpose of a test flight is to find the problems,” he said. “We won’t know until the end of the program if we’ve been completely successful, but to date this has been remarkably successful. Even if we have a bad day on this flight, for example, we expect to move forward. It is not a condition that every test flights be successful. We are committed to learn from each flight. But we would certainly like to have a a successful flight. So far we are on very good track and we will learn a lot from this test flight and move forward regardless of the outcome.”

The key milestones for this flight are a successful launch, separation of the Dragon vehicle from the rocket and successful reentry of Dragon.

No matter the outcome of this flight, SpaceX plans on having next Dragon flight ready by late spring/early summer 2011.

For the future, McAlister also said that he believe competition is very important, and that NASA would like to have at least 2 cargo service companies. “We would like to have routine, cost effective cargo services to LEO by 2020.”

Shotwell said it would be at least two and a half to three years after the cargo program is initiated is the first chance for astronauts to be ferried on board the Dragon capsule.